The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes like we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week, we have a 10-game slate due to bye weeks. Between bye weeks and injuries, we have to dig a little deep for the value plays. Let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 11
Quarterbacks
Since Week 6, grizzled veteran Joe Flacco leads the quarterback position in fantasy points per game, averaging 25.5 per contest. In that same stretch, he is fourth in passing yards, tied for third in passing touchdowns and has only thrown two interceptions. The 40-year-old has been getting it done and revived the fantasy upside of both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
This week, the Bengals face a divisional rival in the Pittsburgh Steelers, and it is a glorious matchup. On the season, they allow the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They are allowing 290.7 passing yards, the most in the league, and 1.7 passing touchdowns on a per-game basis.
In their last meeting, Flacco lit them up for 342 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Flacco does not have the upside of a rushing quarterback; in fact, his trying to scramble moderately resembles a giraffe on a tricycle. It is all knees, elbows and awkwardness. What he lacks in that department is partially made up for in sheer volume, as he has the third-highest pass attempts since Week 6.
Flacco is a volume monster and offers three stacking options at a cost that allows for it. He can be used in cash contests, but is preferred in GPPs.
Let’s just go over some expectations here. Is the matchup good? No. The Packers have a good defense, averaging as the 13th-toughest defense against quarterbacks. Do we have any seasonal data to build any trends on? Also no. So, that leaves us strolling down narrative street based on what factors we do have. The Giants’ defense allows the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Meaning, the Giants are going to be playing from behind at some point.
On a neutral game script, Jameis Winston remains a gunslinger-type quarterback. If playing from behind, that only amplifies his proclivity to sling the ball.
The matchup is not great, but it is conducive to volume. Winston could end this game with close to 300 yards, three scores and four interceptions. (The Packers could wind up as the highest scoring defense on this slate, by the way.)
Winston is a high-variance play that could completely bomb or lead the slate in passing yards with very little middle ground. He is best utilized for GPP contests for users who roll out multiple lineups.
Running Backs
Woody Marks has shown flashes of his big-play ability this season. However, he has remained inconsistent from a production standpoint. Through nine games, he has finished inside RB1 territory only twice. He is averaging 9.7 PPR points on a per-contest basis. He has shown both ceiling and floor production. Last week, he finished with 16 total touches, 81 scrimmage yards and one score, leading to an RB11 PPR finish for the week.
This week, Marks draws a Titans defense that he carved up for 119 scrimmage yards and two scores in their last tilt. Tennessee has been generous to opposing running backs, allowing the second-most fantasy production to the position. On average, they allow 114.3 rushing yards and 21.2 receiving yards per contest.
Coachspeak is what it is. Sometimes the words said come to fruition, sometimes it is nothing more than just words. Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is quoted as saying, “Woody has done a great job, we gotta continue to feed him more.”
Marks is in a good spot from both the matchup and the perceived volume. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.
Last week, Emari Demercado, working on sub-50% of the offensive snaps, turned seven touches into 104 total yards. He ran explosively, despite the limited snap share. He has finished as an RB3 or better in three of his last four games, making him viable as an upside Flex play this week.
The 49ers are finally starting to show signs of health. Brock Purdy is expected to return. Christian McCaffrey is healthy. George Kittle is back. They will look to once again be the efficient offense they have become known for over the last several seasons. Points shall accrue, and Demercado can benefit in both neutral and negative game script situations.
The 49ers allow the 17th-most (15th-fewest, for those who want additional clarity) fantasy points to the position. However, they are allowing the 12th-most receiving yards to the position, a skill that is in Demercado’s toolbox.
This is not a smash spot for Demercado, or this offense. It is a potentially good play at a value, based on the game script and role. He is in Flex consideration for GPP contests this week.
Wide Receivers
With J.J. McCarthy manning the helm, Jordan Addison is seeing just above a 19% target share. While that has only resulted in one red-zone target, there have been three deep targets to complement his usage. While defensive schemes are going to be Justin Jefferson-heavy, Addison is a crack that could bust open. In four out of his six games, Addison has finished as a WR2 or better in PPR scoring formats. He is averaging 65.3 receiving yards per contest and has scored twice.
Chicago’s defense allows the 15th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They’re also allowing more production to perimeter receivers than slot receivers.
Addison is a shot play for this slate. If the defense is focused on trying to contain Jefferson, Addison is the beneficiary of softer coverage. He is big-play reliant, creating risk versus reward, and most likely is looking for a score to make a strong production versus salary. Therefore, he is better suited to GPP contests. With a 48.5 over/under, his opportunity to be impactful is worth the salary and the risk that comes with it.
Back in Week 1, Calvin Austin was the WR12 in half-PPR scoring for the week. It was his best finish of the season, thus far. Since then, he has turned in one WR3 performance. The interesting part is that it is not like DK Metcalf is dominating the targets or production. Austin is still seeing a 16% target share but, more importantly, a 21% first-read share.
The Bengals’ secondary fares better than their front line. They currently allow a near-neutral 15th-most fantasy production to the position. Assuming DJ Turner is following Metcalf, that mainly puts Cam Taylor-Britt in coverage. Taylor-Britt has not been a scary matchup this season.
Austin represents a higher-end Flex play in the right lineup and is best utilized in GPP contests for this slate. Sometimes, we just get a feeling about a player and a matchup. Austin fits that bill for at least one humble fantasy wordsmith for this matchup.
Tight Ends
Oronde Gadsden has been the surprise out of Los Angeles this season for the Chargers. The exciting rookie is holding pace and climbing as the TE10 in fantasy points per game. Despite an early exit last week, due to injury, Gadsden had already drawn six targets. In his eight games played, he has posted TE2 or better weekly performances in five of them.
This week, the Chargers face the Jaguars, who allow the second-most production to the position this season. While fortuitous with some of their takeaways, they are less stingy with tight ends. They allow 72.6 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game to tight ends
Gadsden is a good play in both cash and GPP contests. Due to cost, he probably fits better as a cash game option for this slate.
Kyle Pitts heads into Week 11 with one touchdown to his credit this season, and that was back in Week 4. Despite a healthy 6.5 targets per game, Pitts is once again proving to be difficult to trust as a fantasy option. Including the aforementioned targets, Pitts is seeing some positives. He has the sixth-most targets and the 11th-most yards among his fellow tight ends.
The big statistical barrier separating him from being viewed differently? Touchdowns. Statistically speaking, he should be sitting on around three more scores based on volume in the position. Positive regression is coming. The Panthers’ defense allows the eighth-most fantasy points to the position. They also allow, on average, 0.5 receiving touchdowns per contest.
Regression is coming for Pitts, who has actually put together a decent season. His salary is suppressed due to his lack of scoring. This could be a get-right game for him in this matchup. He is a GPP candidate for lineups for this slate.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
