Here are my fantasy football rankings, tiers and outlook for notable players Week 16.
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Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Week 16
Quarterbacks Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Quarterbacks
In his nine games as a starter for the Cardinals, Jacoby Brissett is averaging 42.8 pass attempts, 28.4 completions, 300.9 passing yards, and 2.0 TD passes per game. Brissett has had at least 40 pass attempts in all but two of those nine games. He’s QB4 in fantasy points per game since taking over as Arizona’s starter. Brissett was QB12 last week against the Texans, and the Houston defense is nasty. This week he gets the Falcons – a neutral matchup at worst. And the Cardinals figure to be pass-heavy yet again because they have so many injuries at running back. Consider Brissett a midrange QB1.
Since the Cowboys’ Week 10 bye, Dak Prescott is QB3 in fantasy points per game (21.3). Only Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence have scored more points per game at the QB position over that span. But Dak has a tough matchup against the Chargers this Sunday. The Chargers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. They have the lowest opponent passer rating in the league and have allowed a league-low 12 TD passes. The Chargers are giving up just 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Maybe Dak can overcome the difficult matchup. He’s got two outstanding receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, along with some other useful weapons like Jake Ferguson and the surging Ryan Flournoy. But I do think it’s reasonable to lower expectations for Dak. I’m ranking him as a low-end QB1.
The Minnesota Vikings have been a brutal matchup for quarterbacks lately, so I have no interest in starting Jaxson Dart against them this week. Minnesota has not given up a touchdown pass since Lamar Jackson had one against them on Nov. 9. That’s five straight games without allowing a TD pass. And the Vikings had held opposing quarterbacks under 200 passing yards in five straight games before Dak Prescott broke the streak against them last week with 294 yards. Dart offers rushing value, but it’s hard to see him doing much as a passer against the Vikings. I’m ranking Dart as a midrange QB2, and even that seems generous.
Running Backs Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Running Backs
It seemed as if the Giants’ backfield was shifting toward Devin Singletary in the run-up to Week 15, but then Tyrone Tracy played 76.5% of the offensive snaps last week against the Commanders and had 15 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown, along with three catches for 27 yards and another touchdown. Now, Tracy gets a matchup against the Vikings, who are much easier to run on than they are to throw on. Minnesota’s defense is a run funnel. The Vikings have faced the most rushing attempts by opposing running backs (26.6 RB carries per game). And as a former college wide receiver, Tracy is obviously a capable pass catcher. I see him as a midrange RB2 this week.
Bam Knight injured his ankle on the Cardinals’ first offensive play last week against the Texans and was carted off the field. Michael Carter played 53 snaps after Knight left, while Emari Demercado played only seven snaps. Carter finished with 14 carries for 56 yards and four catches for 38 yards against a Houston defense than might be the best in the league. Carter has dual run/catch ability, and his matchup against the Falcons this week is much softer than last week’s matchup against the Texans. It’s possible Demercado plays a bigger role, but it seems like Carter is the preferred back with Knight out of the picture. I’m aggressively ranked Carter inside the top 20 at the RB position,
I wouldn’t be excited about rolling out Quinshon Judkins in a fantasy semifinal. Since Week 6, Judkins has averaged 3.1 yards per carry. He’s averaged under 2.0 yards per carry in each of his last two games, and those two games were against the Titans and Bears – not very good run defenses. I don’t have a great deal of faith that Judkins will be able to take advantage of a bad Bills run defense this weekend – particularly when his offensive line is so banged up. Ethan Pocic is out. Jack Conklin, Wyatt Teller and Zak Zinter are all questionable. And while Judkins catches some passes, he doesn’t really move the needle as a pass catcher, with 21 receptions for 142 yards in 14 games. I’m ranking Judkins as a low-end RB2.
Not only has Rico Dowdle been sharing more work with Chuba Hubbard lately, but Dowdle has averaged 3.2 yards per carry in four of his last five games, and other than the Rams, none of those games were against top run defenses. This week, Dowdle faces the Buccaneers, who are solid against the run but awful against the pass. Consider Dowdle a high-end RB3.
Am I gullible to be buying into Tony Pollard‘s recent surge? Suddenly the Titans’ running game is working. Pollard has two straight 100-yard rushing games with three TD runs in those two games. He’s averaged 6.8 yards per carry over the last two weeks. Pollard is also within reach of some contract incentives for rushing yardage and touchdown runs. I think he’s a playable high-end RB3 this week against the Chiefs, who have nothing to play for after losing to the Chargers last week.
After Devin Neal left the Saints’ Week 15 game with a hamstring injury, Audric Estime and Evan Hull split RB duties for the Saints. I think Estime is a better play than Hull this week, although it’s hard to tell how the Saints will deploy their RBs, and hybrid TE Taysom Hill could be involved as a runner, too. It was kind of interesting that Estime had three catches for 39 yards last week and Hull had zero catches, considering that Audric Estime had 26 catches in his college career and Evan Hull had 94. Estime was the more accomplished college runner, and On Sunday he’ll face a Jets defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points to RBs. I’m ranking Estime as a low-end RB3.
Wide Receivers Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Wide Receivers
Jauan Jennings has scored four touchdowns in his last three games, and six touchdowns in his last six games. His yardage totals haven’t been quite as impressive. Only once in his last 10 games has Jennings topped 54 receiving yards. But Ricky Pearsall aggravated the PCL injury in his knee last week and also sprained his ankle. It still seems unlikely that Pearsall will play against the Colts on Monday. If Pearsall is out, Jennings will have an enhanced target outlook against a Colts defense that won’t have CB Charvarius Ward (who’s on IR due to multiple concussions) and may or may not get Sauce Gardner back from a calf injury. Jennings profiles as a high-end WR2.
I have to admit that I’m not sure how to rank Jaylen Waddle this week. I’m not especially excited about how the QB change from Tua Tagovailoa to Quinn Ewers might affect Waddle. But it’s not as if Tua was Dan Marino, and it’s not as if Ewers can’t throw a spiral. Perhaps the greater concern is that Waddle is likely to see a lot of Bengals CB D.J. Turner, who has allowed just 27 catches for 396 yards on throws into his coverage this season, according to PFF. I’m ranking Waddle as a low-end WR2. He’s going to make for some tricky start/sit decisions in Week 16.
Over his last four games, Ladd McConkey has 10 catches for 84 yards and one touchdown on 18 targets. That works out to 4.5 targets, 2.5 catches and 21 yards per game. McConkey is WR70 in PPR fantasy points per game over that stretch. The downturn isn’t really McConkey’s fault. The Chargers’ offensive line is has been unable to adequately protect Justin Herbert, who’s thrown for 220 or fewer yards in five straight games. But we know how good McConkey is, and he has a matchup against a Dallas defense that’s given up more fantasy points to wide receivers this season than any other. I’ve got McConkey ranked as a high-end WR3, and no doubt he’s going to be involved in a lot of tough start/sit calls this week.
Last week was just the second time since Week 5 that Emeka Egbuka has hit double-digit PPR points, and he just barely got there with 10.4. On one hand, the return of Mike Evans would seem to make Egbuka less playable for fantasy since the target outlook for Egbuka isn’t as bright with Evans around. On the other hand, Egbuka scored three touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season when Evans was healthy, and Egbuka’s 9.1 yards per target last week was the best YPT number he’s posted for a single game since Week 5. I’m hedging with my ranking of Egbuka, slotting him in as a midrange WR3.
It seems like Jayden Reed is a rankings darling this week. I don’t really understand the enthusiasm. Reed has played 40 career games, including playoff games, and has seen more than six targets in only 17.5% of those games. Only once since his rookie year in 2023 has Reed had more than six targets in a game. Reed typically doesn’t play in two-receiver sets for the Packers, so his snap shares typically hover around 60%. Even if Christian Watson is out this week — and Watson says he expects to play — Reed is still unlikely to play in two-receiver sets. The one thing working in Reed’s favor is the matchup against the Bears, who are going to be without injured slot corner Kyler Gordon. I have Reed ran ked as a low-end WR3.
Tight Ends Rankings & Tiers
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Tight Ends
Would you believe that Dalton Schultz has 70 catches this season? A stealth fantasy option, Schultz has drawn eight or more targets in five of his last seven games. Although he’ll be facing a Raiders defense that has been surprisingly stingy against tight ends, Schultz should be considered a midrange to low-end TE1.
Yes, tight ends have been bashing the Bengals all season. Cincinnati has given up the most fantasy points to TEs by far. But I’m finding it hard to get excited about Darren Waller this week despite his matchup against the Bengals. Part of it is that I don’t trust rookie QB Quinn Ewers, who was named the Dolphins’ new starting quarterback earlier this week. Part of it is that Waller’s fantasy value has been so TD-dependent. He’s had six touchdowns in seven games this season, but Waller is averaging a modest 34.7 receiving yards a game. And part of it is that Waller isn’t exactly a conventional tight end – he’s more like a big X receiver – so does the matchup bump apply here? I’m regarding Waller as a high-end TE2.
It was nice to see Oronde Gadsden II resurface last week after a very quiet four-game stretch. Gadsden had 4-61-0 against the Chiefs last week on five targets. In his previous four games, he’s had seven receptions for 88 yards and no touchdowns. It would be hard to confidently start Gadsden when Justin Herbert has thrown for 220 or fewer yards in five straight games with five touchdown passes over that stretch. Gadsden is a high-end TE2 vs. the Cowboys.
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