Fantasy Football Week 16 Start/Sit Advice: 12 Sleepers & Duds (2025)

Week 16 fantasy football is here, which means the margin for error is thinner than your FAAB budget in October. Most leagues are deep into the second round of the fantasy playoffs, where one bold start or one ill-timed dud can be the difference between a championship run and aggressively pretending you “didn’t really care this year anyway.” There’s no room left for vibes-only lineup decisions. Now it’s about squeezing every last edge out of matchups, roles, and trends.

That’s where this list comes in. Below, you’ll find Week 16 sleepers and duds pulled directly from our Featured Pros, highlighting players they’re confident can swing matchups in either direction. Whether you’re chasing upside or just trying to avoid a catastrophic zero, these expert-backed start/sit insights are designed to help you survive another week — and keep the dream alive.

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Fantasy Football Week 16 Start/Sit Advice

Sleepers

Which player outside of the top 100 in the FantasyPros Flex rankings is a good sleeper start, and why do you think he has upside this week?

Audric Estime (RB – NO)

“I was shocked to see Audric Estime looking so explosive with some late-game receiving work against Carolina. If Devin Neal can’t go this week, I’m interested in Estime as a sneaky play against the Jets.”
– Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)

“If the Saints are down both Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal in Week 16, Audric Estime could make for an interesting flex play. The Jets have given up the 2nd most points to RBs this year, and are just coming off a week in which they conceded four touchdowns to the position, three receiving scores from Travis Etienne Jr., and one from Bhaysul Tuten. If Estime can get the lead snaps, he will face competition from Evan Hull. Estime could make for a worthwhile start in the fantasy semifinals this week.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

“Devin Neal and Alvin Kamara owners need to pick up Audric Estime. When Neal went down last week, Estime came in and had three receptions for 39 yards and 11 yards rushing on three carries. If Neal and Kamara don’t play, Estime could be elevated to the RB1 role and be a decent flex option for teams limping through the playoffs against a downtrodden Jets defense.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

“A strong sleeper start for Round 2 of the fantasy playoffs is Audric Estime. With Devin Neal dealing with a hamstring injury and Alvin Kamara sidelined, Estime played 20 snaps and operated as the Saints’ primary receiving back last week. Even in a near 50/50 split with Evan Hull, Estime’s passing-game role raises his weekly floor, which is valuable for avoiding a dud. The matchup further boosts his upside, as the Jets rank 30th in defensive DVOA, 26th in points allowed, and are the second-easiest defense against running backs this season. If Neal and Kamara miss this week, volume combined with an exploitable matchup makes Estime a viable plug-and-play RB option in a pinch.”
– Ryan Linkletter (Blitz Sports Media)

“I suspect that Audric Estime won’t be outside the top 100 in ECR by Sunday. Devin Neal is banged up, and Alvin Kamara might not be ready to come back for the Saints, who have an attractive Week 16 matchup against the Jets. Estime and Hull split work last week after Neal left the game, and it was actually Estime who was more involved as a pass catcher, with three receptions for 39 yards. If Neal and Kamara are both out, Estime will be a viable starter in fantasy semifinals week.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“Audric Estime. If Devin Neal can’t go, I’d expect the former Notre Dame product to seize a decent-sized role in an awesome matchup. Estime ended out-touching Evan Hull last week after Neal’s departure while edging him out in total snaps (36% versus 32%). The Jets have allowed five straight top-10 fantasy RBs. Estime played 45% of the third-down snaps, which suggests he should remain involved in the passing game. He is also the more physically imposing back, measuring at 5-foot-11 and 227 pounds.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Matthew Golden (WR – GB)

Duds

Which player inside the top 40 in the FantasyPros Flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy managers this week?

RJ Harvey (RB – NO)

“RJ Harvey is a fantasy landmine this week. While he’s been a breakout star, his late-game rib injury is a big red flag, especially as the Broncos scrambled to claim Cody Schrader off waivers, making Harvey’s status shaky at best. Even if he does happen to suit up, he’s up against a brick wall; the Jaguars are the second-stingiest defense in the entire league when it comes to giving up fantasy points to running backs. Let’s be real, the injury plus a matchup against an elite rush defense equals a fantasy disaster. It’s a low-floor gamble that’s almost guaranteed to shatter your playoff dreams!”
– Luke Renton (The Franchise Tag UK)

“Not only is RJ Harvey dealing with an injury that could sideline him completely, but if he plays, he’ll be facing a Jacksonville front that has ceded just the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. And while their pass rush has been solid, it really has been their ability to shut down the run that has highlighted their rise in the AFC South over the past few weeks. Their 5-game win streak is highlighted by limiting Tony Pollard, Jonathan Taylor, and Breece Hall to a combined 172 total yards and 1 TD over the past 3 weeks. Harvey faces an uphill battle to even play, then an uphill battle to produce in an awful matchup. I’m sitting him everywhere I can this week.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

“Over the last three weeks, the Eagles haven’t allowed a receiver to score more than 7.6 PPR points, which means I’ll be avoiding all Commanders wideouts this week, specifically Terry McLaurin. Since his Week 13 return, McLaurin has scored twice and has delivered a top-10 and top-20 finish. However, this is the time of the year to trust the matchup data and pivot elsewhere if your roster has a better play on paper.”
– Matt De Lima (Athlon Sports)

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

“Breece Hall is tough to trust against the Saints this week. It’s a bad script to begin with, and the Jets are playing worse down the stretch. It doesn’t get better with Brady Cook, presumably the starting quarterback again, keeping your fantasy Jets off the field for sustained drives. You can’t score fantasy points from the sidelines. With the Saints playing better football lately, sit Breece Hall and all the fantasy Jets for that matter.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack)

“The lack of buoyancy in the Jets’ offense has finally taken down Breece Hall; he’s merely RB31 over the last five weeks, and he was losing work to Isaiah Davis in the loss to Jacksonville. Hall is a backed-into-a-corner play this week, not a proactive pick.”
– Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)

Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)

“Zay Flowers draws a very tough matchup this week versus the New England Patriots. New England is currently 18th against WRs in 2025, and while Flowers has been impressive over the past two weeks, he is still incredibly difficult to trust. In games where Zay Flowers has failed to score, all but two, he has only recorded double-digit half-PPR points five times. Flowers has to score in order to return any sort of value, and in a week with heavy playoff implications, that is simply too risky a start.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

George Pickens (WR – DAL)

“George Pickens looked like he was going to become the next top-tier wide receiver when CeeDee Lamb went down earlier in the year. CeeDee returned, and he had a few good games. Then, the last two weeks happened. Picken has 37 and 33 yards in weeks 14 and 15, respectively. Bring on the Chargers defense that has only allowed 12 TOTAL PASSING TOUCHDOWNS this year, and Pickens is sure to disappoint teams that he helped carry to the fantasy playoffs.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

“A player who could disappoint in Round 2 of the fantasy playoffs is George Pickens. You obviously can’t bench him given his season-long production, but the recent trend is concerning, as he’s turned 15 targets over the last two weeks into just eight catches, 110 yards, and 11 total fantasy points despite favorable matchups. There have also been visible effort issues, as Pickens drew criticism for his motor and continued to show lapses in Week 15, including giving up on routes and showing minimal urgency as a run blocker. The matchup this week is a major red flag, with the Chargers ranking 2nd in pass defense DVOA, allowing the 7th-fewest points to perimeter receivers, and giving up the fewest fantasy points per game overall. While Pickens still ranks 6th in targets, 5th in air yards, and 7th in points per game on the season, the combination of recent inefficiency and an elite defensive matchup makes him a notable bust candidate.”
– Ryan Linkletter (Blitz Sports Media)

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

“Josh Jacobs’ 2025 season resume is a bit baffling to me. How does a running back without a single 100-yard rushing game, fewer than 275 receiving yards, and 900 rushing yards rank 12th in the Week 15 rankings and seventh in Fantasy points for running backs? Touchdowns. He averages almost a touchdown per week, tying him for the third-best amongst running backs. As the sample size grows and the numbers continue to be there, the ranking is more and more justified, but I can’t buy into it. Christian Watson may be out, the Chicago Bears’ defense is solid, and this is a division game that could have an impact on the No. 1 seed and the division title. A ranking as high as 12th on a player who doesn’t catch the ball much and is a guarantee to NOT rush for 100 yards? 12th is WAY too high for my blood. In the playoffs, I’m not a fan of high floor, low ceiling, which is what Jacobs is. I could see a 55-total yard, no touchdown game being a season killer for Fantasy owners in this crucial playoff week.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)

Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)

“It’s going to be hard to trust Jaylen Waddle this week with the Dolphins making a QB change from Tua Tagovailoa to Quinn Ewers. It could work out well for Waddle and his fantasy investors. It could go terribly. And while the matchup against the Bengals seems appealing, Cincinnati has actually allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“Tua Tagovailoa has been benched in favor of rookie QB Quinn Ewers. Jaylen Waddle has been historically bad without his southpaw QB, being held under 55 receiving yards in 10/11 games without him since 2022. The Bengals defense has been stingy versus No. 1 WRs (top-5 fewest PPG to WRs), and trusting in rookie QBs to fuel fantasy success for wideouts is a fool’s errand. Cincy is best attacked through RBs and TEs, putting Waddle in a tough spot. Not to mention, the recent lack of passing volume in Miami’s offense (and the addition of Darren Waller) has hurt Waddle, given that he has been outside the top-45 WRs in two of the last three games.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

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