The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes as we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Last week’s article had some good hits: Brock Purdy (QB4), Wan’Dale Robinson (WR17), Jameson Williams (WR3) and Harold Fannin (TE11). Of course, there were some misses, too. All in all, not a bad week for some of the value plays.
This week, we have a full 13-game slate to dig into. DraftKings features an 11-game main slate. For our purposes, we are going to focus on Sunday’s slate. Let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 16
Quarterbacks
J.J. McCarthy’s career didn’t get off to a great start. However, he has made strides after missing his first season due to a knee injury. All tallied, he has five QB2 or better performances over his eight games played. Three of which were QB1 outings, with two being high-end QB2 numbers.
Yes, McCarthy has 11 passing touchdowns to 11 interceptions, but he has also added 154 rushing yards and three more scores on the ground. He appears to be turning the corner… just wish his game plan included Justin Jefferson. But I digress…
The Giants currently allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including the most rushing yardage at 25.5 yards per game. They have allowed 24 passing touchdowns to only five interceptions. If there is a game McCarthy might be able to stroll through without an interception, this one certainly looks attractive.
Just wait until McCarthy figures out that Jefferson is an elite and dynamic receiver. He profiles as a better play in GPP formats in a game that features a 43.5 projected total.
Death, taxes and Jacoby Brissett finishing as a weekly fantasy QB12 or better. Even against a stout Texans defense, he posted a QB12 finish. Brissett has been featured in this column before, and his cost has risen to some degree. But he finished ahead of Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love last week, while being less expensive.
Brissett is a reliable veteran presence who not only commands an offense but also limits mistakes. On the season, he has 18 passing touchdowns to only six interceptions, while adding 144 rushing yards and one more score.
The Falcons’ defense has shown improvement, moving to a more neutral position against quarterbacks. That should not scare DFS players away after he posted 249 yards and three touchdowns against the Texans last week. I’m not a bold predictions kind of analyst, but Brissett being a cog in a high finish for a player in the Milly Maker would not surprise me. He is consistent and has stacking options.
Brissett can work in both cash and GPP contests this week and can be used in multiple builds. Fire him up.
Running Backs
Remember when Hassan Haskins was touted as the “lead back” for the Chargers when rookie Omarion Hampton got injured? All that did was allow Kimani Vidal to flourish as the No. 1 RB during that stretch. Since Hampton’s return, Vidal has maintained nearly a 50% split in workload.
Hampton is $5,800 on DraftKings for this slate, so either works. However, if some managers are top-loading some of the bigger names, $500 in salary can be the difference in certain builds.
The Cowboys can and will score. This game features a 50-point over/under, and pieces of both offenses should be utilized. They allow the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. Vidal has operated as the preferred passing-down back, which can come into play in a high-scoring affair.
You can play Hampton this week, but Vidal’s game script might be more advantageous in a full PPR scoring format. Multiple lineup users should sprinkle dashes of both into their lineups this week. It is a good game to have pieces of both across this slate.
We are going to delve a little deep into the fantasy waters for this one. Alvin Kamara has been ruled out. Rookie backup Devin Neal (who was featured in last week’s article but got injured) has been placed on injured reserve (IR). Last week, Estime stepped into a 52% snap share and a 46% route share when his number was called.
While Evan Hull handled both red-zone rush attempts, Estime’s involvement and snap share are somewhat telling. This is a risky selection as the situation is murky. However, we have seen more production from Estime when called upon than Hull, both of whom played for different teams before ending up in New Orleans.
The Jets have been generous, allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs on a per-game basis. They have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and the second-most rushing touchdowns on the season. They are a little more stingy when it comes to passing to the position.
Estime is the expected leader of this backfield this week. He has Flex appeal and should be in consideration for GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Xavier Worthy might be a better fit in FanDuel’s scoring structure, but it is difficult not to see the upside here. Rashee Rice is out. The receiving room is thin. The running backs have been mediocre. The matchup is divine. Gardner Minshew is a solid and capable backup.
Worthy profiles as the closest 1:1 replacement for Rice’s role. In this role last year, Worthy hit a 21% target share. Granted, that was with Patrick Mahomes under center. Minshew carries some similar traits. He is a confident passer who can push the ball downfield. He has mobility as well. Neither to the extent of Mahomes, but he is a solid backup to fill in for the aforementioned injured quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Titans are a generous opponent for quarterbacks first and wide receivers second. They allow the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers and have allowed seven touchdowns since Week 10. While he may not command a high target share, Worthy is a big-play threat that can make his value on one or two receptions.
At his salary, Worthy should be viewed as a risk/reward player stepping into a role, albeit without Mahomes. He is a volatile, but high-ceiling GPP play for this slate.
Yes, we are going right back to Jameson Williams this week. Williams has become the receiver that was expected when he was drafted. He has seven WR2 or better finishes in 14 games, and nine or more targets in three of his last four games. In those games, he has gone over 100 yards twice, while hitting 96 yards in a third game, with two scores.
The Steelers allow the 11th-most fantasy points to the position. While they are trying to bracket Amon-Ra St. Brown, Williams is gaining separation on the perimeter. The Steelers allow 151.2 receiving yards and 1.1 touchdowns per contest.
Williams, much like Worthy, can make his points over cost on one or two plays. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this home matchup.
Tight Ends
In his return from retirement, Darren Waller has done nothing but score touchdowns and be injured. Both of which are fairly par for the course, per his career. He is currently the TE12 in fantasy points per game, but tied for TE4 in touchdowns, with six in seven games. Despite leaving one of those early and posting zero stats. If that game were removed, he would be the TE5 in fantasy points per game.
The Bengals simply do not believe in making an attempt at covering the position. They allow 91.1 receiving yards, the most in the league, and 1.1 touchdowns per game to the position. Both marks are the best in the league for opposing tight ends.
Waller is at a price point that should render him as chalk at the position, meaning he is better used in cash contests, but is still viable in GPP.
Brenton Strange enters the week with a TE4 and a TE7 finish under his belt. Over his last four games, he is averaging over 47 yards per game and has scored once. He has become a presence in the red zone with five targets in a high-value area of the field. There is trust and volume. Strange may not be seeing the overall volume that we covet in fantasy, but he sees the higher value targets.
The Vikings allow the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. That said, they have allowed six receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season.
Strange is a touchdown-dependent dart throw at the tight end position, but priced for his potential to exceed his salary. Consider him a risky high ceiling play at bargain bin pricing for GPP contests this week.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
