Dynasty managers love the rookie draft, but the real money is often made in the weeks before NFL free agency. This is the window where uncertainty is still priced in. Once the news hits, the market corrects instantly, and the easy arbitrage disappears.
In this FantasyPros Dynasty episode, Ryan Wormeli, Scott Bogman, and Pat Fitzmaurice zero in on a dozen players whose dynasty value could swing hard based on what happens over the next few weeks. Some are classic “buy before the hype.” Others are “sell while the story still sounds good.”
Dynasty Players to Buy or Sell Before NFL Free Agency
Let’s run through six dynasty buys and six sells, along with what kind of trade value actually makes sense right now in dynasty fantasy football leagues.
Players to Buy
Fitz called Willis the quintessential Superflex buy before free agency, and the logic is pretty clean. This quarterback class is viewed as thin at the top, and there are more QB-needy teams than there are credible starters available. Willis is about to hit the market, and the show’s stance was simple: he’s going to sign somewhere as a starter, and the price jump will be immediate.
The appeal is the cheat-code rushing. In his limited starting sample, Willis has produced meaningful rushing yardage and touchdowns, and Fitz noted that even “legs only” can get you close to QB2 value. The more interesting wrinkle from the transcript is that Willis also flashed as a passer in two late-season appearances with Green Bay, including a very efficient start the following week. Nobody’s claiming he’s suddenly Drew Brees, but “not a zero as a passer” paired with real rushing is how fantasy starters are born.
Dynasty move: In Superflex, this is the definition of “buy the uncertainty.” Once he signs, you’ll be paying starter pricing.
Bogman wants to buy Hall now because he thinks the dynasty community is a little tired of him. The Jets offense was a mess, the quarterback situation was brutal, and Hall still managed strong efficiency indicators like explosive run rate and missed tackles forced. The important part is what comes next. If Hall leaves, he’s likely to land in a better touchdown environment.
The show tossed out a bunch of logical fits, including Houston, Washington, Kansas City, Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Carolina. The recurring point was that most realistic landing spots feel like an upgrade over the Jets’ scoring profile.
Dynasty move: Hall is still 25. If your league mates are treating him like a “good but frustrating” RB2, you’re looking at a buy window that might not exist once the signing happens.
This is the “cheap bet on a depth chart opening.” Fitz’s case is based on cost and opportunity. If Hall walks, the Jets are not in a position to hand out a big RB deal during a roster rebuild. That sets up Allen (and Isaiah Davis) as the top in-house options, with the expectation the Jets add competition without spending premium assets.
Allen’s toolkit is the selling point: size, speed score, and age. Fitz emphasized how young he is relative to NFL experience. He also pointed out why this is a sensible rookie-pick pivot: in a weak RB class, a late second rounder might land you a less compelling prospect than Allen.
Dynasty move: This is exactly the type of throw-in you ask for when negotiating a larger deal. If you can get Allen for a late second or as an add-on, it’s the right kind of bet.
Bogman’s argument here is basically “buy the frustration discount.” Pearsall’s value has drifted down because his rookie season was chaotic and injury-impacted. But the 49ers’ receiver room could look very different in 2026. The transcript notes multiple moving parts: Brandon Aiyuk‘s status, George Kittle‘s ACL injury late in the year, and the possibility of Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne hitting free agency.
The big dynasty takeaway is role. Bogman emphasized Pearsall’s route involvement, and both hosts agreed he has a plausible path to being an “alpha” type target earner in Kyle Shanahan’s offense if the runway clears.
Price discussion mattered here too. Fitz framed Pearsall as a late first type of value in Superflex rookie picks. Bogman was more hesitant to move a future first because of how loaded the 2027 class projects, but he was comfortable talking early second or a late first if you’re confident it’s late.
Dynasty move: If you believe in Pearsall, this is the last reasonable chance to buy before the “he’s the WR1 in San Francisco” narrative becomes expensive.
Fitz’s buy thesis hinges on potential target consolidation. He believes it’s more likely than not that A.J. Brown is gone by Week 1 of 2026. Dallas Goedert is also nearing free agency and entering his 30s. If Philadelphia moves on from both, Smith could become the default target leader, even if the Eagles bring in reinforcements.
Smith is a classic “better real-life player than dynasty market price” guy. Fitz highlighted his efficiency, route running, and durability. In consensus, he’s grouped with other “second option” receivers like Jameson Williams, Jaylen Waddle, Jordan Addison, and Luther Burden. Bogman basically said Smith belongs in that tier, and the upside comes from what the Eagles do next.
Dynasty move: If managers are valuing Smith as just another WR2 in a crowded offense, you’re buying before the depth chart potentially simplifies.
This is the buy where the hosts sound almost personally offended by the market. Bogman pointed out Likely’s efficiency in games without Mark Andrews and the long list of teams that need tight end help. The core thesis is simple: Likely leaving Baltimore could finally give him a clear runway to 80 to 100 targets.
Wormly also made the important dynasty point: tight end is a tiered position. If Likely gets the right landing spot and target volume, it’s not crazy that he jumps into that second tier behind the true elites. Nobody is calling him Brock Bowers, but “top-12 tight end” was treated as a very reasonable outcome if the role is real.
Dynasty move: If your league values Likely like a fringe TE2, you buy. Tight ends who might become the first read in an offense don’t stay cheap.
Players to Sell
Fitz opened the sells with a player he expects to lose value once Denver adds to the backfield. The case isn’t “Harvey is terrible.” It’s that the rookie year was underwhelming in efficiency, and Sean Payton historically uses multiple backs. Even peak versions of Payton’s lead backs shared work.
If the Broncos re-sign J.K. Dobbins, sign another veteran, draft a back, or swing bigger, Harvey’s path to high-end volume narrows. Bogman agreed there’s real downside if Denver makes an aggressive addition.
Dynasty move: If someone in your league is valuing Harvey like a locked-in RB1 because he’s fresh in memory from a playoff run, that’s your exit.
This was Bogman’s spiciest sell, and it surprised even him. The reason is market timing. Walker just came off a monster postseason and a Super Bowl MVP. That’s peak narrative value.
Bogman’s concern is usage stability. Even if Walker re-signs in Seattle, there’s injury history, pass-protection limitations, and the potential for a frustrating split once Zach Charbonnet returns. The show also noted coaching uncertainty with staff movement, which matters when you’re projecting RB usage.
This isn’t a “dump him” recommendation. It’s a “be open to a first-plus offer” recommendation.
Dynasty move: In a rebuild or retool, you float Walker now. If someone pays the Super Bowl tax, you take it.
Fitz thinks Marks was miscast as a workhorse and is likely to see fewer touches in 2026. The Texans’ most logical roster move is to add an early-down runner. That could be via free agency or the draft. Either way, Marks profiles better as a third-down specialist, and specialists are fragile dynasty assets if they don’t have elite receiving volume.
Bogman agreed, and added the dynasty structural point: day-three backs can have useful rookie seasons and still get replaced quickly.
Dynasty move: Sell the “Texans starting RB” perception before the team makes the obvious addition.
Bogman’s timing argument is strong: Swift is coming off a great season, he’s 27, and he carries a contract structure that could make him a cap-savings candidate. More importantly, Chicago’s younger back, Kyle Monangai, flashed late, and there’s a plausible path where Swift shifts toward a more specialized role as he ages.
Even if you don’t think Swift gets cut, the sell idea is that this might be the best perception window you’ll get.
Dynasty move: If a contender views Swift as a bankable RB2 for the next two years, you can probably get more than his true long-term value.
Fitz’s sell case is about ceiling. Shakir has caught a lot of passes, but the production profile is low impact: modest yardage totals and almost no touchdowns. Now add in the likely offseason reality: Buffalo is going to add receiving firepower.
Shakir needs volume because he’s not a big-play or red-zone difference maker. If targets get squeezed, his fantasy usefulness gets squeezed.
Dynasty move: This is a “good player, capped fantasy asset” sell. You move him before Buffalo adds target competition.
This was the one point of real disagreement. Bogman wants to sell Watson because he’s frustrating to roster, injury-prone, and volatile week-to-week in PPR. Fitz countered that Watson looked like a star and that his consensus ranking already bakes in the injury frustration. He also highlighted that Watson produced spike weeks even in limited games.
So what’s the practical dynasty move?
If your league is pricing Watson like a stable weekly WR2, you sell, because he’s not that. If your league is pricing him like a risky WR3 with elite weekly upside, you probably hold, because that’s already the discount.
Dynasty move: This is league-market dependent. The sell only works if someone is paying for the ceiling without charging you for the missed games.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Takeaways
- Malik Willis is a classic Superflex pre-signing buy. Starter news will spike the price fast.
- Breece Hall is still in his prime, and most realistic landing spots boost TD equity.
- Braelon Allen is a cheap depth-chart bet if Hall leaves and the Jets avoid major RB investment.
- Ricky Pearsall is a buy if you think the 49ers’ target tree thins out in 2026.
- DeVonta Smith has a real path to target leadership if A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert move on.
- Isaiah Likely is undervalued if he lands somewhere with true TE1 volume.
- Sell windows are about timing, not hate: Kenneth Walker and D’Andre Swift are “sell if the league pays peak price.”
- Khalil Shakir is a sell because Buffalo adding WR help likely caps his already-limited ceiling.
- Christian Watson is only a sell if your league is paying for stability he doesn’t provide.
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