It’s hard to believe that we already have a season of baseball to review. Hopefully, your DFS bankroll keeps growing. Today’s featured DraftKings slate begins at 7:05 Eastern Time and includes seven games. FanDuel has a slate that includes the same seven games.
Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (4/25)
- Jacob Misiorowski has a 37.8% strikeout rate that trails only Dylan Cease among qualified pitchers. He has struck out at least seven batters in four of his five starts. In the one game that he didn’t strike out seven batters, we learned that he was ill. That strikeout base sets him up with a safe floor to go along with a lot of upside.
- The prices just keep dropping for Cole Ragans. If you believe in patterns, he is currently alternating strong starts with poor starts. If that continues, that would mean this is a strong start. Even with his struggles, he is still getting whiffs at a 26% rate.
- Walbert Urena stepped into a starting role for the first time as a Major Leaguer last week. It went well as he struck out eight batters in six innings of work against the San Diego Padres. It’s a small sample size, but he is currently getting groundballs at a 62% rate.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Chicago Cubs Projected Lineup (4/25)
It’s hard to believe that we already have a season of baseball to review. Hopefully, your DFS bankroll keeps growing. Today’s featured DraftKings slate begins at 7:05 Eastern Time and includes seven games. FanDuel has a slate that includes the same seven games.
Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (4/25)
- Jacob Misiorowski has a 37.8% strikeout rate that trails only Dylan Cease among qualified pitchers. He has struck out at least seven batters in four of his five starts. In the one game that he didn’t strike out seven batters, we learned that he was ill. That strikeout base sets him up with a safe floor to go along with a lot of upside.
- The prices just keep dropping for Cole Ragans. If you believe in patterns, he is currently alternating strong starts with poor starts. If that continues, that would mean this is a strong start. Even with his struggles, he is still getting whiffs at a 26% rate.
- Walbert Urena stepped into a starting role for the first time as a Major Leaguer last week. It went well as he struck out eight batters in six innings of work against the San Diego Padres. It’s a small sample size, but he is currently getting groundballs at a 62% rate.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Chicago Cubs Projected Lineup (4/25)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| 2B/SS (FD) |
Nico Hoerner |
$5,300 |
$3,600 |
| 1B |
Michael Busch |
$3,700 |
$2,800 |
| 3B |
Alex Bregman |
$4,000 |
$2,800 |
| OF |
Ian Happ |
$3,900 |
$3,400 |
| OF |
Seiya Suzuki |
$4,100 |
$3,200 |
| C |
Moises Ballesteros |
$3,600 |
$2,800 |
| C |
Carson Kelly |
$3,200 |
$2,900 |
| OF |
Pete Crow-Armstrong |
$5,100 |
$2,800 |
| SS |
Dansby Swanson |
$3,500 |
$3,500 |
- It’s a battle of the top two offenses in baseball per wRC+ when the Dodgers host the Cubs. Both offenses can be targeted, but we’ll focus on the Cubs for this article. Roki Sasaki is starting for the Dodgers against the Cubs. He has an ERA of 6.11 and a FIP of 6.37.
- After a bit of a slow start, Seiya Suzuki’s bat is catching fire. Yesterday stopped a streak of three straight multihit games, including a home run in each game. His hard-hit rate is a bit down to start the season, but that will catch back up shortly.
- Alex Bregman has the highest hard-hit rate of his career at 45%. He also has the highest average exit velocity of his career at 90.6 miles per hour. So far, it has only led to three home runs, but also three doubles and a triple. One of those home runs came yesterday. Today, could be another home run.
- There aren’t many cheap options in the Cubs lineup to recommend, given their team’s depth. Moises Ballasteros’ bat looks to be the real deal. In only 55 at-bats, he already has eight extra-base hits, including three home runs. His Statcast data fully supports that level of power with a 55% hard-hit rate and a 12.5% barrel rate.
Atlanta Braves Projected Lineup (4/25)
| POS |
PLAYER |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
| OF |
Ronald Acuna Jr. |
$5,4oo |
$3,100 |
| C |
Drake Baldwin |
$4,900 |
$3,800 |
| 1B |
Matt Olson |
$4,600 |
$3,800 |
| 3B |
Austin Riley |
$4,100 |
$3,000 |
| 2B |
Ozzie Albies |
$3,900 |
$3,200 |
| OF |
Michael Harris Jr. |
$3,400 |
$3,000 |
| 1B/OF |
Dominic Smith |
$3,500 |
$3,200 |
| OF/SS/
2B/3B (FD) |
Mauricio Dubon |
$3,300 |
$3,000 |
| OF |
Mike Yastrzemski |
$3,000 |
$2,600 |
- The Atlanta Braves’ matchup today is against a returning Zack Wheeler. I never want to bet against someone of Wheeler’s caliber, but he is returning from shoulder surgery. He has allowed 13 earned runs in 20 innings over five minor league rehab starts between Double-A and Triple-A.
- It’s hard not to recommend Drake Baldwin every day when writing a DFS article. He already has 14 barrels on the season, which has boosted his expected slugging to .576. That’s even better than his actual slugging of .527, which is strong in its own right.
- Michael Harris has typically gotten off to slow starts, but not this season. He already has ten extra-base hits, including six home runs. A 57% hard hit rate and nearly 95 mile per hour average exit velocity are far superior to anything he has done earlier in his career. Make sure that he is in the lineup today, as he only appeared as a pinch hitter yesterday.
- Dominic Smith’s price just keeps rising, but it makes sense with his current profile. He has a .991 OPS early in the season. The Statcast profile that his expected batting average is .359 and his expected slugging is .601. Those marks are essentially exactly what he is doing right now.
Core Studs
- The Dodgers were mentioned above as a possible stack option, but there is one player who should be in your lineup. Will Smith has gone 4-for-7 against Colin Rea in his career with a pair of extra-base hits, including a home run.
- In most DFS contests, you want to avoid the same-sided matchup for a hitter. In the case of Yordan Alvarez, it just doesn’t seem to matter. He has a 1.439 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, like today’s opponent, Ryan Weathers. 61% of the balls against Weathers have been hit in the air.
- All eight of Carter Jensen’s extra-base hits have come against right-handed pitchers, such as he faces today. Over the last week, he has posted an OPS of 1.552.
Value Plays/Punts
- Brandon Marsh is not platooning this season, but perhaps he should be. Against right-handed pitchers, he has an OPS of .946. Against left-handed pitchers, that OPS falls to .399. Today’s matchup is against right-handed pitcher Bryce Elder.
- The surface statistics for Jac Caglianone show one home run and two RBI. That’s why his price has fallen so sharply. If we look under the hood a bit, we see top 10 percentile marks in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate. Take advantage of his perceived struggles.
- Spencer Steer’s profile is looking a bit different this season. His strikeout rate has spiked to nearly 30%, but that comes with a spike in his barrel rate to nearly 19%. He has one hit against Jack Flaherty in four career at-bats. That hit was a home run.
Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
It’s surprising to see Moises Ballesteros’ line set so low. He has gone over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in his last five games. Going further back, he has gone over this mark in 11 of his last 12 games. As mentioned above, the Cubs have a matchup with Roki Sasaki.
Junior Caminero is on a hot streak that can’t be ignored. Yesterday, he hit two home runs. He has gone over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in his last three games and eight of his last nine games. Today, the Rays take on the Minnesota Twins and starting pitcher Bailey Ober.
Typically, the home run props are something that I avoid, but the payout on Munetaka Murakami, combined with his streak, has me intrigued. Murakami has hit home runs in six of his last seven games. His matchup is against Jake Irvin, who has 65% of the balls hit against him going into the air.
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