Every year, there are players we will not draft in fantasy football. Some burned us the year before, while others could have simply failed to live up to lofty expectations.
In last year’s version of this article, I nailed plenty of landmines like Chuba Hubbard, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman, Jayden Reed, Cedric Tillman, and others. This year’s approach is not only to avoid players whose analytical profiles scream “stay away,” but also to circumvent other players at their average draft position (ADP) cost, as it is unlikely they will pay it off.
Without further ado, here are my players to avoid in fantasy football for 2025.
Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
I want to be very clear at the beginning of this Lamar Jackson discussion. I don’t hate the player. I hate his ADP. Jackson is the CLEAR QB2 across the board in best ball, etc. At that price point, I’m out. Yes, since 2019, Jackson has had two QB1 overall finishes in fantasy points per game, but during that stretch, Jackson has also been the QB6 or lower in fantasy points per game four times. As the QB2 off the board, the consensus is that he has a good shot to be the QB1 overall again, but I think there’s more risk to that, given his history of not paying off at this cost. That’s not even baking into his cost, his injury risk, or last year’s level of play. Since 2021, Jackson has played 13 or fewer games three times. Last year, he dealt with a hamstring issue and a back injury, and his play tanked. In Weeks 9-18, he was the QB20 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 33rd in highly accurate throw rate, 26th in catchable target rate, and 31st in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Jackson is also coming off a career-worst 26.8 rushing yards per game with the second-lowest yards per carry of his career. Can we chalk a lot of that up to his injuries last year? Yes, possibly, but even if he bounces back in this department, the question is how much. Jackson is a strong QB1 again this season, but as the second quarterback off the board in drafts, I can’t take the swing on him this season.
Last year, Matthew Stafford had a monster season as the QB4 in fantasy points per game, finishing with the most passing touchdowns and the third-highest passing yardage total of his career in a single season. Stafford can be very good this season, and I think it’s a tough bet to expect him to repeat those numbers in 2026. His 7.7% passing touchdown rate last year was absolute insanity. Since 2008, there have been only 12 seasons in which a passer has finished with a 7.5% or higher passing touchdown rate, and that’s including Stafford’s 2025 performance (minimum 250 passing attempts). At this point in Stafford’s career, we aren’t counting on any rushing production, so to repeat as a QB1 again in 2026, he’ll have to get it done exclusively through the air. He and his aging/injury-prone receiving room have to stay healthy in 2026 to even hope to come close to last year’s magical season. If Davante Adams and/or Puka Nacua miss any time, then Stafford’s production will take a hit with the top-heavy and thin nature of their receiving depth chart. Drafting Stafford this season feels like exclusively chasing last year’s production in the hopes that it repeats, and that’s not a bet I want to make.
As good as Sam Darnold was from a real-life quarterbacking perspective last year, he wasn’t great in fantasy, and I don’t see that changing this season if their defense remains elite. Last season, Darnold was the QB22 in fantasy points per game as Seattle led the NFL in plays while leading by seven or more points. When Seattle was 27th in passing rate when leading by seven or more points, they were 32nd in passing rate when trailing by a touchdown or more, and they finished 25th in neutral passing rate. In every conceivable situation, this team didn’t want to throw the ball, and I don’t see that changing in 2026. Darnold had only seven weekly finishes as a QB1 in fantasy while finishing as the QB24 or lower in weekly scoring eight times. Darnold can continue to be awesome in real-life football and an avoid for fantasy purposes because of their offensive game plan and their strong defense.
Bucky Irving has dealt with a number of injuries in his short career with a foot sprain and a shoulder/ AC joint sprain last year. Rewinding to 2024, he also dealt with hip, back, toe, and hamstring issues. When he was on the field last year, he averaged 20.3 touches and 86.5 total yards as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. His efficiency suffered massively from last year’s injuries, after being a wondrous per-touch monster in 2024. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, he was 43rd in explosive run rate, 35th in missed tackle rate, and 46th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Those dips are explainable, but they are still concerning for a back that is on the smaller side and has been banged up quite often over the last two seasons. Yes, Rachaad White is gone, but Irving will still have to contend with Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker this season on early downs and in the passing game. Irving could be a massive disappointment that loses work to Gainwell and Tucker all year.
Travis Etienne excelled last year as the Jags RB1 with an RB13 finish in fantasy points per game. Etienne was disappointing on a per-touch basis, ranking 37th in explosive run rate, 31st in missed tackle rate, and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Those metrics are worrisome, as is Alvin Kamara still remaining on the New Orleans roster. Early in the offseason, I liked Etienne as a volume bet at running back in an ascending Saints offense, but I worry that Kamara will cut into his volume. Kamara is easily the best receiver of the two, despite not being at the height of his powers anymore. If Kamara can heavily cut into Etienne’s receiving work and red zone usage, he could disappoint this season.
Chuba Hubbard followed up his big breakout 2024 season with a stinker in 2025. Last year, Chuba Hubbard fell apart as the RB40 in fantasy points per game. Yes, he dealt with a calf injury for part of the season, but he also lost his starting job during the season to Rico Dowdle. Hubbard was arguably the most inefficient running back in the NFL last year. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked dead last in missed tackle rate and explosive run rate (zero explosive runs) while also sitting at 47th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If Jonathon Brooks is fully healthy (I think he will be), he could easily be the backfield leader coming out of camp. I’ll be avoiding Hubbard in drafts this year.
Aaron Jones returns to Minnesota this season, another year older and with more injuries and missed games on his resume. Last year, he missed five games while dealing with hamstring, shoulder, and hip injuries. When he was active, he averaged 13.3 touches and 62.3 total yards as the RB31 in fantasy points per game. Entering his age-32 season, I don’t think Jones can be expected to play a full 17 games as a workhorse back. He will likely split work with Jordan Mason this season, picking up most of the passing game usage. On early downs, his best days are behind him, as he was 32nd in explosive run rate, 43rd in missed tackle rate, and 49th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). In the receiving game, he is still above average, ranking 26th in yards per route run and 24th in first downs per route run. Jones is a worrisome player to invest in this season. I don’t see him burning me in 2026 if I full fade him in drafts.
My avoidance of Tetairoa McMillan in drafts this season isn’t related to McMillan’s talent at all. It’s a bet against a low-volume passing offense and Bryce Young. This offseason, Carolina added Chris Brazzell to the wide receiver room, and they should have a healthy Jalen Coker all season. Last year, Coker wasn’t a full-time player until Week 8 as he was returning from an injury during the early portion of the season. All of these factors could equal a smaller piece of an already child-sized pie for McMillan to feast on. Bryce Young wasn’t allowed to sling it around the yard last season, and I don’t see that changing in 2026 as Carolina will again lean on their ground game and defense to grind out wins. Last year, in Weeks 3-18, Bryce Young surpassed 35 passing attempts only once; he had more than 225 passing yards only twice, and in eight of those 14 games, he had 25 or fewer passing attempts. During the same stretch, Carolina was fifth in neutral rushing rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With more weapons to get the ball to in Carolina in 2026 and a volume-limited passer, McMillan will struggle to pay off his draft cost.
If Sam LaPorta is healthy this season, Jameson Williams will struggle to meet the expectations of being a weekly WR2 for fantasy football lineups. Last year, with LaPorta active (Weeks 1-10), Williams was the WR37 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he had only a 15.6% target share with 52.7 receiving yards per game, a 16.4% first-read share, a 14.4 aDOT, and three red zone targets (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams was the team’s deep threat, and that’s the role I expect him to play in 2026. His usage wasn’t strong enough overall or in the red zone to even out the week-to-week volatility of his role in the Detroit offense. If LaPorta is back to his usual self this season, Williams will be a nightmare for redraft managers as they deal with the weekly conundrum of whether to start him or not.
Khalil Shakir has proven over the last two seasons to be a solid but not spectacular player for fantasy, as the WR39 and WR33 in fantasy points per game. With only 22 red zone targets and eight receiving touchdowns combined during that span, Shakir hasn’t had the high-leverage usage in the Buffalo offense to offer anything more than PPR flex value. With the arrival of D.J. Moore this offseason, Shakir will clearly be pushed down at least one spot in the target pecking order. If Dalton Kincaid‘s role grows at all or Keon Coleman takes a step in 2026, Shakir could tumble even further down the hierarchy. I won’t be drafting Shakir on any teams this season.
I don’t see the upside with D.K. Metcalf this season. I faded him last year, and that worked out well, so we’re back on the “Fade D.K.” train again for 2026. Last year, Metcalf was the WR21 in fantasy points per game, but his deeper analytics and weekly scoring finishes paint a less rosy picture. Last year, in his 15 games played, he finished outside the top 36 wide receivers in weekly scoring seven times. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 25th in yards per route run, 26th in red zone targets, and 37th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). In a league where 16 teams utilized two high on at least 50.1% of their defensive snaps, Metcalf’s splits against single and two high are also worrisome. Among 109 qualifying receivers, Metcalf was 41st in yards per route run against two high (19th vs. single high). This massive split against the two coverages isn’t new for Metcalf. It has been a stain on his analytical profile for the past few seasons. I’ll happily draft other players around Metcalf’s ADP all summer rather than selecting the Pittsburgh pseudo-alpha.
At this point in his career, we know what to expect out of Travis Kelce. He’s a low-end fantasy football TE1, and that’s fine, but I don’t see a path for him returning to top 3-5 status for 2026. Over the last two years, he has been the TE9 and TE7 in fantasy points per game. Yes, the Chiefs will remain a pass-first offense, but it’s fair to question when we’ll see Patrick Mahomes play in 2026 and what version of him will be under center. Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL, and that cast of pass-catching characters at his disposal didn’t change a ton this offseason, which isn’t great. Travis Kelce’s per-route efficiency screams that he’s on the back nine of his career. Last year, among 59 qualifying tight ends, Kelce was 19th in yards per route run, 18th in yards after the catch per reception, and 16th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those aren’t damning numbers, but they aren’t anything more than solid and just illuminate the point again that Kelce doesn’t have the juice to put up elite per-route metrics anymore to vault him back into the top 3-5 conversation. Kelce will likely post another solid season, but I’m more interested in taking upside swings at the tight end position before and after him in drafts in 2026 or to just stream the position.
I’ll be avoiding Oronde Gadsden in drafts this season. Yes, in Weeks 6-18 last year, he had his moments with five TE1 finishes in weekly scoring, but he was also only the TE17 in fantasy points per game. During that sample of games, among 50 qualifying tight ends, he was 36th in target per route run rate, 15th in yards per route run, 22nd in first-read share, and 29th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). After Week 15, he failed to surpass a 70% route share in any game. All of these are concerning red flags before we even get to the Bolts’ additions of Charlie Kolar and David Njoku this offseason. Gadsden looks like he’s locked in a tight end committee for 2026, which is something I don’t have any interest in dealing with for fantasy purposes.
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