It isn’t much of a revelation to say that our current society is obsessed with what is new. Even in fantasy football. Newer must mean better and improved, right? This year’s version of Madden will undoubtedly be the best one ever made.
Forever, we look to the horizon to see what is coming down the pipeline, assuming that anything that is the latest and trending must be the best. Yet, it isn’t always the case.
The same rings true for rookies in fantasy football.
Don’t get me wrong — it is incredibly exciting to have a new batch of talent come into the league. As fans of the NFL, we look forward to the draft as one of the most celebrated events of the year. Young men fresh out of college have the hopes and dreams of making an immediate impact on the league.
As analysts, incoming rookies provide us with plenty of material to cover. How do we think that these players will fit with their new teams? What sort of statistics can we project for them out of the gate? Will they be able to ascend depth charts in time for Week 1 and secure a starting role?
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Fantasy Football Rookies to Avoid
The coverage tends to be nonstop. And it happens, year after year. We are all guilty of it. That steady drumbeat creates hype. It creates clicks. And, lo and behold, that has a trickle-down effect as we enter draft season.
Rookies tend to be overvalued.
There, I said it. The ugly truth of the matter. Rookies tend to fall short of expectations each season, yet we continue to draft them as sure-things, because they just so happen to be new.
This year’s class is no different, and a quick look at the average draft position (ADP) data confirms what I expected — we continue to shoot for the moon in the hopes of saying, “I drafted XYZ player his rookie season. I knew he was going to be a star.”
Don’t get me wrong, it’s a nice feeling getting to say that, but hold your horses on drafting rookies too high, placing lofty expectations on touches early in the season and drafting rookies ahead of proven veterans.
Below are a few rookies that I am wary of, given their current ADP. This isn’t a knock on their talent or a condemnation of other analysts’ rankings, more of an attempt to slow down the hype train before it completely derails.
Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI)
I’ll preface by stating that I’m a Notre Dame alum. I watched every game Jeremiyah Love played in college. Make no mistake, he’s an elite running back.
Love has a unique blend of size, speed and vision that is incredibly rare at the position. He has the power to break away after contact with defenders or can leap over them in the open field. Love has incredible hands, is an adept receiver that quarterbacks can utilize and is a nightmare to tackle on screen passes. He’s an offensive weapon.
Why am I including him here if he’s so talented?
He was drafted by Arizona. Plain and simple.
This selection made me almost throw my remote through the television when it happened. Not that it was unexpected — Arizona was rumored to be interested in drafting Love. The fit is just terrible.
Love joins an incredibly crowded backfield with the Cardinals, with James Conner, Tyler Allgeier, Trey Benson and Bam Knight on the depth chart.
Conner had a lost 2025 season because of an ankle injury, but I doubt that Arizona will develop amnesia and forget that he rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the two prior seasons, finishing as the fantasy RB11 in 2024 and RB18 in 2023.
During that stretch, Conner averaged nearly 4.7 yards per carry (YPC) and was used as an outlet in the receiving game. Conner signed a reworked contract in March to avoid being a cap casualty, and I doubt Arizona will find a trade partner for his services prior to Week 1.
Allgeier inked a multi-year deal with the team during the offseason for $12.25 million. At the time, he appeared to be in line to inherit the early-down and goal-line work for the Cardinals. He remains the best “thumper” option and the most adept at running between the tackles, thanks to his stout frame. Allgeier isn’t going anywhere either, and will further cut into Love’s total touches.
Even operating under the assumption that Arizona releases or cuts Benson and Knight, that still leaves Love with an uphill battle to climb, and a limited number of potential carries. Even analysts with the most rose-colored glasses that project Love to instantly be the Cardinals’ feature back have to admit this is a committee situation, at best.
Further complicating matters is the question of who will start at quarterback for the team. Journeyman Jacoby Brissett had the best season of his career in 2025, but he has been holding out for a long-term deal with the team.
Following the departure of Kyler Murray to Minnesota, Arizona selected Carson Beck from Miami in the third round. Will he potentially see some starts down the line if Arizona struggles as expected? And what sort of impact will that have on Love’s season?
Surely Love will be involved heavily in the passing game, right? I’d counter with at the expense of who? Trey McBride is the best tight end in the NFL, and he will continue to command a large target share in this offense.
Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t lived up to expectations, but the Cardinals would be foolish to give up on him so early in his career. Michael Wilson proved he was capable of an expanded role and was outstanding when given the opportunity. Who amongst these three options will lose targets to Love?
Did I also happen to mention that Love is currently ranked as the RB13, ahead of players like Kyren Williams, Breece Hall and Josh Jacobs?
All three veteran alternatives have proven they have what it takes to be elite NFL players. Williams and Jacobs have a much better quarterback situation, and Hall doesn’t have nearly the same level of competition for touches. Food for thought.
Carnell Tate (WR – TEN)
I know what you’re thinking already. Seriously, Evan? Are both top dynasty options listed here? Yep.
Similar to Jeremiyah Love, Tate is an exceptionally talented player. At 6-foot-2, 192 pounds, he has the frame to line up all over the field, and he excels against man coverage. Tate is an extremely polished route runner with reliable hands and has the strength to win contested catches when necessary.
Tennessee needed a true alpha option after Calvin Ridley‘s disappointing 2025 campaign, which was riddled with injuries and inconsistency.
Sure, the team added Wan’Dale Robinson in free agency on the heels of his breakout 92/1,014/4 split with the New York Giants, but he is a pure slot receiver. Tate was drafted to be the first read on passing plays in this offense led by Brian Daboll, and by all accounts, he should be.
So, why the pause?
Anyone banking on Tate finishing as the WR30 (his current ADP) is hanging their hat on Cam Ward continuing to make dramatic strides in the right direction and on improved play from the Titans’ offensive line, which surrendered a league-high 55 sacks last season.
Affording Ward time to throw the ball and allowing plays to actually develop will be crucial for Tate’s success. Otherwise, Ward will just pepper Robinson with targets as the short-yardage option.
Managers should keep in mind that Ward averaged a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt (YPA) last season while constantly scrambling for his life.
Even though he threw passes close to the line of scrimmage, Ward completed fewer than 60% of his pass attempts and didn’t have a game with more than one touchdown pass until Week 14. I’ll have to see it to believe it when it comes to Ward’s projected meteoric leap forward.
At WR30, Tate is being drafted ahead of DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton and Alec Pierce. I’m leery of him finishing higher than any of those options.
KC Concepcion (WR – CLE)
Selected with the 24th overall pick in this year’s draft, Cleveland added the speedy KC Concepcion out of Texas A&M. The fit appeared to be intriguing at first glance, with the Browns’ receiver room filled with unproven talent outside of Jerry Jeudy.
Compared by many pundits to Zay Flowers due to his yards after the catch (YAC) ability, acceleration and short-area quickness, Concepcion appeared to be headed towards fantasy relevance.
Puzzlingly, Cleveland immediately followed his selection by adding Denzel Boston from Washington with the seventh pick in the second round. Boston offers a very different skill set as a big-bodied jump-ball specialist with a gigantic catch radius. He doesn’t possess the same speed as Concepcion, but when the ball heads his way, he catches it with authority.
Concepcion will compete with Boston, Isaiah Bond, Cedric Tillman, Jeudy and last year’s tight end standout, Harold Fannin Jr., for targets in an offense that doesn’t want to throw the ball if it can be helped under new head coach Todd Monken. His philosophy is more ground-and-pound, in a division that thrives on defense and low-scoring contests.
Keep in mind, I haven’t even discussed quarterback Deshaun Watson yet. Yes, the same Watson who has been plagued by injuries since joining the Browns back in 2022. The same Watson who averaged a putrid 6.1 YPA over his last three seasons. Not exactly the depth of target that Concepcion-backers were hoping for.
There is a decent chance that Watson is replaced by Shedeur Sanders at some point this season, either due to inefficiency or injury. And Sanders isn’t exactly the next Matthew Stafford.
Concepcion’s ADP sits at WR53, ahead of players like Jalen Coker, Matthew Golden and Rashid Shaheed. If I’m shooting for upside and best-case scenarios, he falls behind all of those veterans.
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