Talent assessment is central to fantasy football. Which players are good, less good, or bad? We study it. We debate it. Talent assessment is the crux of the annual preparation for our drafts.
Assessing the talent of quarterbacks is relatively easy. The number of passes attempted by a starting quarterback over the course of a season far outnumbers the number of rushing attempts by any running back or the number of targets drawn by any wide receiver or tight end. We get big sample sizes at quarterback.
It’s also fairly obvious who’s good, less good, or bad.
Josh Allen is the Bills’ lead actor each week. He often has terrific games and rarely has bad ones.
The Panthers’ Bryce Young has never lived up to expectations as the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, and nothing about his 2025 performance suggested that a breakthrough is imminent.
With talent assessment a relatively easy task at quarterback, it should be easy to pick the good ones and avoid the bad ones, right?
Well, yes. But it’s structural drafting, not talent assessment, that typically determines the price point at which we acquire a quarterback.
By “structural drafting,” I mean the way in which we choose to allot our draft picks. Every pick has an opportunity cost. Picking a player at one position means bypassing players at other positions.
Structural drafting is about trying to get the most bang for our buck.
And generally, you can get the most bang for your buck by cutting corners at quarterback.
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy, Targets & Avoids: Quarterbacks
Why Spend Down at QB
Let’s start by dispelling the notion that we should spend up at quarterback in 1QB leagues because quarterbacks score more points than players at other positions.
It’s not the point total that matters. It’s the point totals of the top quarterbacks relative to those of second- and third-tier quarterbacks.
In 2025 fantasy drafts, the first quarterback was taken 23rd overall, according to FantasyPros ADP. The 12th quarterback drafted had an average draft position of 102nd overall. Last year’s QB1 in fantasy points per game (eight games minimum) averaged 22.0 FPPG. Last year’s QB12 in fantasy points per game averaged 18.0 FPPG – a 4.0-point gap.
Our ADP data from 2025 says the first running back chosen immediately after the QB1 was RB12 in draft position. The first running back chosen immediately after the QB12 was RB37 in draft position. Last year’s RB12 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR, eight games minimum) averaged 14.1 FPPG. Last year’s RB37 averaged 8.0 FPPG – a 6.1-point gap.
This isn’t to say that it’s always best to spend down at quarterback. There are years when the value gap between the upper-class QBs and the middle-class QBs is substantial.
But 2026 doesn’t appear to be one of those years.
Some of the upper-class QBs have lost a bit of luster. Lamar Jackson is coming off a substandard, injury-marred year. Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels both missed more than half of their teams’ games last season. Drake Maye took advantage of a weak 2025 schedule by feasting on bad opponents, then struggled against good defenses in the playoffs. Even consensus QB1 Josh Allen hit six-year lows in passing yardage and TD passes last year.
Quarterbacks who put up impressive fantasy numbers for all or part of the 2025 season – Trevor Lawrence, Jaxson Dart, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford – can be had in the late seventh round or beyond.
The Right Time to Spend Up
There is a caveat to the cost-conscious approach to the QB position: In leagues where nearly everyone spends down at the position, spending up might make sense.
This is a phenomenon often seen in leagues full of fantasy analysts. Most of them believe spending down at quarterback is the right thing to do. But that sometimes creates bargains.
Jayden Daniels might be a fourth-round pick in a lot of home leagues. In a league full of fantasy analysts, Daniels might last until the seventh round and could be a value because of the lower opportunity cost.
This is a generalization, but as someone who plays in leagues against all levels of competitors, I’ve found it to be true:
The sharper the competition, the later quarterbacks generally go in drafts, and the greater the benefit to being among the first to draft one.
Sometimes it makes sense to zag when everyone else is zigging.
The Importance of QB Rushing
Most fantasy managers understand how valuable it can be to have a quarterback who posts significant rushing stats.
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts have been the elite QBs in recent years, largely because they’ve produced gaudy rushing numbers. Allen and Hurts have both scored double-digit rushing touchdowns in three of the last four years. Jackson is the all-time leader in QB rushing yardage and hasn’t turned 30 yet.
The importance of QB rushing value is magnified in years where passing numbers are down, and they were way down last year.
Passing yardage hit a 20-year low in 2025. Teams averaged 209.7 passing yards and 1.5 TD passes per game, according to Pro Football Reference. Those were the most anemic per-game passing numbers since 2006, when teams averaged 204.8 passing yards and 1.3 TD passes per game.
Passing numbers aren’t likely to increase this year, now that the NFL seems to be entering the Tight End Era.
The usage of 12 personnel, with two tight ends on the field, has risen for four consecutive years, reaching 22% last year.
The Rams, who have one of the best offenses in the league, used 13 personnel, with three tight ends on the field, on 30.5% of their offensive snaps last season.
This year’s NFL Draft was a TE-palooza, with 17 tight ends drafted in the first five rounds.
More tight ends on the field generally means more running and less throwing. Less throwing means rushing will account for a greater percentage of total QB production.
Now more than ever, it’s good to have a fantasy quarterback who runs effectively.
To accommodate various philosophies on when to draft a quarterback, I’m going to list quarterbacks to target and avoid at three price levels and explain why I’m in or out on each.
High-End Quarterbacks
Target: Lamar Jackson (BAL)
A year ago, Jackson had an ADP in the top 25. As of this writing, his ADP was outside the top 40.
Jackson missed four games with hamstring and back injuries last season. He also dealt with knee, ankle, and toe issues and clearly wasn’t 100% in some of the games he played.
After averaging 245.4 passing yards per game in 2024, he averaged just 196.1 passing yards per game last season. The bigger crash was in his rushing production. Jackson averaged 63.0 rushing yards per game over his first six full seasons as a starter. Last year, he averaged 26.8 rushing yards per game.
Jackson was QB1 in 2024. A season of better health should put him back among the elite scorers at the position, and buyers are getting a discount.
Avoid: Joe Burrow (CIN)
Burrow is one of the best pure passers in the game, if not the best. But Burrow has missed significant time with injuries in two of the last three years, and he adds very little value as a runner.
In 2024, Burrow played 17 games and led the league in pass attempts, completions, passing yardage, and TD passes. He tied for QB3 in fantasy scoring that year.
Because his contributions as a runner are so minimal, a lot needs to go right for Burrow to return value on his ADP.
Admire Burrow for his passing ability, but choose someone else as your fantasy quarterback.
Mid-Level Quarterbacks
Target: Justin Herbert (LAC)
In 2025, Herbert played behind a patchwork offensive line that allowed him to be sacked 54 times, and yet he still managed a fantasy finish of QB10.
The Chargers’ O-line should be healthier and better this year, and new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel should help make the most of Herbert’s prodigious talents. (It’s worth remembering that Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yardage in 2023 while playing for McDaniel in Miami.)
Herbert averaged 287.5 passing yards and 1.9 TD passes per game over his first three NFL seasons. Perhaps he could approach that level of production in 2026.
And Herbert adds rushing value. He ran for a career-high 498 yards last season.
Target: Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
It took Lawrence time last season to digest the new system installed by first-year Jaguars head coach Liam Coen. But once T-Law got it down, he went nuclear.
Over his first 10 games of 2025, Lawrence averaged 215 passing yards, 1.1 TD passes and 16.6 fantasy points per game. He averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt over that span, and his passer rating was 79.4.
Over his last seven regular-season games, Lawrence averaged 265 passing yards, 2.6 TD passes and 26.6 fantasy points per game. He averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt over those seven games, and his passer rating was 108.6.
Lawrence also had a hugely productive season as a runner, with 359 rushing yards and nine TD runs.
With WRs Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, and part-time contributor Travis Hunter, plus TE Brenton Strange, Lawrence has ample weaponry.
Lawrence is my favorite QB target this year.
Avoid: Jaxson Dart (NYG)
Dart provided ample value with his legs as a rookie, rushing for 487 yards and nine touchdowns.
But Dart’s devil-may-care style invited physical punishment. He had a sack rate of 9.4% and took some wicked hits as a runner, including one against the Bears that gave him a concussion and knocked him out for two games.
There’s optimism that the presence of Malik Nabers, who sustained a season-ending knee injury last season, could help Dart improve on his averages of 189.3 passing yards and 1.3 TD passes per start. But Nabers has reportedly been slow to recover from the injury.
There are also concerns that new Giants offensive coordinator Matt Nagy isn’t the sort of playcaller who can coax the best from Dart.
Dart’s rushing ability gives him tempting upside. But he has a top-10 ADP at quarterback and comes with more risk than some of the other quarterbacks in his ADP neighborhood.
Avoid: Patrick Mahomes (KC)
There’s no denying how good a real-life quarterback Patrick Mahomes is. He’s already punched his ticket to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Recent trends are not encouraging, however.
After averaging 303.0 passing yards, 2.4 TD passes, and 23.8 fantasy points per game over his first six NFL seasons, Mahomes has averaged 254.3 passing yards, 1.6 TD passes, and 19.2 fantasy points per game over his last three seasons.
Mahomes averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game in 2025, but his fantasy production was boosted by an atypically good season as a runner. Mahomes averaged a career-high 30.1 rushing yards per game and had a career-high five rushing touchdowns.
But Mahomes tore his left ACL and LCL last December. Even if he doesn’t miss any time – he’s reportedly on pace for a Week 1 return – it’s a good bet that Mahomes’ rushing numbers will be down from last year, and probably way down.
The pass-catching talent Mahomes has at his disposal appears to be average at best, and his offensive line isn’t especially good.
Name-brand value will ensure that Mahomes doesn’t fall into the bargain zone in drafts, and he’s likely to be overpriced.
QB2 Range
Target: Kyler Murray (MIN)
The Vikings might say that Murray is competing with JJ McCarthy for the starting QB job, but Murray is the overwhelming favorite to win the gig.
Murray’s yearly finishes in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks with at least five starts: QB11, QB4, QB4, QB7, QB9, QB12, QB20.
Murray’s current ADP: QB17.
The former No. 1 draft pick landed in a good spot with the Vikings. Head coach Kevin O’Connell is a highly regarded playcaller, and Murray will have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings as his wide receivers.
Murray is a prolific runner who’s averaged at least 30 rushing yards per game in all seven of his NFL seasons.
There seems to be a perception that Murray is damaged goods, but he could be one of the better QB values in 2026 fantasy drafts.
Target: Malik Willis (MIA)
Fantasy gamers will be turned off by Miami’s paltry collection of pass catchers, which might be the worst in the league. But the rushing value that Willis offers is the real appeal here.
Willis might rival Lamar Jackson in terms of pure running ability. In six career starts, Willis has averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game and has run for four touchdowns.
And Willis turned into a capable passer during his two seasons in Green Bay. Over 11 appearances and three starts for the Packers, Willis completed 78.7% of his throws and averaged 10.9 yards per pass attempt, with six TD passes and zero interceptions.
Even if Willis posts mediocre passing stats, his rushing numbers should make him startable in 1QB fantasy leagues, and he’ll be cheap in 2026 fantasy drafts.
Avoid: Baker Mayfield (TB)
Mayfield was banged up for much of last season, and so was his supporting cast, which helps explain why Mayfield went from QB3 in fantasy points per game in 2024 to QB19 last season.
Improved health in 2026 might not lead to a full rebound.
Mayfield’s completion percentage fell from 71.4% in 2024 to 63.2% in 2025. He went from 7.9 yards per pass attempt in 2024 to 6.8 in 2025.
The diminutive Mayfield has averaged better than 20 rushing yards per game over the last two seasons, but before 2024, he had never averaged more than 10.3 rushing yards per game in any season.
Mike Evans is no longer with the Buccaneers, having signed with the 49ers. And Mayfield will be working with his fourth playcaller in as many seasons, new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.
QB cost-cutters might want to consider options other than the 31-year-old Mayfield.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Superflex Leagues
Quarterback draft strategy changes in superflex leagues, which allow you to start a second quarterback in one of your flex spots.
The reason to wait to draft a quarterback in a 1QB league is that the scoring gap between an upper-tier QB and a mid-tier QB might not be that big.
But in a superflex league, waiting on quarterback might mean your second-best quarterback is among the worst starters in the league – and it’s no fun to have a second quarterback whose starting job is in jeopardy.
The supply-and-demand dynamics are much different in superflex leagues than in 1QB leagues. There are 32 starting NFL quarterbacks in a week without byes. Ideally, you’ll have at least three NFL starters on your superflex roster. But in a 12-team superflex league, at least four teams won’t have a third quarterback who’s an NFL starter.
In a 1QB league, demand is light, and supply is ample. In a superflex league, demand is high, and supply is limited.
You’ll typically see 6-8 quarterbacks selected in the first round of a superflex startup draft. Once the draft is over, good quarterbacks will be expensive in the trade market.
The consequences of punting the quarterback position in a superflex league are daunting. It’s hard to win games when you’re starting CJ Stroud and Cam Ward, and your opponents are throwing Drake Maye/Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence/Brock Purdy combos at you.
Ideally, you’ll draft an anchor quarterback in Round 1 or Round 2. Beyond the first two rounds, things get more complicated. The goal is to draft opportunistically at the quarterback position to maximize value, but also not get left out in the cold. It’s a difficult balancing act because quarterbacks are almost always overdrafted from Round 2 on in superflex leagues. You may be forced to abandon value-seeking principles when addressing the quarterback position.
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