Fantasy football average draft position (ADP) is ever-changing in best ball. It’s critical to play the market, and the following players are targets or avoids at their respective current ADPs in Underdog best ball drafts. Here are players to target or avoid based on ADP in fantasy football best ball drafts.
- Fantasy Football Research & Advice
- Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Fantasy Football Best Ball Players to Target & Avoid
Let’s dive into a few players to target in best ball drafts based on Underdog ADP.
Fantasy Football Best Ball Targets at Underdog ADP
James Cook (RB – BUF) | ADP: 11.9 (RB6)
Ray Davis (RB – BUF) | ADP: 191.6 (RB57)
The Bills fired Sean McDermott after last year’s Divisional Round loss to the Broncos, and they promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach. Brady will retain play-calling duties, but he brought in long-time offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael to serve as his offensive coordinator.
Carmichael is a trusted offensive mind by Sean Payton, as evidenced by serving as the Saints’ offensive coordinator from 2009-2023, with only 2022 and 2023 under Dennis Allen as the team’s head coach. He has spent time as a play-caller and as a non-play-calling offensive coordinator for Payton. Carmichael was also a senior offensive assistant for Payton with the Broncos the previous two seasons.
Brady is also off the Payton coaching tree. Gamers might initially feel compelled to copy and paste Buffalo’s offensive tendencies from Brady’s time as the offensive coordinator to this year, but that’s probably unwise. Ultimately, while Brady was the team’s offensive coordinator and play-caller, the buck stopped with defensive-minded head coach McDermott. Left to his own devices and after hiring an offensive coordinator with pass-heavy tendencies, the Bills could make a sizable shift in their play-calling this year.
According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Bills were 28th in pass rate over expectation (-3.0% PROE) in 2025 and 12th (1.9% PROE) in 2024. Furthermore, per RotoViz’s pace app, the Bills were 29th in situation-neutral pass rate (51%) from 2024-2025.
The Broncos were fourth in PROE (5.5% PROE) in 2025 and seventh in PROE (7.7%) in 2024, and they were tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (58%) from 2024-2025. Carmichael was only a senior offensive assistant on Denver’s staff for those pass-leaning offenses. Still, according to StatHead, from 2009-2021, when Carmichael was the offensive coordinator for the Saints, New Orleans had the second-most pass attempts (7,851) in the regular season. Buffalo’s rushing attack is potent, so fully flipping to one of the NFL’s most pass-happy offenses might be a stretch, but there’s ample room for them to move up from last year.
So, why are running backs James Cook and Ray Davis featured as targets if I’m projecting the Bills to increase their pass rate? Targets to running backs lead to more fantasy points than rush attempts for them, and Carmichael’s running backs have been heavily involved in the passing attack.
Bills may use James Cook more in the passing game and use Ray Davis/Ty Johnson to take some rushing touches away
Still Cook at the goalinehttps://t.co/mIPZf4e4BX
— Zain Dhanani (@DhananiZain) June 29, 2026
James Cook is expected to be more involved in the passing game:
This is now 3 different sources and this is a top insider for the Bills
If true, huge ceiling elevation for Cook https://t.co/ttNkO38hqK pic.twitter.com/d22q4nlfW5
— Zain Dhanani (@DhananiZain) July 3, 2026
Speculation that Cook is more involved in the passing game is logical.
Unfortunately, Pro Football Focus (PFF) premium player stats only go back to 2013. Still, the following table has notable receiving production from running backs in Carmichael’s offenses from 2013-2023.
Cook had a career-high 309 rush attempts in the regular season en route to the NFL rushing title last season, and he added another 39 attempts in the postseason. His spike in work is a reason for pause, but it’s also a reason for the Bills to ease off his empty-calorie carries between the 20s. Shifting some of his carries into the big bodies along the defensive line for some targets could also be a wise move.
Still, Cook has demonstrated his excellent rushing skills, and he’s a touchdown machine, scoring 32 touchdowns in 33 games in the previous two years. Cook also entered the NFL with receiving chops, logging 1.95 yards per route run (Y/RR) and 0.20 targets per route run (TPRR) on 368 routes in his collegiate career. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, among 58 running backs with at least 100 routes in the 2023 regular season, Cook was tied for 27th in targets per route run (0.20), tied for 17th in receptions (44), ninth in receiving yards per game (26.2), fifth in yards per route run (1.67) and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (four). There’s proof of concept that Cook can excel in the passing game at the NFL level.
I would target Cook as early as the seventh pick in Underdog best ball drafts. However, gamers jamming tons of entries into contests don’t need to be that aggressive on all their teams since Cook’s ADP is at the end of the first round. Gamers drafting only a few teams should be more aggressive on taking Cook ahead of his ADP, though.
As for Davis, he’s a cheap handcuff who has demonstrated the ability to handle a hefty workload and produce. According to Pro Football Reference, Davis has exceeded a 50% offensive snap share three times in his career. In those games, Davis handled 56 rush attempts for 312 rushing yards (104 per game), 5.3 yards per carry, eight targets, seven receptions (2.3 per game), 79 receiving yards (26.3 per game), and two receiving touchdowns. Davis could smash if Cook’s career-high workload in 2025 leads to injuries in 2026.
Colston Loveland (TE – CHI) | ADP: 47.4 (TE3)
Colston Loveland turned it on down the stretch last year. Development isn’t linear for prospects, and cherry picking late-season data can lead to missteps. Still, a logical tale can be told for why it took a while for Loveland to blossom as a rookie.
The rookie’s acclimation to the NFL was delayed as he worked his way back from surgery to repair the AC joint in his shoulder. Cole Kmet is a decent tight end, and he opened the year as the incumbent starter. There wasn’t a need for Ben Johnson to rush Loveland. Johnson also took his time to unleash fellow rookie Luther Burden III fully.
Loveland showcased why he was the 10th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft at the end of the year, including balling out in the playoffs. He first exceeded a 60% snap share in Week 7, and he dipped below that only once the remainder of the year, with a 59% snap share in Week 13. Loveland had the following numbers in 14 games from Week 7 through Chicago’s Divisional Round loss:
- 67% route participation rate
- 9.4-yard average depth of target
- 22.2% air yards share
- 19.1% target share
- 0.26 TPRR
- 6.9 targets per game
- 23.0% first-read rate
- 65 receptions (4.6 per game)
- 852 receiving yards (60.9 per game)
- 2.30 Y/RR
- 0.113 first downs per route run
- 6 receiving touchdowns
- 11.1 half-point per reception (half-PPR) points per game
- 11.6 expected half-PPR points per game
- 0.42 half-PPR points per route run
- 0.43 expected half-PPR points per route run
Trey McBride was the TE1 in half-PPR points per game (11.2) among tight ends that played at least eight games last season, and Tucker Kraft (10.6) was the only other tight end to reach double-digit half-PPR points per game from that sample.
The overall TE1 is in Loveland’s range of outcomes. Moreover, Loveland had a 72.4% route participation rate in the playoffs. If that sticks or takes a step forward, Loveland can be less efficient while still posting monster numbers. The opportunity cost for picking Loveland at his ADP is more palatable than selecting Brock Bowers (20.8 ADP) and Trey McBride (28.6 ADP) at their ADPs.
Loveland is selected around some tantalizing wide receivers, so it’s not as if there’s zero opportunity cost for picking him. At the same time, picking him at the end of the fourth or the beginning of the fifth round allows gamers to lay the foundation with running back and wide receiver through the first three or four rounds. Loveland is an appealing click, and he’s tied for my third-most drafted tight end in Underdog drafts at 16% exposure.
Best Ball Avoids at Underdog ADP
Rashee Rice (WR – KC) | ADP: 26.3 (WR12)
Rashee Rice was suspended for six games to open the 2025 season for reckless driving. Yet, he had his 2025 cut short by a concussion, playing only eight games after playing just four in 2024.
Rice was a target sponge when he played. Among 109 wideouts with at least 200 routes run in the 2025 regular season, Rice was 12th in target share (26.2%) and tied for third in targets per route run (0.31). He was also 15th in yards per route run (2.28) and tied for 13th in first downs per route run (0.112). So, Rice has some stellar numbers beyond his target-earning.
Having said that, Rice is a bit of a gimmick wide receiver. He was 106th in average depth of target (4.9-yard aDOT) among the same sample of 109 wide receivers with at least 200 routes run last year, directly ahead of Khalil Shakir (3.8-yard aDOT).
It made sense to use Rice as a pivot from a plodding rushing attack with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, but it might make less sense after signing explosive Super Bowl 60 MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency.
In addition, there’s more room for the Chiefs to go down in pass rate than up after ranking second in PROE (6.8%) in 2025, second in PROE in 2024 (6.9%) and first in PROE (10.0%) in 2023. Patrick Mahomes is coming off reconstructive knee surgery after tearing his ACL in Week 15 last year. And, again, Kansas City’s big splash on offense in the offseason was signing Walker, which could be a signal they plan to ramp up the rushing attack.
Beyond Rice’s fantasy value being tied to being force-fed low aDOT targets, there’s also the consideration he’s a knucklehead with a track record of making bad decisions off the football field, including breaking the terms of his probation and serving 30 days in jail for testing positive for marijuana.
Rice also underwent a cleanup procedure on his right knee in May. PFF grades aren’t the be-all and end-all, but Rice earned his lowest PFF receiving grade in 2025. Rice also had the lowest yards per target (7.3) of his career in 2025, markedly lower than his 9.2 yards per target in the regular season as a rookie in 2023 and 9.9 yards per target in four games in the 2024 regular season, per Pro Football Reference. Add everything up, and the price tag is too rich for Rice. His range of outcomes is vast, so he could even exceed expectations for his ADP, but Rice’s floor is lower than most of the players going around him.
Xavier Worthy (WR – KC) | ADP: 94.2 (WR44)
If Rice is a lousy selection at his ADP, Xavier Worthy should be a no-brainer pick, right? Nope. The speedster has been an unimpressive pro.
According to StatHead, among 108 wide receivers with at least 75 targets since 2024, including the postseason, Worthy is the WR44 in PPR points per game (10.69), 57th in receiving yards per game (42.9), 58th in catch rate (62.5%), tied for 69th in yards per target (7.6) with DeAndre Hopkins and Jayden Higgins and tied for 64th in yards per reception (12.1). Worthy’s advanced per-route metrics compared to other receivers entering their third season are even uglier.
Year 2 WRs
Ladd McConkey per-route data closer to Xavier Worthy than MHJ https://t.co/0mna3mCzsj pic.twitter.com/6Sp012yKfc
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 2, 2026
Among 86 wide receivers with at least 250 routes run in the 2025 regular season, Worthy was 55th in yards per route run (1.40), tied for 61st in yards per target (7.39), tied for 64th in end-zone targets (three), tied for 52nd in first-read rate (18.0%), tied for 60th in first downs per route run (0.058), tied for 63rd in half-PPR points per route run (0.23), and tied for 38th in expected half-PPR points per route run (0.38).
Worthy hasn’t taken advantage of playing in an extremely pass-happy offense, mostly with a healthy Mahomes and largely without Rice.
Worthy’s apologists will handwave away last year’s production (or lack thereof) due to the shoulder injury he suffered when Kelce truck sticked him in the season opener. Worthy is tiny, though, with a 0th percentile body weight (165 pounds). He deserves credit for toughing out the injury, but if he struggles to produce when he’s banged up, that could be problematic for a player with such a slight build.
Color me skeptical that Worthy needs more target competition from Rice, a big upgrade in the backfield, and Mahomes returning from a torn ACL to unlock his fantasy football potential. Walker is the player I’m the most excited to draft from the Chiefs. As for their pass-catching options, Travis Kelce is fairly priced, and Tyquan Thornton is an intriguing 18th-round dart throw.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.