Early-Round Draft Picks Experts Target & Avoid (Fantasy Football)

Using ECR (expert consensus rankinks) versus current ADP among the top 40 overall players, here’s where our experts are pushing hardest against the market in the first three-plus rounds of a fantasy draft. The names they’d happily draft ahead of the field, and the ones they’d rather let someone else reach for.

2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Let’s look at players our expert consensus targets and fades along with takes from our FantasyPros analysts.

Early-Round ECR Targets

These players are being drafted later than our experts’ consensus rank says they should be — meaning if you’re patient, the market is likely to hand you a discount.

Zay Flowers (BAL) — WR14, Overall RK29 | ECR vs. ADP: +11

There’s a world where Zay Flowers has the talent to be a top-5 fantasy WR if he can ever score TDs. Over 1,200 yards. 86 catches and 5 TDs (WR7) in 2025. WR3 over the last five games. 4+ catches in 13 of his 17 games: a testament to his reliable floor and consistent involvement. 5th in target share (28%). 11th in air yards share (35%). 4th in yards per route run behind Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Luther Burden.
– Andrew Erickson

A.J. Brown (NE) — WR8, Overall RK15 | ECR vs. ADP: +8

A.J. Brown has a new home in New England for the foreseeable future. Brown has been a WR1 in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons (WR10, WR12, WR8, WR8), and I don’t see that stopping this season. Brown moves from an Eagles offense that was 15th in neutral passing rate to a Patriots’ system that was ninth in neutral passing rate and could climb even higher this season with the additions of Brown and Romeo Doubs this offseason. Brown could easily spike a career high in touchdowns this season. Last season, Philly was 32nd in passing rate inside the ten-yard line while the Patriots were 15th. That jump in touchdown fuel (if it all works out) could send him into top five status this season among fantasy receivers. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Brown was ninth in target share (27.5%), 17th in yards per route run (2.23), eighth in first-read share (35%), and 20th in first downs per route run (0.104, per Fantasy Points Data). Brown was also 30th in separation score and 16th in route win rate among the same sample of receivers. While many will worry about Drake Maye spreading the ball around in 2026, I’m not because last year that was related to New England not having an alpha-level receiver like Brown on the depth chart. That isn’t the case now. Brown is a strong WR1 with more upside than he’s had in previous seasons because of the passing volume floor and ceiling for New England this year.
Derek Brown

Tee Higgins (CIN) — WR15, Overall RK31 | ECR vs. ADP: +6

Tee Higgins continues to thrive as Cincinnati’s high-end No. 2 option, finishing as the WR12 overall in 2025 thanks to strong efficiency and double-digit touchdown production. Even with a modest target share, Higgins maximizes his opportunities in one of the NFL’s premier passing offenses led by Joe Burrow. His weekly ceiling remains extremely high, especially near the end zone, although Ja’Marr Chase‘s presence naturally caps Higgins’ overall target volume. As long as he stays healthy, Higgins profiles once again as a reliable fantasy WR2 with league-winning upside if Chase ever misses time.
– Andrew Erickson

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) — WR16, Overall RK32 | ECR vs. ADP: +6

Tetairoa McMillan wasted no time establishing himself as Carolina’s clear-cut WR1, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year after nearly topping 1,100 receiving yards on 126 targets. The rookie standout commanded elite volume immediately, finishing with a 23% target share and massive 41% air yards share despite operating in a run-heavy offense. McMillan consistently delivered as Bryce Young‘s go-to option and flashed massive upside whenever the Panthers leaned into the passing game. After such a polished rookie campaign, T-Mac looks poised to make the jump into the fantasy WR1 conversation entering Year 2.
– Andrew Erickson

Early-Round ECR Fades

These players are going earlier in actual drafts than our expert consensus has them ranked. The field is paying a premium the consensus rank doesn’t fully support.

Josh Jacobs (GB) — RB16, Overall RK36 | ECR vs. ADP: -9

Weeks 1-10: Jacobs was the RB5 in PPG (18.1) with 11 rushing TDs. Then he suffered a knee injury in Week 11. Once he returned in Week 13, he was clearly not himself. RB23 in PPG (10.5). 12 PPG (RB21) from Week 7 onward after hurting his calf. Ended the season as RB11 in PPG (14.3). The Packers RB fell just shy of 1,000 rushing yards despite 254 carries, taking a step back in his second season with Green Bay. If healthy, Jacobs has a top-5 fantasy ceiling. But as the 28-year-old continues to pile up volume and small injuries, fantasy managers should be wary of the production tapering off.
– Andrew Erickson

Jeremiyah Love (ARI) — RB14, Overall RK33 | ECR vs. ADP: -8

Jeremiyah Love went top five in the NFL Draft to the Arizona Cardinals, who already have Tyler Allgeier and James Conner on the depth chart. With that type of draft capital investment, I think Love will be Arizona’s lead back in 2026, but he could have his workload eaten into by Allgeier and/or Conner. Love’s talent isn’t in question. Over the last two years in college, he ranked inside the top 15 backs in each season in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway rate, and elusive rating (per PFF). He’s also a stellar pass catcher, as evidenced by sitting at 17th in yards per route run among FBS backs last year and drawing a 10.9% target share. The Cards look like one of the worst teams in the NFL with concerning quarterback play. The cluttered backfield and worrisome scoring environment could hinder Love in 2026, keeping him as a strong RB2, but locking him out of RB1 status. If he does get the lion’s share of the work, and their grouping of quarterbacks can produce something close to league-average passing production, Love could be a top 12 back.
– Derek Brown

De’Von Achane (MIA) — RB10, Overall RK19 | ECR vs. ADP: -6

Last season, De’Von Achnae was the RB5 in fantasy points per game while racking up 305 touches and 1,838 total yards. After a dip in 2024, he returned to being an otherworldly back in terms of efficiency. Among 49 qualifying backs, Achane was first in explosive run rate, 13th in missed tackle rate, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). He was also a key cog in the passing game, ranking second among backs in target share (18.7%), 12th in yards per route run, and fourth in receiving yards. He was fifth in targets among backs with 85. That number is sure to drop this season with Malik Willis in Miami. I don’t think he’ll be a zero in the passing game, especially considering the receiving depth chart for Miami, but Willis’s rushing ability will lead to fewer checkdowns for Achane in 2026. Achane should still be considered an insanely talented RB1 that could lead the NFL in rushing yards this season, but if his receiving work takes a hit, he’ll probably lack top 3-5 upside at the position.
– Derek Brown

Trey McBride (ARI) — TE2, Overall RK24 | ECR vs. ADP: -6

It will be hard for Trey McBride to top the year he had in 2025. He finished the season with 126 catches for 1,239 yards and 11 touchdowns on 169 targets. Among all pass catchers, McBride trailed only Puka Nacua in receptions. McBride also ranked third in targets among all pass catchers and tied for second in TD catches. It was an impressive follow-up to a 2024 season in which McBride had 111 catches for 1,146 yards and two touchdowns. There are reasons to think that McBride might have a hard time matching his 2025 numbers this season. The Cardinals threw at the highest rate in the NFL last season. That’s not likely to happen again after the team drafted a running back, Jeremiyah Love, No. 3 overall. The Cardinals are also looking to get Marvin Harrison Jr. more involved after two disappointing seasons. McBride is clearly one of the elite tight ends and is worthy of a top-25 draft pick. Just don’t expect a full repeat of last year.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

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