Same exercise we’ve run at every other position (QB, RB, WR). We sorted our season-long projections by total projected FPTS to build a “projection rank,” then compared it to each tight end’s actual ECR to find the widest gaps. One name stands out from the entire field.
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2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Tight End Projections vs. Rankings
Same exercise we’ve run at every other position: we sorted our season-long projections by total projected FPTS to build a “projection rank,” then compared it to each tight end’s actual ECR to find the widest gaps. One name stands out from the entire field.
The Outlier: Greg Dulcich
No tight end in this class has a wider gap between his projection rank and his consensus rank than Greg Dulcich, at +14, by far the largest mismatch, in either direction, in the entire TE class.
Greg Dulcich (MIA) — ECR: TE36 | Projection Rank: TE22 | Projected FPTS: 106.2
Greg Dulcich could be THE late-round tight end to draft in 2026. Last year, he was absolutely awesome when on the field. Among 59 qualifying tight ends, he was fifth in target-per-route-run rate (24%), second in yards per route run (2.64) and yards after the catch per reception (7.69), fifth in first downs per route run (0.110), and sixth in fantasy points per route run (0.50, per Fantasy Points Data). Miami is starved for capable pass catchers for Malik Willis, and with only Will Kacmarek, Seydou Traore, and Ben Sims behind him on the tight end depth chart, Dulcich should be the Dolphins’ every-down tight end. I won’t be surprised if he finishes the season as a TE1.
Projections Are Higher on Them Than Their Rank Suggests
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) — ECR: TE26 | Projection Rank: TE21 | Projected FPTS: 107.4
Pat Freiermuth was the Steelers’ best pass-catching tight end last season, but that didn’t mean much, as Freiermuth finished with 41 catches for 486 yards and four touchdowns. He finished TE24 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. The Steelers’ offensive coordinator last season, Arthur Smith, rotated his tight ends, and Freiermuth had a career-low 51% snap share last year. Freiermuth has topped 60 catches in three of his five NFL seasons, and he’s squarely in his prime at age 27. If new Steelers head coach Mike McCathy and new offensive coordinator Brian Angelichio make Freiermuth a bigger part of the Pittsburgh offense than he was under Smith last year, the veteran tight end could surprise.
Dallas Goedert (PHI) — ECR: TE12 | Projection Rank: TE8 | Projected FPTS: 146.5
Last year was the second time in Dallas Goedert‘s career that he’s finished as a top-six fantasy tight end (TE6 in fantasy points per game). Goedert accomplished this by spiking a career-high a career high 11 receiving touchdowns. Last year, among 59 qualifying tight ends, Goedert ranked eighth in target share (18.4%), 33rd in yards per route run (1.43), 17th in receiving yards per game (39.4), eighth in first-read share (21%), seventh in red zone targets (15), and 21st in first downs per route run (0.083, per Fantasy Points Data). With A.J. Brown out of town, Goedert could easily be the clear second option in the Eagles’ passing attack this season. I wouldn’t rule out Goedert finishing as a top six fantasy tight end again in 2026. At his floor, he’s a strong TE1 even with the additions of Hollywood Brown, Dontayvion Wicks, Makai Lemon, and Eli Stowers this offseason.
Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL) — ECR: TE8 | Projection Rank: TE5 | Projected FPTS: 155.9
Last year, Kyle Pitts had a tale of two seasons. Yes, overall it was a wonderful year as the TE5 in fantasy points per game and easily his best statistical season since his rookie year, but it was wildly different with Drake London in and out of the lineup. Without London, Pitts had a 26.7% target share with 84.4 receiving yards per game, 2.81 yards per route run, a 27.8% first-read share, 0.120 first downs per route run, and 19 fantasy points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). Those are all elite numbers, and if Pitts had put up those stats all year, especially the fantasy points per game, he would have been the TE1 for fantasy. The problem is that with Drake London active, Pitts had a 19% target share, 42.2 receiving yards per game, 1.43 yards per route run, a 20.2% first-read share, 0.093 first downs per route run, and 9.6 fantasy points per game. All of those per route metrics were still quite strong, but the fantasy points per game mark would have made Pitts the TE20 last year. With Kevin Stefanski in town and a passing attack that boils down to London and Pitts at the top alongside Bijan Robinson, the reality of Pitts’ 2026 projection falls somewhere in the middle of all of this. He’s a strong TE1 that still has top-five upside if Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. can give Atlanta at least league-average quarterback play all season.
Mark Andrews (BAL) — ECR: TE15 | Projection Rank: TE12 | Projected FPTS: 133.9
Mark Andrews is coming off easily his worst season in the NFL as the TE23 in fantasy points per game. Last year, Baltimore limited his playing time, as he was 22nd in route share (62.9%, per Fantasy Points Data). I’m expecting that to rebound in 2026 with Isaiah Likely gone, but we still have to see it materialize. Last year, among 59 qualifying tight ends, Andrews was ninth in first read share, but his yards per route run (41st) and first downs per route run (27th) were nothing to write home about. He’s worth taking a flier on late in drafts as your tight end two with the hopes that he can rebound with more playing time in a new offensive system and give us a throwback season in 2026.
Their Rank Is Higher Than the Raw Projection Supports
These tight ends carry a better consensus rank than their projected point total alone would justify.
Chig Okonkwo (WAS) — ECR: TE17 | Projection Rank: TE26 | Projected FPTS: 99.6
The glass-half-full take on Chig Okonkwo‘s 2026 fantasy outlook is that a move from Tennessee to Washington could lead to a career-best fantasy performance. Okonkwo has dealt with some pretty shoddy quarterbacking over his four NFL seasons, and now he’ll be playing with QB Jayden Daniels in a Commanders offense that lacks proven pass-catching talent beyond WR Terry McLaurin. The glass-half-empty take is that if Okonkwo were going to pop as a potentially impactful fantasy TE, we would have seen more signs of an impending breakout by now. Even with the Titans thin on WR talent last season, Okonkwo could muster only a 14.9% target share, and his numbers weren’t substantially better than those of fourth-round rookie TE Gunnar Helm. Okonkwo has had 54, 52 and 56 receptions over the last three years, and he had a career-high 560 receiving yards in 2025, but he’s never scored more than three TDs in a season. Okonkwo is an intriguing sleeper at tight end, but it would be reckless to count on him as a fantasy starter.
Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) — ECR: TE20 | Projection Rank: TE27 | Projected FPTS: 96.7
I’ll be avoiding Oronde Gadsden in drafts this season. Yes, in Weeks 6-18 last year, he had his moments with five TE1 finishes in weekly scoring, but he was also only the TE17 in fantasy points per game. During that sample of games, among 50 qualifying tight ends, he was 36th in target per route run rate, 15th in yards per route run, 22nd in first-read share, and 29th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). After Week 15, he failed to surpass a 70% route share in any game. All of these are concerning red flags before we even get to the Bolts’ additions of Charlie Kolar and David Njoku this offseason. Gadsden looks like he’s locked in a tight end committee for 2026, which is something I don’t have any interest in dealing with for fantasy purposes.
Gunnar Helm (TEN) — ECR: TE24 | Projection Rank: TE29 | Projected FPTS: 87.0
Second-year man Gunnar Helm sits atop the Titans’ depth chart at tight end now that veteran Chig Okonkwo has moved on to Washington via free agency. A fourth-round pick out of the University Of Texas, Helm turned in a solid if unspectacular rookie season, catching 44 passes for 357 yards and two touchdown in an offense that struggled for much of the season. Helm caught 80% of his targets and averaged a respectable 1.45 yards per route run. Titans QB Cam Ward had a rough rookie season overall but played much better late in the season. If Ward can continue to make strides, Helm could become a fantasy-viable TE option in 2026.
Tucker Kraft (GB) — ECR: TE5 | Projection Rank: TE9 | Projected FPTS: 145.0
Last year, before losing the rest of his season to a torn ACL (Week 9), Tucker Kraft was the TE1 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 1-8, among 33 qualifying tight ends, Kraft ranked seventh in target share (18.3%), first in receiving yards per game (67), second in yards per route run (2.71), seventh in first-read share (21.6%), and second in first downs per route run (0.121, per Fantasy Points Data). Kraft was also a YAC gawd, leading all tight ends in yards after the catch per reception and missed tackles forced per reception. We’ll have to see how he’s utilized early in the season coming off the injury. If Green Bay slowly eases him in, I wouldn’t be shocked, but Kraft could easily be a monster value at the tight end position in 2026 if he comes roaring back at 100% earlier than we anticipate.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) — ECR: TE11 | Projection Rank: TE14 | Projected FPTS: 131.0
Dalton Kincaid was wildly efficient in 2025, averaging 14.6 yards per catch, 11.7 yards per target, and 2.70 yards per route run. The problem was that he played only 12 games and 302 snaps. Kincaid had 39 catches for 571 yards and five touchdowns. He was third in TE snaps on his own team last season behind Dawson Knox and rookie Jackson Hawes. The 26-year-old Kincaid lost games to hamstring and abdominal injuries last year. He’s also been dealing with a partially torn PCL in his left knee since late 2024. The injury won’t require surgery, but Bills GM Brandon Beane has said that Kincaid’s 2026 workload might have to be managed. It would be hard for Kincaid to improve upon his efficiency numbers, so he would probably need bigger snap counts to have a more impactful fantasy season in 2026. The outlook for that is murky, and if he plays limited snaps again this season and his efficiency numbers regress to career norms, Kincaid could disappoint. It’s best to regard him as a high-end TE2 for fantasy drafts.
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