Everyone likes to shop for value, right? You never want to overpay for anything, including in a fantasy football draft. As training camp news moves player prices, new values emerge across the draft board. The key is knowing what players are likely to fall, or go later than they should. Using the PPR average draft position (ADP) on CBS, here are five players that are going later than they should and could outperform their ADP.
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Fantasy Football Value Players to Target
Christian Watson (WR – GB) ADP: 65 | (WR30)
The biggest knock on Watson is health. When he’s on the field, he produces elite numbers.
From Weeks 10 through 17, among all wide receivers with a minimum of 200 routes last season, Watson finished fourth in yards per route run, 17th in targets per route run, and seventh in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data Suite.
He averaged 14 fantasy PPR points per game in this span. There really isn’t a big competition for targets in the offense. With only Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, and second-year receiver Matthew Golden, opportunities should be endless.
Despite growing buzz around Watson, his CBS draft ranking leaves plenty of value, as we have yet to see a full 17 games from him. And if we see a full year out of him, he possesses league-winning upside at current ADP.
Josh Downs (WR – IND) ADP: 102 | (WR43)
With Michael Pittman Jr. now in Pittsburgh, it frees up over 100 targets. Obviously, Tyler Warren will see a great deal, and Alec Pierce just secured the bag, but Downs should not be forgotten.
Downs out-targeted all Colts wide receivers with 14 red-zone targets, trailing Warren by only 4. According to Fantasy Points Data Suite, among wide receivers with at least 50 targets, Downs was tied for 23rd in targets per route run.
Considering that Daniel Jones is returning from a torn Achilles suffered in Week 14, his rushing may be limited to start the year, and he may be forced into more short-yardage throws or designed screens for Downs.
He should also see a bump in routes, with his usage likely to increase, making him a really nice value in the middle-to-late rounds of drafts.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB – TB) ADP: 100 | (RB35)
To be clear, Bucky Irving isn’t fading away despite a down season last year. He dealt with multiple injuries, which is why Gainwell offers tremendous value. Given his size and the multiple injuries that piled on, it makes sense to split the workload.
After years of being in a limited role, Kenneth Gainwell finally broke out in Pittsburgh. He caught 73 passes and averaged 13 PPR fantasy points per game last season.
From Weeks 11-18, Gainwell ranked third among running backs in first-read share (15.3%) and second in receiving yards per game (45.4), per the Fantasy Points Data Suite. He also posted the third-highest yards per route run (2.10) among backs with at least 80 routes.
Gainwell is now tied to Baker Mayfield, who is known to throw the deep ball but also isn’t afraid to check it down when needed. Since 2023, Baker Mayfield has ranked no worse than eighth in pass attempts behind the line of scrimmage.
A consistent receiving role with occasional spikes in usage makes him one of the better mid- to late-round running back values on the board.
Kyler Murray (QB – MIN) ADP: 147| (QB18)
The more I think about it, the more excited I get for the ride of Kyler Murray in fantasy land. After seven seasons in Arizona, Murray was released. He joined the quarterback whisperer Kevin O’Connell on a veteran’s minimum, prove-it-type contract in Minnesota.
The QB1 job remains in the air as both Murray and J.J. McCarthy are competing for the head signal-caller position. We all saw how things ended under McCarthy, so Murray should have the edge.
Having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings at your disposal is an embarrassment of riches. It’s arguably the best passing options of his entire career.
Considering the supporting cast and the ability to create yards as a runner, Murray could finish as a top five quarterback, and it would not shock anyone.
Chig Okonkwo (TE – WAS) ADP: 179 | (TE22)
Here’s a TE2 with legitimate TE1 upside. Finishing second on the team in targets remains possible. Despite the Commanders signing Stefon Diggs, there’s still a lot to love about Okonkwo’s opportunity.
Washington moved on from two of their top target-earners from last season in Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz, vacating 41% of the team’s targets.
If Okonkwo can match or even come close to Ertz’s 71.3% route participation rate, then he still has real breakout potential even with Diggs rostered.
From Week 8 on last season, the Fantasy Points Data Suite shows that, among tight ends with at least 200 routes run, Okonkwo in Tennessee ranked ninth in yards per route run, sixth in targets per route run, 14th in receptions, and fifth in yards after the catch per reception.
Going from Cam Ward to Jayden Daniels this year is an upgrade at the quarterback position, which only strengthens his chances at cracking the top 12.
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