Fantasy Baseball Player Notes

Gavin Williams re-established himself as a high-upside rotation anchor in 2025, posting a 3.06 ERA and 3.8 WAR across 167.2 innings after a rocky, injury-affected 2024 campaign. His strikeout rate ticked up to 24.6%, and he held opponents to a .211 average with a well-above-average 137 ERA+, but persistent control issues (11.8% BB rate, 4.5 BB/9) continue to inflate his WHIP (1.270) and FIP (4.39). The improved ground-ball rate (45.6%) and suppressed .254 BABIP helped drive the ERA rebound, though the elevated hard-hit rate (44.4%) suggests some volatility remains. If his 2026 projections forecast even modest gains in command, Williams profiles as a fantasy riser with SP2 upside; however, without tangible walk-rate improvement, he remains a ratio-risk arm despite the strikeout ceiling.

Tanner Bibee took a noticeable step back in 2025, posting a 4.24 ERA and 4.34 FIP across a career-high 182.1 innings after delivering sub-3.50 ERAs in each of his first two seasons. The biggest red flag was a sharp dip in strikeout rate (21.3% K%) paired with a career-worst 3.5% HR rate, as his four-seam/slider combo generated fewer whiffs and more damaging contact despite a heavier ground-ball lean (44.6% GB%). While his walk rate remained solid and his BABIP (.283) suggests little bad luck, the decline in swing-and-miss ability and negative WPA underscore the regression. With 2026 projections forecasting stabilization rather than a full rebound, Bibee profiles as a mild fantasy faller entering draft season — more SP3 than frontline anchor unless the strikeout rate bounces back.