Fantasy Baseball Player Notes

It's not often a player in a major media market puts up a career season, finishes second in the Cy Young voting and ... nobody seems to notice. Well, friends, Mr. Wheeler would like some more of your attention in 2022, albeit with some caution. His 2.78 ERA last season was a career low. It's likely some regression is coming and his ERA will be in the low 3s. He usually strikes out about a batter an inning, but Wheeler punched out 247 in 213 IP last year. Will he be able to equal that pace? The Phillies are counting on him to do just that at the top of their rotation, but you'd be wise to treat him more like a solid All-Star than a Cy Young favorite. If he's your SP2, life is good. If he's your ace, make sure to load up on solid starting pitching in the mid rounds to bolster your staff behind him.

Don't overpay for what you hope Nola will be - the 2018 version of the pitcher who looked like he was on a path to superstardom. Nola's name still resonates, but his stats can be easily replicated four or five rounds after his fourth-round ADP. His 2022 ZiPS projection has him finishing 12-7 with a 3.46 ERA. Other systems are projecting his ERA to be closer to 3.75, which basically makes him Frankie Montas. You'd feel foolish drafting Montas 39th, right? Well, if that was your draft slot plan for Nola, think again.

Suarez was fantastic as both a reliever and a starter last year, compiling a 1.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He was almost equally dominant as a starter and a reliever, though it's worth noting that he had a very soft run of opponents during his 12 starts. More troubling for projecting Suarez is that he had a comically low home run rate (just 0.34/9 innings). Yes, his sinker moves a ton and avoids hard contact, but that's simply not a sustsainable number. He's dealt with visa issues this spring, though looks to be on track for the season, so don't let that concern you much. Instead, just understand that he's due for some major regression, and is likely to pitch closer to a 4.00 ERA this year.

Knebel was labeled as the tentative closer by Joe Girardi early in the spring, and he's done nothing to lose the job since. He rebounded from a terrible 2020 season to put up a 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with the Dodgers last year, and his fastball velocity sat at a robust 96.3 mile per hour. He's already throwing harder than that this spring, and combined with his outstanding curveball, his fastball can perform at an elite level. Knebel has closing experience from his days with Milwaukee, so as long as he can avoid injury, there's every reason to expect him to hold the role all year long. He could easily end up as a top-5 closer if everything breaks right.

Syndergaard has pitched two innings since 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and then having setbacks last season, and he'll get a fresh start with the Angels. Fantasy managers know what he brings to the table when he's at his best. A high-90s fastball, and excellent curveball, changeup, and slider, and the ability to dominate any lineup he faces when he's on. There are obvious injury concerns, but considering his low ADP, he has more upside than any pitcher going around him. Take comfort in the fact that he took a one-year deal in an effort to rebuild his value, and accept the discount on someone who could easily be an SP2 or SP3 if he stays healthy.