Fantasy Baseball Player Notes

Ryan Pepiot logged a career-high 167.2 innings in 2025, but the underlying metrics point to mild regression risk after his ERA rose to 3.86 with a 4.36 FIP. His strikeout rate dipped to 24.6% (down from 26.3% in 2024) while hard-hit rate spiked to 42.8%, contributing to a career-high 26 homers allowed and a .404 SLG against. The walk rate held steady (9.0%), and his 38.2% ground-ball rate was a modest improvement, but the contact quality trend is worth monitoring. The 2026 projections peg him for similar volume with a mid-3.00s ERA and roughly a strikeout per inning, reinforcing his profile as a stable SP3/4 in fantasy formats. Pepiot's swing-and-miss ability remains intact, and the move back to Tropicana Field should correct the issues with the long ball. However, draft him for ratio stability and workload rather than expecting another skills leap.

Everyone seems to be forgetting the Rays are moving back into their spacious, pitcher-friendly ballpark in 2026 and ranking Drew Rasmussen way too low. He gave up more than 1.0 HR/9 for the first time in his career, but allowed twice as many at home in George Steinbrenner Field, which he won't have to deal with this season. His strikeout rate is middle of the road at 21.7%, but his walk rate is an impressive 6.3%, offering a WHIP below 1.10 every year of his career. He started 31 games last season, and even though his xERA (3.43) was higher than his actual (2.76), his ERA and FIP numbers from the previous two years, when he got to pitch at Tropicana Field, were stellar. It's worth it to target all of the Rays pitchers, but Rasmussen leads the way and would make a solid SP3 or SP4 on any fantasy pitching staff.