Don’t ignore Dominic Smith’s power potential if (or when) he eventually finds his way to the majors this year
Coming into the 2016 season as defending National League Champions, the Mets were poised to make another deep playoff run until the injury bug mercilessly swept through their locker room. Three of their five starting pitchers (Steven Matz, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom) went down with major injuries. Even multiple everyday players including Neil Walker (back), Asdrubal Cabrera (knee), Travis d’Arnaud (rotator cuff tear), David Wright (neck/back), Lucas Duda (back) and Wilmer Flores (wrist) went down with significant injuries too. Some of those players who remained active were also forced to play through injuries including Noah Syndergaard (elbow discomfort/bone spurs) and Yoenis Cespedes (strained quad/groin).
Despite the plethora of injuries, the Mets finished second in the NL East with an 87-75 record and managed to secure the first NL Wild Card spot through a late season surge spearheaded by youngsters Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, and veteran Bartolo Colon. Despite the Wild Card berth, the Mets’ 2016 postseason experience was short lived as they were dominated by Madison Bumgarner in the NL Wild Card game at home against the Giants.
Coming into 2017, the Mets have essentially kept their 2016 roster in place (losing only fan-favorite/iron-man Bartolo “Big Sexy” Colon to free agency (Braves)). The Mets resigned Cespedes, Jerry Blevins, Fernando Salas, exercised contract options on Jose Reyes and Jay Bruce and made a qualifying offer to (and accepted by) Neil Walker.
As such, with almost the same roster in 2017, the Mets are once again poised to make a deep playoff run, provided that their starting rotation has eviscerated the injury bug that plagued them in 2016 and can remain healthy. That is, however, a huge “if.” As it is, Zack Wheeler, the Mets’ potential fifth starter, has already experienced tenderness in his elbow following his first throwing session of the spring (which Mets’ brass is currently downplaying).
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Projected Lineup
• Curtis Granderson – CF
• David Wright – 3B
• Yoenis Cespedes – LF
• Jay Bruce – RF
• Neil Walker – 2B
• Asdrubal Cabrera – SS
• Lucas Duda – 1B
• Travis d’Arnaud – C
Notes: Looking at the projected lineup, the Mets remain a deep team on the offensive side of the ball should the injury bug eventually (and most likely) strike. Jose Reyes is ready to step in and handle duties at third base when (not if) David Wright goes down. Also, Wilmer Flores is available to cover third/shortstop in the event of injuries to Wright or Cabrera.
Neil Walker and David Wright will be taking reps at first base in case of a Lucas Duda injury (rumor has it that Jay Bruce will also). We can also expect to see Juan Lagares patrolling center field at some point during the season if and when Curtis Granderson goes down, if Jay Bruce gets traded or if manager Terry Collins opts to platoon Granderson with Lagares. Michael Conforto, should he remain with the major league club coming out of Spring Training, can also be expected to get playing time in right field if Bruce is moved to first base in the event of a Duda injury or if Bruce gets dealt prior to the July trade deadline.
Projected Rotation
• Noah Syndergaard
• Jacob deGrom
• Matt Harvey
• Steven Matz
• Robert Gsellman/Zack Wheeler/Seth Lugo
Notes: The top four rotation spots are secure barring injury. There will be a competition between Gsellman, Wheeler and Lugo for the final spot in the rotation. Coming into spring, Terry Collins intimated that Gsellman had the inside track to the job given Gsellman’s performance in 2016 down the stretch (2.42 ERA in 44 2/3 IP, with 42 Ks, 15 BB and a 1.28 WHIP).
Collins also implied the need to limit Wheeler’s innings in 2017 due to numerous setbacks in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. With Wheeler experiencing elbow discomfort already, one would think Gsellman, barring injury or a horrific spring performance, will land that fifth spot with Wheeler and Lugo both going to the bullpen.
Projected Bullpen
• Jeurys Familia (closer)
• Addison Reed (closer/setup man)
• Jerry Blevins
• Fernando Salas
• Hansel Robles
• Erik Goeddel/Josh Smoker/Tom Gorzelanny/Josh Edgin
• Robert Gsellman/Zack Wheeler/Seth Lugo
Notes: Jeurys Familia is facing a likely suspension to begin the 2017 season due to a domestic violence issue. Familia was arrested back in October of 2016 and charged with assault. Although the case was dismissed by a New Jersey Trial Division judge, Familia is still facing discipline from the MLB under the league’s domestic violence policy.
As such, Familia’s fantasy draft value should certainly take a hit. Addison Reed, coming off a phenomenal 2016 (4-2, 1.97 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 77 2/3 IP, 91 Ks and 13 BB), could be looking at one, if not two, months as the Mets’ closer. Should Reed perform admirably in the role, could Terry Collins opt to keep Reed entrenched as the team’s closer all season? It’s not certain.
As a result, Reed needs to be on all fantasy owners’ radars as a great sleeper RP option. Additionally, in those leagues that reward holds and saves, Reed should be a top-20 RP option heading into drafts.
The last two spots in the Mets’ bullpen are up for grabs. It’s likely that one of the starters who doesn’t land the Mets’ fifth rotation spot will move to the pen as a long reliever, with the other beginning 2017 at Triple-A Las Vegas (most likely Seth Lugo). The last bullpen spot will be between Goeddel, Smoker, Gorzelanny and Edgin, none of whom offer any fantasy value.
Stud: Yoenis Cespedes
Since his arrival at the 2015 trade deadline, Cespedes has transformed the Mets from perennial also-rans into legitimate World Series contenders. In 2016, Cespedes posted a solid .280 31 86 line in only 479 at-bats while dealing with a nagging quad injury and groin injury which cost him some time during the season. Although his 2016 totals tailed off slightly from his 2015 season, Cespedes did raise his OBP to .354 from a .328 OBP in 2015 and was much more selective at the plate.
According to the New York Post, Cespedes worked hard in the offseason to strengthen his lower body to limit the nagging quad injury which impacted him in 2016. Also, Cespedes recently remarked to beat writers that he is more relaxed now that he has a long-term contract in place and is assured of remaining with the Mets for years. Both of these factors bode well for a career year from the 31-year-old.
Assuming the Mets can get more consistency out of the top of the order, namely Curtis Granderson who managed only a .335 OBP last season and some combination of David Wright/Jose Reyes, Cespedes should see an increase in RBI opportunities in 2017.
Additionally, if Jay Bruce can post numbers similar to what he was able to do in Cincinnati, Cespedes should get decent pitches to square up on with Bruce protecting him in the lineup. Cespedes is a top-15 OF option heading into 2017, with only his limited steals output holding him back from elite-OF tier status.
Bounce-Back Candidate: Jay Bruce
In 2016, Bruce hit .250 with 33 HRs, 99 RBI and registered a .506 slugging percentage which was seventh best among all MLB outfielders. As a result, you would think he wouldn’t qualify as a player who could be in the running as a 2017 bounce-back candidate. Unfortunately, Bruce’s peripheral numbers, which included a horrid .309 OBP, 0.9 fWar and a 44/126 BB/K ratio limited his upside, and an abysmal a .219 average and eight HR after his trade to the Mets (187 plate appearances) cost him and his fantasy owners playing time down the stretch.
As a result of re-signing Cespedes, the Mets attempted to deal Bruce in the off-season (to free up salary and bolster the bullpen). But it was to no avail due in large part to his $13M 2017 salary, his poor numbers outside of Cincinnati and a huge number of power hitters available in the off-season market. In failing to move Bruce, the Mets have now stated he will be their starting right fielder in 2017 and, whether or not they eventually deal him before the July trade deadline to free up space for Michael Conforto or Brandon Nimmo, Bruce should be in line for significant playing time.
With more time to adjust to the pressures of New York, and a fully healthy Mets lineup to ease the burden of production on Bruce, he could be in line for a big season beginning in New York and either finishing there or in a more hitter-friendly stadium/environment if he gets dealt. With a FantasyPros ECR of 45 for outfielders (overall ECR of 173), he is a cheap source of power who can easily outperform this ranking and is a player with something to prove to New York fans in his final season of a multi-year contract.
Sleeper: Addison Reed
As mentioned, with Jeurys Familia facing a one or two-month suspension, Reed is going to get the first crack as closer with the Mets in April. Based on his numbers from last season, Reed could potentially run away with the job early in the season which could make Terry Collins question whether he should return Familia to the closer role when he returns either in early May or early June. At the very least, even if Reed doesn’t maintain the closer role all season, Reed (with a FantasyPros RP ECR of 32; overall ECR of 319) can be a source of cheap saves through the first month or two of the season.
He can also certainly help fantasy owners in the WHIP, K and ERA categories. Additionally, as mentioned earlier, in those leagues that reward holds and saves, Reed should be a top-20 RP option heading into drafts.
Bust: Matt Harvey
I am reluctant to call Matt Harvey a true “bust” candidate because the questions related to his forthcoming 2017 performance are health and, clearly, not ability related. In 2014, Harvey missed the entire season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. In 2015, he bounced back in a big way, going 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and 188 Ks in 189 1/3 innings leading the Mets to the 2015 National League Championship.
In 2016, however, Harvey took a huge step back, largely due to a physical ailment – specifically, poor circulation to his pitching hand/thoracic outlet syndrome which caused his fingers to tingle. In just 17 starts before being shut down for the season, Harvey went just 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 76 Ks in 92 2/3 innings. Coming into the 2017 season, Harvey has a current FantasyPros SP ECR of 35 (overall ECR of 126).
Given that he has missed significant stretches of the season in two of the last three years, and undergone two major surgeries over the past four years, Harvey is a tremendous high risk, high reward candidate whose present ECR and ADP may not be justified for fantasy owners. It should be noted that all reports out of Port St Lucie, and Harvey’s past history as a gamer, lean toward him being tremendously motivated to get back on top in 2017. This coupled with the fact that Harvey will be a free agent in two years (after 2018) could very well push him to produce a solid season in 2017.
That said, while I am reluctant to call Harvey a true “bust” candidate, recent injury history renders the overall risk of him returning to 2015 from being too high to draft him in the tenth round of 12-team leagues as an SP2/3. Hopefully, I’m wrong on this.
Late-Round Flier: Robert Gsellman
Robert Gsellman currently has the inside track to the fifth starter slot on the Mets’ staff, a position potentially bolstered by Zack Wheeler’s recent elbow flare-up. If Gsellman does, in fact, land the role, fantasy owners may get a quality SP late in drafts (current SP ECR of 112; overall ECR of 444) or in early FAAB auctions who can put up legitimate SP3/4 numbers. As the spring moves on, Gsellman’s draft value may increase if it becomes clear that the Mets will be sending Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo to the bullpen/Triple-A.
Gsellman is a ranked Mets’ prospect (ranked as the 76th best prospect in baseball by Keith Law on his top-100 prospect list for 2017), so for those who don’t follow the team, rest assure that his 2016 numbers were no fluke. If Gsellman can reduce the WHIP and limit his walks, he can be an absolute steal for savvy owners in 2017.
Prospects to Watch: Amed Rosario (SS) & Dominic Smith (1B)
In January, Keith Law ranked Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith as the third and 29th top prospects, respectively, in all of the baseball on his top-100 prospects list for 2017.
Rosario, an international free agent signing in 2012, hit .324 with 71 RBIs and five home runs in 120 games between Class-A and Double-A in 2016. Law indicated in his analysis that Rosario has MVP potential who projects to hit .300 with some walks and power in the majors.
Smith, who was drafted in the first round of the 2013 draft, and also recently ranked the third-best prospect at his position by MLB Prospect Watch, batted .302 with 14 HR and 91 RBI in 130 games in Double-A in 2016. Smith’s power is continuing to develop exponentially as he has begun to pull the ball more to the left.
In his first two seasons of professional baseball (2014 and 2015) he had just 14 home runs combined. In 2016, he managed to match this total in just one season of play in Double-A. Smith is projected by many to be a 20-homer player.
With a glut of middle infielders on the Mets, including Reyes, Walker, Cabrera and Flores, it is likely that Smith will have the inside track to reach the majors sooner than Rosario in 2017. Depending upon whether Lucas Duda can remain healthy all season, and how the first base backup situation plays out in the spring (with Walker, Wright and possibly Bruce getting reps in at first base), we could see Dominic Smith up sometime mid-season in 2017. In either case, seasonal owners should be aware of both of these prized prospects and, without question, both should already be rostered in dynasty formats.
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Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.
