Losing Love on Valentine’s Day should make LeBron a popular play on Tuesday’s short slate
It’s Valentine’s Day, but the NBA isn’t bringing much love to the court on Tuesday with only three games on the slate and Kevin Love expected to sit out with a knee injury. However, we do still have a “Narrative Street” play with Denzel Valentine who is the perfect option to including in those GPP lineups like the sample tournament lineup I am delivering today. Despite the short three-game slate, there are some potentially intriguing games and roster construction decisions that can set you apart from the field.
You will notice that I reference some of my own custom stats in my NBA DFS articles that I use to help determine my favorite plays. I don’t use the common Defense versus Position (DvP) numbers that most use. Instead, I calculate blended percentages for each stat category (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) that take into account team stats for the season and last five games, as well as a weighted average between similar positions. For example, my shooting guard DvP numbers are a blended between point guard (10%), shooting guard (70%) and small forward (20%) stats for each category.
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Point Guard
Ricky Rubio (MIN): $6,800 vs CLE
Rubio must not like the cold weather in Minnesota because every time he plays at home he heats it up. He is averaging 29.3 FanDuel points per game at home this season, compared to just 24.7 FanDuel points on the road. On Tuesday, Rubio will play at home against a Cavaliers’ team that has allowed increased production to opposing PG in points (+11.5%), rebounds (+8.7%), assists (+11.3%) and steals (+11.4%) which are all categories Rubio can fill up.
Darren Collison (SAC): $5,700 @ LAL
If you want to be a little extra contrarian you could pivot off of Collison to Russell, but I couldn’t bring myself to actually recommend doing so. Where the Lakers have a variety of players who can score, the Kings are limited to mostly DeMarcus Cousins and Collison these days. Assuming Ty Lawson misses another game, Collison is in a great spot going against a Lakers’ defense that allows opposing PG to score more points (+5.7%) and hand out more assists (+14.6) than the average team. His price is still cheap given that he has scored over 34 FanDuel points in each of his last three games.
Other Options
- Kyrie Irving (CLE): $9,000 @ MIN
- D’Angelo Russell (LAL): $5,900 @ SAC
Shooting Guard
Michael Carter-Williams (CHI): $4,600 vs TOR
Shooting guard gets ugly in a hurry on the short Tuesday slate, so we are going with value options including Carter-Williams. His production has been all over the place lately, but if both Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler miss the game, he should see 30-plus minutes giving him a chance to stuff the stat sheet in points, rebounds, assists and steals. If Wade or Butler play, then consider shifting to a red-hot Nick Young.
Denzel Valentine (CHI): $3,500 vs TOR
Flashback to one year ago today, Valentine was in college at Michigan State where he had one of his best college games scoring 30 points with 13 assists on Valentine’s Day. Now in the NBA, Valentine will try to recapture the magic of that day against the Raptors. He played 23 minutes while producing 12.3 FanDuel points with both Wade and Butler out on Sunday. Assuming that Butler and Wade are both out again on Tuesday, Valentine should get the chance to play at least 20 minutes and if things start well for him maybe more. After all, it is his day.
Other Options
- DeMar DeRozan (TOR): $8,700 @ CHI
- Nick Young (LAL): $4,600 vs SAC
Small Forward
LeBron James (CLE): $11,500 @ MIN
No Kevin Love usually means an increase in production for James. In six games without Love this season, James has averaged 52.8 FanDuel points compared to 47.5 FanDuel points when Love is in the lineup. The Timberwolves have played solid defense against opposing SF this season, but James did just put up 58.6 FanDuel points against them in Cleveland on Feb. 1. At a position without many good value options, it is worth paying up. Don’t get cute.
Andrew Wiggins (MIN): $7,900 vs CLE
Wiggins has increased his productivity since Zach LaVine went down with a season-ending injury. Over his last five games, he is averaging 27.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.0 steals per game for an average of 40.9 FanDuel points during that stretch. Of course, he also has the revenge factor playing against the team that drafted him and subsequently traded him.
Other Options
- Matt Barnes (SAC): $5,100 @ LAL
- Doug McDermott (CHI): $3,800 vs TOR
Power Forward
Taj Gibson (CHI): $4,600 vs TOR
Power forward is another ugly position on the short three-game slate. While Gibson is nothing flashy and his upside is somewhat limited, he offers a solid floor most nights and has a favorable matchup against the Raptors. The Raptors have allowed increased production in both points (+5.3%) and rebounds (+5.6%) to opposing PF this season giving Gibson a little more upside than usual.
Channing Frye (CLE): $4,600 @ MIN
With Love out, Frye comes into play at a weak PF position. With Love out of the lineup, Frye is averaging 21.4 FanDuel points compared to just 14.2 FanDuel points when Love is in the lineup, while Frye’s minutes spike to about 24 per game. Note that Derrick Williams has been playing about 20 minutes over the last his last two games since being acquired by the Cavaliers, so he could also be a good lower-owned pivot if you want to be more contrarian.
Other Options
- Gorgui Dieng (MIN): $5,600 vs CLE
- Derrick Williams (CLE): $4,100 @ MIN
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): $10,400 vs CLE
Look for DeMarcus Cousins to be very popular on the Tuesday slate, which makes Towns an excellent pivot at the position in GPPs with just as much upside and lower ownership. Towns and Rubio make a perfect Valentine’s Day couple, as Towns is also much more productive at home averaging 47.4 FanDuel points in Minnesota compared to just 39.1 FanDuel points when he leaves the land of 10,000 lakes.
Other Options
- DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): $11,400 @ LAL
- Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): $5,900 @ CHI
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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
