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8 Overvalued Rookies (Fantasy Football)

May 24, 2017
D'Onta Foreman

The former Longhorn, D’Onta Foreman, won’t have such a clear path in the NFL

If you didn’t notice, most of the commissioner sites opened even earlier this season compared to last. It’s just another sign that football is alive and well on the minds of many with dynasty drafts starting up in the near future. Naturally, part of the intrigue is the new rookie class that will be looking to put their stamp on the league for the upcoming years.

When it comes to rookies, picking the right one can set you up for years of success. On the flip side, blowing an early round pick on a dud could set you back a while. To make sure you don’t end up in that second group mentioned, we’re asking our featured experts below to name which running backs and wide receivers they feel are being overvalued in the current consensus dynasty rankings.

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Q1. What Rookie RB do you feel is overvalued according to the Dynasty Rankings and why?

D’Onta Foreman (HOU)
“With a less than clear path to regular snaps behind Lamar Miller in Houston, I currently find D’Onta Foreman to be overvalued as the consensus ranked RB8. The 21-year-old out of Texas could make an impact as a complimentary piece in 2017, but he has reportedly shown up to rookie minicamp out of shape. If this trend continues throughout the offseason, it will be difficult for Foreman to compete behind a proven talent like Miller.”
Cory Evans (Dynasty Nerds)

“Although he holds the pedigree of being a third round pick, D’Onta Foreman is being greatly overvalued as the RB8 and 15th ranked overall player. His straight-like speed will be useful to the Houston Texans as a change-of-pace back, seeing no more than 7-8 carries per game. His lack of lateral agility and ability to maintain quickness while bouncing the rock to the outside will limit his time on the field. Foreman will be more useful to the Texans and his much more talented counterpart Lamar Miller than he will be to any dynasty teams.”
Riley Bymaster (Dynasty Trade Calculator)

Jeremy McNichols (TB)
“One running back I continue seeing viewed as a year one contributor is Jeremy McNichols. The affinity for the former Boise State running back is due in large part because he is viewed as a similar player to his Buccaneer teammate Doug Martin. Those similarities being where he played his collegiate football and his height. Unfortunately, his playing style is not similar. He will have to beat out Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers who could fill the running back role if Tampa Bay decides to part ways with Doug Martin. If Martin remains on the team week one, McNichols may be relegated to special teams duties for year one and beyond if the team turns to running back in 2018.”
Shaun Crandall (Dynasty Football Factory)

Alvin Kamara (NO)
“Kamara is ranked too high given the pecking order in New Orleans. He should have value as a PPR back at some point, but it’s hard to see him having much value on passing downs as long as Mark Ingram is around. I’d put Perine, Hunt, and Foreman ahead of him.”
Sablich Brothers (5th Down Fantasy)

Joe Williams (SF)
“Williams is the player that stands out for me as overvalued, simply because his talent doesn’t amount to a 2nd round pick. There has been a lot of chatter about how he is a system guy and that he was hand-picked by Kyle Shanahan. Bottom line, he’s got to pass Carlos Hyde to be relevant and his talent isn’t good enough to do that. Your best hope as a Williams supporter is that Hyde leaves via free agency after this year. ”
Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Q2. What Rookie WR do you feel is overvalued according to the Dynasty Rankings and why?

Chris Godwin (TB)
“After an impressive performance at the NFL Scouting Combine, Chris Godwin caught the attention of fantasy football enthusiasts. The Penn State product was then selected in the third-round of this year’s draft, but Tampa Bay is a less than ideal landing spot due to the presence of Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, and O.J. Howard. As a result, I believe that Godwin’s WR6 ranking is overvalued. He remains a sound long-term stash in dynasty formats, but his current price is a bit lucrative compared to his actual rookie outlook in a crowded offense.”
Cory Evans (Dynasty Nerds)

“Sad to say that it’s Chris Godwin, though it’s not necessarily due to lack of talent. He landed on a team with Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, and O.J. Howard as pass-catchers in front of him, and that’s not to mention Cameron Brate and the pass-catching running backs. His talent is solid, good enough to play in the NFL right away, but he’s not going to get a chance to make an impact for a few years, unless there’s an injury in front of him. Being taken as the fifth receiver off the board is too high for a player that can be bought much cheaper in a year or two. Trust me, let someone else take him and then get him on the cheap next off-season.”
Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

John Ross (CIN)
“Ross will be another case of being more valuable to his NFL team than he will be to our dynasty teams. Ross’ ability to stretch the field and take the tops off of defenses will benefit the likes of A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd, more than it will benefit Ross himself. With the Bengals finally having a legitimate speedster in the offense, it will open up more opportunities to run the ball with the newly acquired Joe Mixon. Ross will help the Bengals’ offense more than his own dynasty value, especially when he’s currently valued at WR3 and number 9 overall.”
Riley Bymaster (Dynasty Trade Calculator)

Curtis Samuel (CAR)
“Samuel is someone I view as a player unlikely to meet the potential placed upon him due to a number of factors. He is still learning to play wide receiver and his production could be limited by fellow rookie Christian McCaffrey who himself will flourish in the flat and slant routes designed to open the middle of the field for Cam Newton. He will be looked upon to fill the role left by Ted Ginn Jr., however, Samuel doesn’t possess the same level of receiving ability, so it may take a couple years before he settles into a role. I’d let someone else draft the former Buckeye and then target him once the owner gets frustrated with his lack of production after year one.”
Shaun Crandall (Dynasty Football Factory)

Mike Williams (LAC)
“Given that Williams is far from a sure thing to enter this season as a starting receiver, it’s hard to accept the WR2 ranking. He’s also already dealing with back injuries that are keeping him out of OTAs, which will only set him back further. I like the upside of Chris Godwin in Tampa Bay more than Williams and John Ross, who are both ranked higher.”
Sablich Brothers (5th Down Fantasy)

Thank you to the experts for naming their overvalued rookies. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice and subscribe/listen to our latest podcast below for more fantasy info.

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