FanDuel MLB Lineup Advice: Monday (6/12)
Nine games await us for the main slate as we kick off a new week. Temperatures are elevated throughout most of the country, and outside of Minnesota, precipitation doesn’t look to be an issue. As of this morning, every contest features a game total of at least 9.5 runs, so this could wind up being a high-scoring evening. Let’s take a look at a tournament lineup for FanDuel.
Jacob deGrom (NYM): $9,700 vs. CHC
deGrom is coming off of two straight duds, and now he will face an underachieving lineup who could wake up at any time. This certainly introduces a bit of risk, but I’m willing to roll the dice at a relative discount tonight. The home runs (1.5 HR/9) and walks (3.75 BB/9) are a bit of a concern for deGrom, but I’m willing to pin some of the issues with home runs on an elevated HR/FB rate (20%). The walks are still worrisome, but with his velocity up and a career-high strikeout rate (11.75 K/9), there’s still a lot to like going forward. Toss in an xFIP of 3.24 (ERA is 4.75) and a BABIP of .350, and there’s reason to be optimistic about deGrom’s chances for improvement ahead. The Cubs rank 24th against right-handed pitching with a 22.3% strikeout rate this season, and they’ve nearly mirrored that over the last 30 days. I’m hoping a lot of owners flock to Stephen Strasburg and Rick Porcello tonight, which should keep deGrom’s ownership levels down just a bit.
- Stephen Strasburg (WAS): $11,400 vs. ATL
- Rick Porcello (BOS): $8,800 vs. PHI (GPP)
- Luis Perdomo (SD): $6,800 vs. CIN (very risky GPP)
Welington Castillo (BAL) : $2,900 @ CWS
Castillo is two games removed from a second stint on the disabled list, and after playing twice over the weekend in New York, I’m hoping the rust is slowly going away. The Orioles are struggling across the board right now, and I think it’s their offense that’s going to have to wake up and carry the team. They are a dangerous bunch, but they’ve clearly not performed to their potential to this point. Enter tonight’s opposing pitcher, Mike Pelfrey, who can help cure the blues. Pelfrey sports a .239 BABIP and an xFIP pushing five, which when coupled with a strikeout rate of just 5.4 K/9, could mean more rocky starts are on the horizon. This is a good park for right-handed power, and I don’t mind taking a flier on someone with a little pop like Castillo as a result.
Mitch Moreland (BOS) : $3,500 vs. PHI
Jerad Eickhoff’s issues with left-handed hitters has carried over into 2017, as his hard minus soft contact rate this season sits at 25.6%. Moreland and the Red Sox have a high implied run total tonight, and with temperatures at first pitch hovering around 90 degrees, there could be plenty of fireworks in Boston tonight. Moreland continues to be a steady presence in this lineup, and he should see plenty of run producing opportunities this evening.
- Joey Votto (CIN): $4,400 @ SD (GPP)
- Matt Holliday (NYY): $3,800 @ LAA
- Chris Davis (BAL): $3,700 @ CWS (GPP)
- Lucas Duda (NYM): $2,900 vs. CHC
- Matt Adams (ATL): $2,400 @ WAS (risky GPP)
Starlin Castro (NYY) : $3,300 @ LAA
Castro is hitting .325 with 12 home runs, yet is priced below hitters with a far lower batting average, or hitters that carry a decent average but lack home runs. This Yankees’ offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and despite leaving the friendly confines of home, it’s tough to not maintain some exposure to them. Alex Meyer appears to be a promising prospect, but his inconsistencies could get him into trouble against an offensive juggernaut like the Yankees.
- Daniel Murphy (WAS): $3,800 vs. ATL
- Brian Dozier (MIN): $3,600 vs. SEA (GPP)
- Jose Altuve (HOU): $3,400 vs. TEX (GPP)
- Jonathan Schoop (BAL): $3,300 @ CWS (GPP)
Todd Frazier (CWS): $3,300 vs. BAL
Don’t look now, but Frazier has collected 14 hits over his last 37 at-bats (.378 AVG) along with hitting three home runs over that span. This is a welcome sight after such a dreadful start to the season, and he stands to keep it rolling tonight. Wade Miley is allowing a 35.2% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season, and after a surprising start to the season, he continues to struggle as of late. This is a great scoring environment tonight in Chicago, so I don’t mind taking a chance on Frazier, as all of the contextual factors line up for another strong outing.
Tim Anderson (CWS): $3,100 vs. BAL
Anderson likely won’t be afforded a spot high in the order, but I still don’t mind utilizing him against a reeling pitching staff tonight. I have harped on the overall expected scoring environment a few times already, so be sure to have some exposure to this contest. Anderson doesn’t have eye-popping numbers against lefties, but he’s not exactly awful either. I will note that if for some reason Jordy Mercer gets pushed up in the Pirates’ batting order, I would switch to him for the same price.
- Xander Bogaerts (BOS): $3,700 vs. PHI
- Carlos Correa (HOU): $3,600 vs. TEX (GPP)
- Jordy Mercer (PIT): $3,100 vs. COL (preferably if top six in order)
Jay Bruce (NYM): $3,600 vs. CHC
John Lackey has been hit hard by lefties this season, and while some of the home run issues have been due to an elevated HR/FB rate, it cannot all be pinned on luck. Bruce is riding an eight game hitting streak, and he’s hit four home runs over that span, pushing his season home run total to 16. He is a great tournament target against a pitcher who is getting destroyed by lefties, and price is very affordable as well.
Andrew Benintendi (BOS) : $2,800 vs. PHI
I noted earlier that Jerad Eickhoff’s struggles with lefties has carried over into the 207 season, and with Boston having a healthy team total, I don’t mind targeting Benintendi as a cheap way to access this offense. After hitting a rough patch in May, Benintendi has slowly pulled it together as of late, as he’s collected eight hits over his last seven games (.320 AVG), including three home runs.
Seth Smith (BAL) : $2,800 @ CWS
As a leadoff hitter on the road against a bad pitcher, Smith could be looking at four or five plate appearances tonight. I noted earlier that the Baltimore offense is struggling, but they do have a chance to get things going against Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey’s hard minus soft contact rate to lefties sits at 21.5%, which could mean trouble against an offense that probably has some frustrations to release after a weekend thumping at the hands of the Yankees.
- Charlie Blackmon (COL): $4,900 @ PIT (GPP)
- Aaron Judge (NYY): $4,800 @ LAA (GPP)
- Bryce Harper (WAS): $4,600 vs. ATL
- Nelson Cruz (SEA): $4,400 @ MIN (GPP)
- George Springer (HOU): $3,500 vs. (GPP)
- Billy Hamilton (CIN): $3,100 @ SD (GPP)
- SP – Jacob deGrom (NYM): $9,700 vs. CHC
- C – Welington Castillo (BAL): $2,900 @ CWS
- 1B – Mitch Moreland (BOS): $3,500 vs. PHI
- 2B – Starlin Castro (NYY): $3,300 @ LAA
- 3B – Todd Frazier (CWS): $3,300 vs. BAL
- SS – Tim Anderson (CWS): $3,100 vs. BAL
- OF – Jay Bruce (NYM): $3,600 vs. CHC
- OF – Andrew Benintendi (BOS): $2,800 vs. PHI
- OF – Seth Smith (BAL): $2,800 @ CWS