Who Are the 2017 Fantasy Football MVPs?

This is a loaded question, right? I mean, isn’t the fact that we’re drafting Le’Veon Bell or David Johnson at No. 1 overall a clear sign that they’re expected to be the fantasy MVPs? Sure, we’re projecting them to finish with the most points, but that doesn’t mean they are the fantasy MVPs. Think about it, is Matt Ryan the best quarterback in the NFL? No, but he was the most valuable to his team last year, according to the MVP voters.

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When I think about fantasy MVPs, I think about the players who were on the most championship teams. Those players in 2016 were David Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Jordan Howard. While Johnson and McCoy were first-rounders, Howard was found in the double-digit rounds. If we go back to 2015, the players on most championship rosters were Tim Hightower, David Johnson (again), and Doug Baldwin, all players who were drafted outside the top 120 overall. Those are the fantasy MVPs, so let’s talk about which players are likely to wind up on the most championship rosters in 2017. I’ll attempt to give one from the top of drafts, as well as one from the not-so-obvious part of drafts.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees (NO) and Matt Ryan (ATL) Current ADP: 32 overall and 39 overall
Well this gets us off to an odd start, right? Why are two quarterbacks included together, especially when they are both being taken sooner rather than later? Well, because they happen to be playing against each other twice during the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 14 and 16. Brees will play against the Jets while at home in between, while Ryan will play on the road against the Buccaneers. Below, you’ll find the chart that includes the last four meetings between the Falcons and Saints, with the four biggest games against each other coming in 2016 (most recent at the top).

 
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) Current ADP: 94 overall
Everyone and their grandmother know about Roethlisberger’s home/away splits over the last three years. So, when you see Roethlisberger at home for two of the final three games, including a Sunday night game against the Ravens, as well as a home-game against the Patriots which has shootout potential written all over it, you should get excited. In the championship week, Roethlisberger will match up against the Texans, who lost their top cornerback in free agency this offseason. That game will also be played indoors, where if there’s one place Roethlisberger didn’t struggle on the road last year, it was against the Colts on Thanksgiving, in a dome. If he has Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Le’Veon Bell on the field at the same time, this offense is likely to be unstoppable.

Running Backs

Devonta Freeman (ATL) Current ADP: 8 overall
Remember when we talked about Matt Ryan and Drew Brees and the fact that they played against each other twice in the fantasy playoffs? Well, these high-scoring affairs have their effect down the roster, too. Freeman has played six career games against the Saints, and he’s scored at least 13.4 standard fantasy points against them in five of them, including three of them with 23.7 or more points. The only game he didn’t hit that number was the first game of his NFL career, where he saw just four touches in that game. Since then, he’s averaged 143.6 total yards, 1.2 touchdowns, and 21.2 fantasy points against them. Receiving the contract that he did just a few weeks ago, the Falcons view him as their clear-cut star in the backfield.

Doug Martin (TB) Current ADP: 79 overall
This is one that most people may scoff at considering he’s going to miss the first three games of the season, but something feels different about him this year. It’s a similar feeling that we got prior to his 2015 season, where his ADP was down around the RB25-30 range after an uninspiring 2014 campaign. The buzz was all over camp, but still, fantasy owners were weary that he’d produced just one great season. He went on to accumulate over 1,400 rushing yards for the second time in his career, something only Adrian Peterson has done in the last five years. He’ll play at home against the Lions and Falcons in the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, which should pay massive dividends. Approach with caution, but also with excitement.

Bonus: C.J. Anderson (DEN) Current ADP: 50 overall
The Broncos defense is likely solid enough to keep them in a majority of games, right? That would seem to mean they’ll be in the playoff race, right? Well, down the stretch, Anderson will be leaned on even more than usual when they host the Jets in Week 14, head to Indianapolis to play the Colts in Week 15, and then on the road against the Redskins in Week 16. All three of those teams were bottom-15 against fantasy running backs last year, including bottom-six for the Colts and Redskins. These will likely be must-win games for the Broncos. Anderson could win you a fantasy title this year.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs (MIN) Current ADP: 71 overall
Most scoff at strength of schedule, but you really shouldn’t when it comes to wide receivers. The reason being is that cornerback talent is cornerback talent, regardless to the other 10 men who surround them on the field. Not only does Diggs have one of the easiest cornerback schedules throughout the season, but his playoff schedule is drool-worthy. In Weeks 14 and 15, Diggs will line up against Captain Munnerlyn of the Panthers, Darqueze Dennard of the Bengals. Of the 113 cornerbacks who saw at least 30 targets in coverage, Dennard allowed the second-highest completion percentage (86.8 percent), while Munnerlyn allowed the sixth-highest (76.5 percent). And then in Week 16, he’ll go up against the Packers secondary, and specifically Damarious Randall, who allowed eight touchdowns in his coverage last year, the second-most among all cornerbacks. If Diggs is healthy, he’ll be on a lot of championship rosters.

Kenny Britt, Corey Coleman (CLE) Current ADP: 117 and 123 overall – vs. GB, vs. BAL, at CHI
Despite what everyone claims, we aren’t in the know as to which one of the Browns receivers will see the majority of targets. While Britt is the popular choice among fantasy analysts, I won’t dismiss Coleman. Whatever the case, it’s possible that both wide receivers light up the stage when it matters most, as the Browns playoff schedule is among the best in football. They’ll play the Packers in Week 14, a team with a less-than-ideal secondary, as evidenced by the 26 touchdowns they allowed to wide receivers last year. They allowed 462.4 fantasy points to wide receivers last year, which was 38.2 more than any other team in the league. The Ravens are their Week 15 opponent and they allowed 21 wide receiver touchdowns last year, which ranked third-most in the league. Finally, they’ll play against the Bears secondary that lacks a true playmaker in Week 16.

Honorable Mention: Jeremy Maclin (BAL)

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski (NE) Current ADP: 20 overall
Tight end is the most difficult position to lock down from a strength of schedule standpoint, but Gronkowski overcomes all obstacles regardless. This was the obvious choice at tight end, because if he’s on the field, he’s giving you the biggest advantage at a largely unpredictable position. The Patriots will play at the Dolphins in Week 14, at the Steelers in what should be a shootout in Week 15, and then at home versus the Bills in Week 16. He didn’t play against the Dolphins last year, but his totals against the Steelers (93 yards, touchdown) and Bills (109 yards, touchdown) were phenomenal.

Austin Hooper (ATL) Current ADP: 165 overall
If you haven’t noticed a trend here, the Falcons have a lot of players who could win you a fantasy championship due to the fact that they play the Saints twice in the fantasy playoffs. The best part about Hooper against the Saints is that they’ve essentially never played against him. They played twice in 2016, but Hooper didn’t have a role, seeing zero targets in the first game, and missing the second game. When looking for a late-round tight end to be a potential game-changer, you want to snag one from a high-scoring offense. When the Falcons passed on re-signing veteran Jacob Tamme, they showed confidence in Hooper. Don’t sleep on the second-year tight end, especially during the fantasy playoffs.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.