This is one of the most exciting times for evaluating rookies in the NFL. We’ve wrapped up 10 weeks of football, and we’re starting to develop an understanding of what kinds of prospects we’re dealing with.
Not everyone can blast out of the gates like Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Deshaun Watson. Some players take a little more time to become fantasy-relevant, and that can happen for a few reasons. Just because a young player isn’t seeing heavy usage now doesn’t mean that he will be a bust.
Talented players sometimes have to wait behind veterans or other studs before they can finally break out. This is exactly the time of year when we start to see some of those players shine. Whether it’s due to injuries, suspensions, offensive shakeups, or all their work in practice paying off, some rookies come into their own at this point in the season.
With that in mind, this week we will be looking at some of the rookies who got their chances in Week 10. They may never ascend to stardom, but theirs are good names to keep in mind for the future. What may look like a flash in the pan this year could end up being next year’s waiver wire stud.
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Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
Austin Ekeler has a heartwarming story. After going undrafted, he immediately tried out for the Chargers as a free agent and made the cut to the final roster. He didn’t get down on himself for going undrafted; he worked hard and earned a spot on his favorite team.
Ekeler impressed in the preseason, so it’s less surprising that he’s impressing now than it is that he wasn’t given more of a chance to impress earlier. Over the Chargers’ last three games Ekeler has staked out a 31.6 percent snap share and has had double-digit touches in two of those games.
He’s earning (or rather stealing) these opportunities from Melvin Gordon, too. Ekeler has been so effective with his touches that the team has been all but forced to give him more opportunities. That’s precisely what happened in Sunday’s match against the Jaguars, where Gordon out-touched Ekeler just 21:15, and where Ekeler vastly out-produced Gordon on the ground and in the air.
Taking a look at Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metrics paints a similar picture (for more information about DYAR, a metric that measures the value of a running back, check out their website here). Gordon clocks in with a rushing DYAR of -44, whereas Ekeler’s DYAR is 7. In receiving, Ekeler’s DYAR of 91 clobbers Gordon’s 34.
Take a look at the Success Rate metric over at SharpFootballStats.com, which measures the percentage of a running back’s plays that are successful. Ekeler’s success rate is a top-notch 52 percent, meaning that 52 percent of the times the Chargers give Ekeler the ball, he is effective. Gordon’s is a near-league-worst 33 percent.
Ekeler is an outstanding talent, and that was visible on Sunday. His performance was good for a finish as the RB3 in fantasy in Week 10, but unfortunately, we probably won’t be seeing much more from the promising rookie as long as Melvin Gordon remains planted in front of him on the depth chart. Still, he’s worth a stash as a high-end handcuff if the backfield opens up.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
Chris Godwin was a solid prospect coming out of the draft that landed on a crowded depth chart. The Buccaneers already had Mike Evans as their clear WR1, had just signed DeSean Jackson in the offseason, and already had a decent slot receiver in Adam Humphries. It was far from an ideal landing spot.
This was the primary reason Godwin, whom head coach Dirk Koetter compared to Roddy White, had played no more 37.9 percent of the team’s offensive snaps before Week 10. However, Mike Evans’ one-game suspension vaulted Godwin’s snaps all the way up to 100 percent, and he showed strong in Sunday’s game against the Jets.
The unfortunate thing about Godwin’s big chance was that it came with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the quarterback. It would have been preferable to have Jameis Winston, the team’s franchise quarterback, throwing to him, but Winston’s injury left Fitzpatrick in charge.
Fitzpatrick targeted Godwin a whopping 10 times, but only completed five of those passes. It was a shame because in multiple instances (including an interception) Godwin had beaten his coverage only to have Fitzpatrick miss the mark.
The interception particularly stung because if Fitzpatrick had led Godwin, it likely would have gone for a touchdown. Instead, the under-thrown pass allowed the defender to get leverage and win the jump ball against an off-balance Godwin.
Godwin’s usage was still encouraging though. He led the team in snaps, routes run, and targets in Evans’ absence, showing that the team valued his presence on the field and that his presence demanded targets. The team didn’t just use DeSean Jackson as their replacement WR1; they put Godwin right in Evans’ shoes. With Evans returning it’s unlikely that we see more of Godwin in Week 11 but know that if he does someday get the opportunity, he’s a talented player and has shown it before.
Keelan Cole (WR – JAC)
Keelan Cole was another preseason standout that snagged a spot on the Jaguars’ final roster after going undrafted in the 2017 NFL Draft. He might have been a small-school receiver in college, but his work ethic has carried him far.
Check out this interview he had leading up to the draft, where he describes how disappointing it was not to be recruited out of high school. He didn’t quit then; he worked hard, walked onto his college’s football team and secured a scholarship (and even graduated with a bachelor’s degree).
A college walk-on turned NFL walk-on? It’s hard not to like a story like that. He has a history of beating expectations, and now he’s beating defenses. In the preseason he destroyed Patriots’ cornerback Cyrus Jones on a 97-yard touchdown, and on Sunday he nearly had a field day against the Chargers.
He and Blake Bortles nearly connected on a deep touchdown pass that just barely slipped through Cole’s outstretched fingertips. It was one of four deep shots Bortles threw to him on the night (Cole racked up eight targets during the game), including two classic Bortles throws and one completion for 36 yards.
What is perhaps most surprising is just how he can get behind defenses. He isn’t particularly fast; his 4.64 40-yard dash time ranks in the 18th percentile. Cole is just plain good at football, which is what the Jaguars saw in the preseason and is why he’s seeing playing time now.
Sunday marked Cole’s highest snap percentage yet at 83.3 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. His eight targets were a season-high and could develop into more of a consistent number going forward due to the injury Allen Hurns suffered late in that game. With Hurns injured and Dede Westbrook working his way off of the injured reserve, it’s a good spot for Cole to show us more of what he’s got.
Conclusion
That wraps up this week’s Rookie Report. I hope you all enjoyed hearing about some of the deeper rookies out there in the NFL. These guys are all talented players that could shine given the right opportunity, so learning about them now can help you get in on quicker than your opponents down the road.
I’ll be back next week with the Week 11 Rookie Report. Until then, good luck in your matchups this weekend and get excited to watch Corey Davis square off against JuJu Smith-Schuster tonight on Thursday Night Football.
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Aidan Mcgrath is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Aidan, check out his archive and follow him @ffaidanmcgrath.
