QBs
Matt Moore: As of this moment, I’m going to assume that Moore plays for Jay Cutler, who is in the concussion protocol as of the time I’m writing this. The matchup against the Patriots may not look great, but if you’re a believer in garbage time, there should be plenty of it. The Patriots are favored by more than two touchdowns in a divisional game, something you almost never see. After allowing every one of the first eight quarterbacks to play against them to average 7.1 or more yards per attempt, the Patriots have held Brock Osweiler to 6.7 and Derek Carr to 4.8 over the last two weeks. It’s really odd considering they lost Dont’a Hightower before those games. But we have to take notice that after allowing six straight 300-yard games to start the season, the Patriots haven’t allowed a quarterback to top 237 yards over the last four games. Because of their recent success, Moore is only an option in 2QB leagues.
Tom Brady: What could possibly go wrong in this matchup? Brady, the game’s top quarterback at the moment, versus the Dolphins, the game’s worst defense at the moment. Over the last five weeks, the Dolphins have not held a team to less than 27 points and have allowed two teams to score 40 or more points. In that timeframe, they’ve allowed 12 passing touchdowns while intercepting just two passes. There is no logical argument you can make that would have you fade Brady. He’s the QB1 on a team whose implied team total sits over 30 points.
RBs
Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake: Just as we thought we knew how this Dolphins run game would operate, Adam Gase goes and gives Drake just seven carries against a beatable Bucs defense. He had his worst game since Jay Ajayi left, but this type of stuff will happen when you get just 6-9 carries per game. Williams has had a more secure role, despite beat reporters saying that Drake was the early-down favorite. Williams hasn’t gotten much more, though, as he’s totaled in between 7-10 carries since Ajayi left. This is a messy timeshare right now, so predicting one of them to post more than RB3 numbers against the Patriots would be hard. There are times where we have to admit we don’t know how things will shake out and this is one of those times. I can tell you that I believe Drake is the better running back, but that I believe Williams will likely continue to edge him in touches. They’re both risky RB3’s this week.
Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, and James White: We’re still wondering whether or not Chris Hogan will return this week, but if he does, expect the running backs to have their target share eaten into. Over the last two weeks, they’ve seen a combined 19 targets, boosting their fantasy floor. After Burkhead fumbled early in the first quarter, he didn’t see many snaps for the remainder of the game and finished with just nine touches. Meanwhile, Lewis is the only one who has done nothing but earn more work going forward. He’s now touched the ball at least 14 times in each of the last four games and is the only one you can play with confidence. White saw more snaps due to the Burkhead fumble, but he’s still shockingly low from where he was at the start of the season. The Dolphins have allowed four rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks, even though the Bucs didn’t score any in their Week 11 game. Knowing everything, Lewis is an RB2 in all formats who could achieve RB1 numbers if they start to use him in the passing game like they did last week. Burkhead and White are both risky flex options, though we know they come with two touchdown upside.
WRs
Jarvis Landry: He’s now scored in six of the last seven games. In case you didn’t know, Landry hadn’t ever scored more than five touchdowns in an entire 16 game season. In fact, he scored four times in each of the last two seasons. Knowing that regression is coming, he’s still a great play against the Patriots. This is a divisional game where they play each other twice a year, and in their games last year, Landry posted 10/135/0 and 9/76/1 against them. It’s clear that Belichick has never viewed him as the top threat and is willing to let him get his yardage underneath. Knowing there’ll be plenty of time for him to get those yards in this game, he needs to be played as a solid WR2 in standard and a borderline WR1 in PPR formats.
DeVante Parker: The coaching staff stated some concern last week with Parker, saying he wasn’t as driven as he was the start of the season. Well, that didn’t seem to help matters as he finished with a season-low (full games) 26 yards on nine targets against the Bucs who have been bleeding fantasy points to wide receivers. With Matt Moore looking likely to be under center, Parker may fall to No. 3 in the pecking order behind Landry and Stills. On top of that, he’ll match-up with a seemingly rejuvenated Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore on the perimeter. The talent is still there, but there are concerns. He’s got the looks of a risky WR3 this week.
Kenny Stills: Whenever Stills has played with Moore the last two years, the two have done work. In seven games with Moore, he averages 4.6 receptions for 79.3 yards and 1.0 touchdowns, compared to 2.6 receptions for 40.0 yards and 0.4 touchdowns without him. We saw the duo hook up quite a bit last week, so it appears that not much has changed. The matchup is tougher than initially thought, but Stills is on the map as an upside WR4 with Moore under center.
Brandin Cooks: We knew it was coming last week, as everything had been aligning for that huge game against the Raiders. The Patriots might have Chris Hogan back this week, which would slightly lower Cooks’ target ceiling, but he’d been consistent even with Hogan on the field, totaling at least 65 yards in five of the last six games. The Dolphins are one of the bottom-five secondaries in the league and the Patriots have a lot of different options of ways to attack them. Cooks is going to match-up with Xavien Howard quite a bit in this game, a cornerback who runs a 4.6 second 40-yard dash, so Cooks should definitely be involved in the ways to attack them. Consider him a low-end WR1 who comes with a massive ceiling.
Chris Hogan: (Note: It’s no guarantee Hogan returns this week, so pay attention to the rankings) Coming off a multi-week absence is always a warning sign to fantasy owners, as you should typically try to give them a week on the bench before trusting them. That’s not the case with this matchup against the Dolphins, as their implied team total sits over 30 points. The Dolphins have allowed 12 passing touchdowns over their last five games and Hogan still leads the team in touchdowns with five, even though he’s played just eight games. He comes with some additional risk, but he’s still in the WR2 conversation.
Danny Amendola: Coming off a top-10 performance in Week 11, Amendola will move back down the pecking order if Hogan returns. His matchup with Bobby McCain isn’t a bad one, though it may be the least appetizing of the wide receivers. Still, the Patriots dictate how things go and if they want to make Amendola the focal point, McCain isn’t good enough to stop that. If Hogan plays, Amendola is just a low-end WR4. If Hogan misses another week, Amendola should be considered as a borderline WR3 with upside.
TEs
Julius Thomas: The Dolphins have made it a point to try and get Thomas involved over the last month or so, and while it’s been up and down, this is a matchup they may be able to exploit. The Patriots had quietly been one of the weaker teams against tight ends, though they have stepped up over the last four weeks. Through six games, they had allowed six top-12 performances, but they’ve held Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, and Jared Cook outside of the top-20 over the last four weeks. Thomas can get overlooked by most coaching staffs because there are far better receiving options on the Dolphins, but he’s on my TE2 radar this week as someone who should have a decent shot to score.
Rob Gronkowski: What in the world happened last week? I mean, we can’t really blame a team that dominated throughout, but three targets for Gronkowski? He’s one of the better buy-lows in fantasy if your league has no trade deadline. Over the last three weeks, the Dolphins have allowed O.J. Howard to finish as the TE5, Ed Dickson as the TE9, and Jared Cook as the TE1. This goes back to the Patriots and how they choose to attack, but Gronkowski has a 100-yard two touchdown game in his range of possibilities.
