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2017 MLB Winter Meetings Recap (Fantasy Baseball)

2017 MLB Winter Meetings Recap (Fantasy Baseball)

MLB’s annual winter meetings stoked the hot stove with a myriad of trades and free-agent signings to commence the offseason.

After receiving an answer-followed by another twist-to the Shohei Ohtani saga, yet another Miami Marlins fire sale dominated the headlines in Orlando, Florida. While the premier free agents are still testing the open market, a bevy of high-quality middle relievers made a speedier decision. As for whether any of them now have a window to the ninth, they remain at the mercy of the class’ top-tier stoppers.

With so much news to digest, here’s a one-stop breakdown of the latest transactions and their fantasy ramifications.

Angels Win Shohei Ohtani Sweepstakes
Shohei Ohtani ended months of intrigue by joining the Los Angeles Angels. While they plan on fully utilizing his unique skillset, general manager Billy Eppler said the Japanese phenom won’t play the outfield in 2018. That could mean he’s limited to DH eligibility, assuming he can be employed as a hitter at all.

Now that Ohtani signed, one mystery begets another for fantasy participants. How will leagues treat the two-way star? According to Awful Announcing, Yahoo will create two separate players for “hitter Ohtani” and “pitcher Ohtani.” Blocked by Albert Pujols at DH, he probably won’t garner enough plate appearances to hold his weight as a hitter in mixed leagues. Yet drafters will aggressively pursue the pitcher who posted a 2.52 ERA and 10.3 K/9 in Japan with a triple-digit heater.

A week after his signing, Ohtani is getting taken ahead of James Paxton, Alex Wood, and Jake Arrieta as the No. 20 starting pitcher on Fantrax. His stock appeared poised to keep increasing; NFBC founder Greg Ambrosius said Ohtani went in the top 50 of three drafts (only eligible as a pitcher) after signing. This came before Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported that a physical revealed a first-degree sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament, the least severe type of strain that should not impede his readiness for Opening Day. Perhaps that will scare drafters lunging into the top 50. Don’t go overboard chasing the alluring unknown.

Kinsler Also Going to Anaheim
The Angels continued a busy offseason by acquiring Ian Kinsler from the Detroit Tigers. While the 35-year-old hit a career-low .236 in 2017, he offered double-digit stolen bases (14) for the 12th straight season with 22 home runs and 90 runs scored. Perhaps his career .342 on-base percentage will net him an advantageous lineup spot ahead of Mike Trout and Justin Upton, which would give the second baseman a chance to procure his seventh 100-run campaign. Brandishing a 218.8 ADP on Fantrax, he presents a solid middle-infield value despite a probable power dip caused by leaving Comerica Park. Having logged over 600 plate appearances in each of the past seven years, Kinsler is a sturdy compiler who should at least bring his batting average back north of .250.

Yankees Land Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins Bring Back Starlin Castro
Another bombshell quickly followed the Ohtani news when the Marlins sent NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton to the Bronx Bombers. His moonshot power translates anywhere, but moving from Marlins Stadium to Yankee Stadium won’t hurt. Neither can joining Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez in a lineup that ranked first in home runs and second in runs scored and wRC+ last season. Another 50 home runs is certainly doable-Steamer projects 55-if he stays healthy, so the trade cements his standing as a late first-round pick in standard mixed leagues. New York bias could vault his ADP higher than No. 10 by spring.

Starlin Castro conversely takes a hit by leaving Yankee Stadium, where he hit .315/.346/.511 with 25 home runs during his two seasons in pinstripes. He went deep just six times on the road in each campaign, which is more in line with the player who never exceeded 14 home runs in six seasons with the Chicago Cubs. There’s a chance Miami flips him to shed more payroll.

Mariners Acquire Dee Gordon to Play CF
Before acquiring Castro, the Marlins shipped Dee Gordon to the Seattle Mariners, who already have Robinson Cano and Jean Segura patrolling the middle infield. It appears the second baseman will move to center field, a position mostly handled by Jarrod Dyson (now a free agent) in 2017.

With power rising and speed plummeting, gamers opposed to spending a premium on stolen-base specialists should reconsider. Gordon may not hit .308 with 114 runs again, but pairing his career .293 average with 90-100 runs and another 60 steals-he has averaged 63 per 162 games over his career-would make him worth a third-round selection. The three-category star finished 2017 sixth on ESPN’s player rater.

Marlins Move Marcell Ozuna to Cardinals (Who Trade Stephen Piscotty to A’s)
Derek Jeter and Co. continued to dismantle Miami’s lineup by trading Marcell Ozuna to the St. Louis Cardinals in a package led by flame-throwing pitching prospect Sandy Alcantara. Moving from one pitcher’s park to another won’t considerably alter the outfielder’s value. Yet he was likely to regress either way, as his Statcast data calculated a .359 expected wOBA as opposed to his actual .397 rate. ESPN’s Home Run Tracker identified 11 “just enough” home runs, so draft him hoping for a .290/30/100 campaign rather than 2017’s .312/37/124 returns. The Cardinals subsequently sent Stephen Piscotty to the A’s, where he becomes an intriguing bounce-back candidate. Since they still have an outfield of Ozuna, Dexter Fowler, and Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk and Harrison Bader are unlikely to receive much playing time if they stay put. The Marlins can sure use one of those guys now.

Tyler Chatwood Fleas Coors Field for Wrigley
The Cubs gave Tyler Chatwood a three-year, $38 million deal in hopes of his 3.31 career ERA away from Coors Field translating to full-time success. They saw a breakout candidate who needed a change of scenery, but paid an inflated sticker price that erased most room for profit. Given the buzz before he signed with a big-market club, drafters will likely have to make the same sacrifice.

In addition to his road success, Chatwood wields a stellar 54.7 ground-ball percentage and a spin rate that had MLB.com’s Mike Petriello among those comparing him to Charlie Morton. He also, however, owns a middling 1.34 WHIP and a putrid 5.5 K-BB percentage in 315.1 career road frames. The two-time Tommy John surgery recipient has also never pitched 160 or more innings in a season. The Cubs will enjoy his subdued progress more than fantasy managers, who can slide him into the top-100 SPs, but not any higher than 75. He’s more appealing in deeper leagues.

Reliever Roundup

A deep relief-pitching market sorted itself out quickly. Several of the traded and signed players have past closer experience and/or the skills to feasibly assume a ninth-inning role.

All the dominoes haven’t fallen yet. Wade Davis, Greg Holland, and Addison Reed are still available. The Cardinals and Cubs are especially in play to sign one to close. If the Cubs don’t make any other moves, Brandon Morrow should be the front-runner to receive save opportunities over Steve Cishek. He found resounding success in the Dodgers’ bullpen, where he posted a 2.06 ERA and 1.55 FIP in 43.2 regular-season innings. The Dodgers then used him in 14 of their 15 playoff games, and the 33-year-old already has a lengthy injury history. Attaching saves to his second-half dominance would make Morrow a top-15 option despite health concerns.

Hector Neris posted a 3.01 ERA in his first season as the Philadelphia Phillies’ closer, but a 3.71 FIP does not give him a comfortable grasp on the role. While Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter both performed better in 2017, the Phillies used the former as a setup man before dealing him to Colorado. Those signings are likely more relevant in leagues factoring in holds, but both relievers give Neris a much shorter leash. That should drop him a couple of spots once the dust settles.

Despite signing Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw, the Rockies are still trying to retain Holland. If a reunion falls through, Jake McGee would likely reclaim the ninth-inning gig he held for part of 2016. He registered a 3.61 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 57.1 innings, allowing eight runs in 16 frames upon returning from the disabled list in August.

Archie Bradley could close for the Diamondbacks, but he also may stay in a more flexible high-leverage role or go back to the rotation. After accruing 40 strikeouts in 29.1 innings, Brad Boxberger could replace Fernando Rodney if Arizona is smitten with his 41 saves from 2015.

Ten years from now, someone is going to sign a 50-year-old Rodney to close. He found the perfect opportunity to boost his 300 career saves by signing with the Twins. Trevor Hildenberger should blossom into a popular speculative choice, but the veteran likely has the inside track over ninth-inning duties. Although he’s good for strikeouts, erratic control and maddening inconsistency will lead to a few disastrous outings blowing up his ERA and WHIP.

Minor Moves

  • Detroit found a short-term rotation occupant in Mike Fiers, who served up a 5.22 ERA and 32 home runs in 153.1 innings. He caught fire with a 2.59 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in June and July, but spoiled his resurgence by yielding 45 runs in 41.2 subsequent frames. The Tigers just wanted a cheap innings-eater with decent upside. AL-only gamers could meet the same objective for little cost.
  • Aledmys Diaz will get a second chance in Toronto after the Cardinals traded him for prospect J.B. Woodman. It seems like just last year he was hitting .300/.369/.510 with 17 home runs in his first 111 MLB games. That’s because it was. He fell off the map with a .259/.290/.392 slash line in 2017 and watched Paul De Jong take his place. Now he needs an injury to the oft-injured Troy Tulowitzki or Devon Travis to get another starting nod.
  • Following a late-season resurgence in Arizona, Chris Iannetta will go back to where he started his career. Signing with the Rockies was the only way to improve on his current situation from a fantasy perspective. Coors Field and a .929 second-half OPS may make the 34-year-old catcher a trendy choice, especially for DFS gamers whenever an opposing lefty visits Colorado. He’ll likely remain in a timeshare due to his steep splits and limited defense, so save him for NL-only formats and two-catcher mixed leagues.
  • Chase Headley will also return to a former employer, as the Yankees sent him back to the San Diego Padres for Jabari Blash. The third baseman enjoyed his career year with the Padres in 2012, but since hasn’t reached a .275 average or 15 homers. Yet it appears they were more interesting in attaining pitcher Bryan Mitchell and will look to repackage Headley. Depending on his final destination, he’s best saved for only leagues and deeper mixed-league players who can use a boring, but steady regular.
  • In addition to attaining Headley, San Diego sent Ryan Schimpf to the Rays for minor league infielder Deion Tansel. While the second baseman has belted 34 home runs in 527 career big league plate appearances, it has come at the cost of a .195 batting average and 33.2 strikeout percentage. There’s no need to chase such drastic all-or-nothing power in standard leagues after 117 players posted at least 20 homers in 2017. He’s more of an AL-only flier.
  • The Cubs inked Drew Smyly to a two-year deal, but he will miss all of 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Twins made the same forward-thinking gamble on Michael Pineda.

Looking Ahead

  • The Orioles are getting closer to trading superstar Manny Machado, who could get moved sooner than later. Although they already made major splashes, the Cardinals and Yankees still wield the best blend of need and available young talent to pounce again. No matter where he goes, the 25-year-old should re-emerge as a top 15 player by repairing his .259 batting average. Bonus points if he plays for someone willing to move the Gold Glover back to shortstop.
  • According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Toronto Blue Jays are “disinclined” to deal Josh Donaldson. Although it’s an illogical move for a franchise that has fallen behind the Yankees and Boston Red Sox, fantasy gamers will appreciate the star third baseman spending at least a chunk of 2018 hitting at the Rogers Centre. He rebounded from a sluggish start to smash 22 home runs in his final 50 games.
  • Could Christian Yelich follow Stanton and Ozuna out of Miami? There’s little financial incentive to pawn off a 26-year-old signed to a team-friendly contract through 2021 (with a 2022 club option), so he may be stuck in a gutted lineup. Don’t expect him to score another 100 runs if that’s the case.
  • SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo said the New York Mets and Cleveland Indians have had “serious talks” about Jason Kipnis. A hamstring injury limited him to 90 games in 2017, during which he hit .232 and stole six bases in eight tries. No NL team attempted fewer stolen bases than the Mets, but better health could at least lead him to a 15-10 campaign with a passable batting average and solid counting numbers.
  • Although the Pittsburgh Pirates stayed quiet during the winter meetings, they could still wipe the slate clean by trading Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole and/or Josh Harrison. Last week, general manager Neal Huntington was evasive about keeping McCutchen beyond his current contract, which expires next year. If not now, the lifelong Pirate will probably get dealt during the season.
  • J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Yu Darvish, and Jake Arrieta are among the many top free agents still available.

Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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