As a Browns fan and Sashi Brown truther, yesterday was not a good day. While Sashi and his analytics-driven approach got a lot of things right, their failure at quarterback ultimately proved fatal. In consecutive drafts the Browns chose to trade down rather than take Carson Wentz (MVP frontrunner) or Deshaun Watson (shoe-in for rookie of the year, had he stayed healthy). In hindsight, they obviously should’ve drafted either.
Of course, no one should judge a decision through hindsight. Rather, decisions should be judged based on the information that was known at the time the decision was made. And I don’t think either trade down was a bad decision given what we knew about Wentz and Watson coming out of college. Clearly, things didn’t work out for the Browns, but you can’t control the results. Your job is just to make good decisions.
I bring all of this up as a coping mechanism now that 1-27 Hue Jackson is firmly in control of my favorite team because Week 14, the first round of the playoffs, is an incredibly difficult one for quarterback decisions. We have several stars in bad matchups. We have a bunch of unreliable quarterbacks in good matchups. And we have the added pressure that single-elimination fantasy football brings. All we can do is take the information available to us today and try to make good decisions.
As a reminder, this isn’t a pure start/sit column-weird stuff happens every week, so there are a few far-fetched but plausible QB1 predictions sprinkled in.
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1) Tom Brady (NE): @ Miami
Brady was a major disappointment in Week 13, with just 8.3 fantasy points in a plush matchup in Buffalo. He played great, of course, but Rex Burkhead soaked up all the touchdowns.
He’ll have a chance to redeem himself on Monday against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. There’s not much analysis to provide here: against the Dolphins, with the highest implied team total of the week, it’s all systems go for Brady.
2) Carson Wentz (PHI): @ Los Angeles Rams
Carson Wentz fell outside the QB1 ranks for the first time since Week 4, but just barely. In a “bad” game for Wentz, he still threw for 348 yards and managed 16.9 fantasy points.
I’m not overly concerned for Week 14. The Eagles were able to move the ball on Sunday Night Football, they just took a few bad bounces and stalled out drives they usually finish. On the road against the Rams looks like a difficult matchup — they’re allowing just 12.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, third fewest in the league — but they’ve also had an extremely easy quarterback schedule thus far. My only real concern is that the Eagles focus their attack on the ground, where the Rams have been especially vulnerable.
3) Philip Rivers (LAC): vs. Washington
Rivers continued to roll on Sunday, with his second straight game completing over 70% of his passes and throwing for over 300 yards. At home against Washington is another favorable spot for Rivers. The Redskins defense has trailed off in the 2nd half, allowing 17.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks since Week 7, including four 20+point games. The Chargers are home favorites with the 4th highest implied total of the week. All signs point to Rivers notching his 9th QB1 finish of the season.
4) Matthew Stafford (DET): @ Tampa Bay
Remember when Matthew Stafford was injury prone? Now he picks up a new ailment every week and keeps on ticking. Last week it was an injury to his throwing hand, but it appears he’ll be good to go on Sunday.
Assuming he plays, it’s a great matchup. Tampa Bay hasn’t allowed a QB1 week since Week 9, but they still rank 31st in pass defense per Football Outsiders. The key to their fantasy success has been limiting touchdowns. They’ve allowed one or fewer passing touchdowns in five straight games. That streak ends this week. Detroit ranks 6th in passing touchdowns this season and Stafford has multiple scores in eight of 12 games. As one of the most sack-prone offenses in the league, the Lions should also benefit from Tampa’s league-worst pass rush.
Stafford has been quiet lately, but that’s mostly because he’s faced two of the top pass defenses in the league (Minnesota and Baltimore). Before that, Stafford had a streak of five consecutive QB1 performances. I think he delivers big again this weekend.
5) Alex Smith (KC): vs. Oakland
Smith rediscovered his form in New York (erm, New Jersey), torching the Jets for 366 yards and four touchdowns. He finished as the top fantasy quarterback last week and could double against the Raiders.
Oakland is the worst pass defense in the league by pretty much any measure. Smith has already posted a big fantasy week (25.7 points) against them this season. He should probably be higher, but Smith’s recent body of work plus the repeat matchup (which tends to favor the defense) warrant caution.
6) Drew Brees (NO): @ Atlanta
As favorites in the game with the highest over/under of the week (53.5), I was cautiously optimistic Brees could deliver the rare big game.
The only thing that held him back was the Falcons’ offense. They held the ball for nearly 10 more minutes than the Saints, and limited New Orleans to 52 plays. Brees was fantastic when he was on the field (except for that last pass…), but the volume limited him to only 17 fantasy points. Just solid. Again.
7) Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): @ Houston
Jimmy G looked good in his first start, throwing for 293 yards and completing 70% of his passes on the road against a tough Bears defense. The only thing that wasn’t there was touchdowns. Well guess who gives up touchdowns at the highest rate in the league?
The Broncos, actually. But the Texans are 2nd! They’ve also given up the 3rd highest yards per attempt (hello, Marquise Goodwin), the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and as many QB1 performances as any other team. Garoppolo is a top streaming option this week.
9) Jameis Winston (TB): vs. Detroit
Early this season Detroit looked like it had completed a major turnaround of one of 2016’s worst defenses.
Nope.
The Lions are allowing the 7th most points per game and have given up at least 370 total yards in every game since their Week 7 bye. It’s not at all schedule driven, either. In recent weeks they’ve been tagged by Brett Hundley (18 fantasy points), DeShone Kizer (23), Case Keenum (27.3), and Joe Flacco (18.7). Even Trubisky went Mitch-a-Palooza on them for 14.5 points.
This is hardly a lock. Winston has been up and down all year, finishing top 10 among quarterbacks four times and 20th or worse six times. His top target, Mike Evans, will be locked up by stud CB Darius Slay. Still, did you see that list I just rattled off? This matchup is too good to pass up.
10) Case Keenum (MIN): @ Carolina
Is Keenum an every-week starter or a product of an easy stretch in the schedule?
That’s the question entering Week 14. Keenum seems to have established himself as a legit fantasy option, finishing no worse than 13th among quarterbacks since Week 7. Of course, Carolina is by far his toughest matchup since Week 7, when he managed a mere 6.4 fantasy points at home against Baltimore.
Given his recent play and his top-tier weapons, I want to believe this is legit. But I have to admit I’m a little nervous it all comes crashing down this weekend. There’s a reason the coaching staff keeps whispering about Teddy Bridgewater.
10) Derek Carr (OAK): @ Kansas City
Playing without either of his star receivers last week, Carr still put up a respectable 15.4 fantasy points on 287 passing yards and a touchdown. Even if Amari Cooper can’t make it back, this is a great spot for the Raiders’ passing game.
The Chiefs have exactly one defender who can stop the pass, and he’s suspended this week. That’s trouble for a defense that nearly allowed 500 total yards to the Jets last week. Carr has already thrashed this team once (29/52, 417 passing yards, three touchdowns), and while rematches tend to favor the defense, I think the Chiefs are broken beyond repair.
11) Dak Prescott (DAL): @ New York Giants
Prescott broke out of his funk last week. Sort of. He played well, but the Cowboys limited him to just 22 attempts as they were able to nurse a lead all game. The Giants are a prime matchup, but unless the G-Men stay competitive another low volume outing for Dak seems likely. Add in the low over/under (41.5) and you get a solid, but low ceiling QB1 play.
12) Blaine Gabbert (ARI): vs. Tennessee
In Gabbert’s one plus matchup this season (at Houston), he completed 65% of his passes and threw three touchdowns (with two interceptions). Not bad. He wasn’t quite as good in his other two games, but still put up respectable numbers against the Jaguars and Rams (top five pass defenses, per Football Outsiders). All in all, Gabbert’s actually been ok this season.
This week he gets another plus matchup. The Titans rank 25 against the pass per Football Outsiders, and just last week allowed 16.5 fantasy points to Tom Savage. Add in a few rushing yards for Gabbert (he’s averaging just over four rushing attempts per game), and you have a fringe QB1.
13) Russell Wilson (SEA): @ Jacksonville
Usually, I only talk about 12 quarterbacks, but this whole thing is kind of worthless if we don’t touch on Wilson.
As I said at the top, this isn’t a start/sit column. So I’m not saying you should start someone like Gabbert over Wilson. However, if you’ve been riding Wilson all season you should think long and hard about other options.
The Jaguars are that good. They’re allowing a microscopic 8.5 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. For comparison, the dominant Broncos defense that dragged old Peyton Manning to a Super Bowl allowed 12.3 points per game. The 2000 Ravens team that dragged Trent freaking Dilfer to a Super Bowl before the NFL implemented a host of rule changes hamstringing defenses…they allowed 8.8 fantasy points per game.
This is a special defense. Wilson is matchup proof, but the Jaguars are matchup proofer. Tread lightly.
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Scott Cedar is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Scott, check out his archive and follow him @scedar015.