Marmol Strategy Cheat Code (Fantasy Baseball)

The title is not clickbait, there truly is a cheat code in fantasy baseball. I’ve been using it for years, and in each league, my top opponents eventually decided to adopt my strategy in an effort to beat me. You should be able to get a headstart on your competition if you begin this season. Now, this is going to sound absurd, so try to stick with me until I’ve completed my argument. I will have 100% exposure to Josh Hader and Dominic Leone in my leagues. Who? Are you serious? They are two no-named middle relievers (much like Carlos Marmol back in the day) and I’m quite serious. Ok, maybe one of my league members will read this and snipe me just before I complete my master plan. The best way to explain how this works is to just jump right into the numbers then I’ll explain from there. The table below is what it looks like when you execute the strategy:

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As you can see, in auction drafts, I am getting a league-average bullpen and spending a measly four bucks to essentially get Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg (plus 25 saves and minus 10 wins). Who wouldn’t do that if they could actually pull it off? Not only do you have a chance to pull it off, it’s quite easy to accomplish, and yes, you can do this in serpentine draft leagues as well, but rather than spending $19 or $23, it is more like this:

League Average: 12 round, 17th round, 22nd round
Yours: 16th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th

Oh yeah, there is this catch where you have to use eight of your precious roster spots. That’s one-third of your entire roster…on middle relievers…this can’t work, right? Think of it this way, would you trade the worst player in your starting lineup and your entire bench for Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg? Of course you would. That is what you are doing here. Yes, you don’t have a bench, but believe me, you won’t need it. You see, when you’ve got two Cy Young contenders basically for free, you can spend your first nine picks on hitters then fill out your rotation with strong ratio starting pitchers who might not reach 180 innings. My guys this year are Lance McCullers, David Price Rich Hill and Mike Clevinger. You can nab those four in the 10th, 11th, 12th and 17th rounds. Here is where those part-time aces ranked in OPS allowed last year:

• Rich Hill: #12
• David Price #17
• Mike Clevinger: #21
• Lance McCullers: #6 in the first-half when he was healthy

The four combined to strike out 10.2 batters per 9 innings (511 Ks in 450.2 IP). Here is the entire list of qualified pitchers with a higher rate than the entire foursome combined:

• Chris Sale
• Robbie Ray
• Max Scherzer
• Corey Kluber
• Chris Archer
• Luis Severino
• Jacob DeGrom
• Stephen Strasburg
• Clayton Kershaw

That’s it!

You are looking at 8 of the top 10 fantasy baseball pitchers right there. Sure, their cumulative ratios are nowhere close though, right? You’d be wrong again. Robbie Ray and Jacob DeGrom combined to have an ERA just 17 points better and a WHIP just 2 points better. My group of starters, meanwhile, had 2 extra wins and 54 more strikeouts.

This is a round-about way of saying that you can get the same value, if not more, from four specific mid-round starters than two bonafide aces. So now, we have a league-average bullpen, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Robbie Ray and Jacob DeGrom (minus 8 wins and a few ratio points, but plus 25 saves and 54 Ks). No, I’m not fudging the numbers or using a logical fallacy. We do, in fact, get the same exact production with a bunch of mid and late round picks than we would if you spent 4 of your first 5 picks on pitchers.

If you haven’t already been convinced, think of it from another angle. If someone offered you the following trade pre-draft, would you say yes or no?

You trade: 10th round, 11th, 12th, 16th-24th picks
You get: 1st round, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 12th, 17th, 22nd

The best part about all of this is not only will you crush in all pitching categories (except wins, where you will be mediocre), but you will be the only team spending each of your first nine picks on hitters so you are more than likely set to destroy the competition on offense too. Just try not to screw it up by drafting this year’s versions of Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Villar, Starling Marte, Trevor Story and Ryan Braun in the first five rounds.

If you execute this the right way, you should finish top two in ERA, WHIP, SVs, BA, HR, RBI and R, then finish middle of the pack in W, K and SB. That, folks, isn’t only good enough to win your league, but should leave your opponents begging for mercy and inevitably copying your strategy down the road.

So who should you target in drafts?

“Starting Pitchers”
In order to carry this out to the full extent, you’ll need the ability to use eight high-strikeout, low-ratio relievers each day so that you can rack up those 500+ innings from your pen. That means you’ll need two relievers who qualify as starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. Brad Peacock was sensational last year, finishing top-6 in both K/9 and OPS against. The Astros just added Gerrit Cole, however, so Peacock is headed back to the bullpen where he can be used as an extra-long reliever like Andrew Miller, but only more so. He was lights out last year in the pen so the transition back should be a welcome one. Similar to the Astros, the Cubs just signed Yu Darvish to their rotation, which means Mike Montgomery gets the bump. Like Peacock, Montgomery was in the pen before and can be stretched out to throw near 100 innings of relief this year. In his career, he has a 2.29 ERA in 126 bullpen innings. That will do.

Secret Super Closers
There are two of them this year. Archie Bradley of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Dominic Leone of the Cardinals. Both broke out as middle relievers last season and were among the top 10 relievers in the second half, and both are the best relievers on their playoff contending teams, so they should get first raps at the closer job.

The best relievers in baseball
Ok, you can’t get Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel, but behind them are four lights-out relievers who just so happen to be stuck behind less competent closers. Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, David Robertson and my favorite this year, Josh Hader, have put up downright filthy numbers out of the pen. They don’t get the saves right now, but guess who fills in when Aroldis Chapman gets suspended, Cody Allen injured or Corey Knebel slips up for a week? You guessed it, these guys! For what it’s worth, Josh Hader may just be the next Kimbrel before long. In his 47 inning rookie debut, he was better than Aroldis, Allen, Edwin Diaz and Wade Davis in every fantasy stat except saves.

Other Names worth considering
I can’t fit them all into my pen, but if someone gets cute and steals your player, it helps to have backups. Alex Reyes is starting pitcher eligible, but figures to keep an innings limit out of the bullpen this year. He won’t return from injury until May, but when he does, he’s got perennial Cy Young contender type of stuff and could very well end up the best closer in baseball someday if he sticks in the pen long term. C.J. Edwards, Keone Kela and Tommy Kahnle are high-strikeout, low-ratio guys with the type of stuff to suggest we may not have even seen the best from them yet. I’d frankly be surprised if Edwards and Kela didn’t end up as their team’s closers by the end of the season, if not by the end of Spring Training.

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