If you haven’t competed in a fantasy league with an auction draft, I’ve got to say that you have been missing out. It is the best day of the year (Sorry, Christmas. Sorry, Super Bowl.) and adds a whole new layer of strategy and freedom to your fantasy leagues. If this year isn’t your first rodeo, you know just how challenging these things can be. It is always best to enter with a plan, and today, I’ll show you what I believe to be the ideal auction draft.

In order to build this out, I used Yahoo Fantasy Baseball’s average auction values then rounded each player up. I used their standard roster settings and $260 to build this team then plugged the roster into our Draft Wizard keepers feature to see how it stacked up against a 12-team league. Here is how the team ranked versus the team averages in each stat category through 10 simulated drafts.

• HR: 291 (1st)
• RBI: 993 (1st)
• R: 903 (1st)
• SB: 194 (1st)
• BA: .273 (6th)
• ERA: 3.34 (1st)
• WHIP: 1.19 (2nd)
• W: 69 (8th)
• SV: 126 (2nd)
• K’s: 1,122 (6th)

In a 12-team roto league, that would lead to a score of 101. Typically, the winner is somewhere between 88 and 95, so 101 is scorching earth. In head-to-head leagues, the advantage may be even more extreme seeing that I am among the top 2 teams in 7 of 10 categories. Now, let me show you how to roster looks.

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The Building Blocks

Gary Sanchez (C – NYY): $33
Jose Altuve (2B – HOU): $55
Trea Turner (SS – WAS): $49

Let’s face is, finding a quality player at any of these positions, let alone all three is a significant challenge. In order to execute the perfect draft, you’ve got to land the top three options, who are so far and away above the replacement level player at the position. One team in your league will be starting Tim Anderson, another Cesar Hernandez and one poor soul will use Robinson Chirinos day in and day out. That is a far cry from the replacement level at other offensive positions which consists of Ryan Zimmerman, Jake Lamb and Eric Thames. You can afford to save money at other positions, but this year it makes all the sense in the world to go all out in your auction drafts at catcher, second base and shortstop to acquire each of the best options.

Jose Altuve is a whole two standard deviations ahead of the curve in batting average so you can afford to load up your lineup with the likes of Joey Gallo and Matt Olson, who may each hit 45 homers but would typically wreck your batting average. Altuve’s presence negates that. The same is true for Trea Turner with stolen bases except two-fold. He is stealing 66 bags per 162 games played through his career. You can essentially draft Turner, punt the category for the remainder of the draft and still hold your own in stolen bases.

My 2018 Favorites

Matt Olson (1B/OF – OAK): $3
Tommy Pham (OF – STL): $17
Alex Bregman (3B/SS – HOU): $21

Let’s just start this off by checking out the leaderboard for AB/HR last season.

• Matt Olson 7.9
• Rhys Hoskins 9.4
• J.D. Martinez 9.6
• Giancarlo Stanton 10.1
• Aaron Judge 10.4
• Joey Gallo 11.0
• Mike Trout 12.2
• Cody Bellinger 12.3
• Josh Donaldson 12.6
• All Others > 13

You can call that a fluke, I call him shredding history right open. No player in MLB history had more than 18 homers in fewer than 200 at bats until last year when Olson hit 24. Even if he faces significant regression with a full season, we are still talking about 35 to 45 homers. Add in the fact that his BABIP was actually unlucky last year and you’ve got to love him as perhaps the largest value in fantasy baseball drafts this year. Sign me up for $3. Heck, I’d pay $13 for him and still feel like I found a great value.

Pham played just 128 games last year and received MVP votes. Just think about that for a minute. Believe it or not, he was even better in fantasy, giving owners both power, speed and average. If you pro-rate his shortened season to a full 162 games, we’d be talking about a 30/30 player who batted over .300, drove in 90 runs and scored 120. That isn’t just a quality fantasy player, folks, that is a bonafide first rounder. His batted ball data, Statcast metrics and continuous improvement throughout the season suggest his numbers were no fluke. The only question will be if he can stay healthy for a full year.

Bregman, meanwhile, is like Pham in that he produces speed and power with a quality batting average, but unlike him in that the Astros’ youngster is the former top overall prospect. We all knew his breakout was coming eventually and that’s just what we got in the second-half when he batted .315 with a pro-rated clip of 25 HR, 21 SB, 110 R and 100 RBI. Whether he repeats that rate is to be determined, but I can tell you that his ceiling is even further beyond that. We may be looking at a 2019 first round fantasy pick here.

Cheap Bounceback Candidates

Yoenis Cespedes (OF – NYM): $15
Carlos Gonzalez (OF – FA): $2
Michael Conforto (OF – NYM): $2

Cespedes hasn’t exactly been the epitome of health, but the general public is far too low on him. It’s as though all they see are the counting stats rather than the fact that when he was on the field for half of last season, he may have been the best version of himself we’ve ever seen. He doesn’t carry more injury risk than last season, yet his cost is 25% lower than what it cost fantasy owners last year.

Like Cespedes, Gonzalez was a top 40 fantasy player in the public’s eye this time last year. He, too, dealt with injuries, but Car-Go played through them, struggling in the first-half (.221/.299/.338). He bounced right back to his usual self in the second-half, however, substantially raising his slash lines to .319/.390/.534. Granted, repeating that for a full season will be a challenge, especially if he signs somewhere besides Colorado, but he will almost certainly out-earn his $2 price tag so long as he stays on the field.

The word on Conforto at this point is that he won’t be ready to go until at least May. Perhaps we’ll find out that he will be shut down, like David Dahl last year, for the entire season. Even with that worst case scenario, it costs you just $2 and a roster spot for a handful of weeks. The best case scenario, however, is that we get 30 homers, 75 RBI and a .280 BA from him in just 110 games like last year. At just a couple dollars, that might just be the bargain of the draft, even if it takes up a DL spot for a few months.

Super Utility Glue Guys

Joey Gallo (1B/3B/OF – TEX): $5
Chris Taylor (2B/SS/OF – LAD): $5
Jonathan Villar (2B/OF – MIL): $2

Gallo’s final stat-line last season left much to be desired, but a large reason for that was a putrid first-half where he batted just .194 with 112 Ks in 248 at-bats. He turned it around in a big way after the all-star break, however, raising his batting average 35 points and hitting a homer once in every 10 at-bats. In fact, over those 70 games, he was better than Aaron Judge, who will cost fantasy teams nearly $30 more.

Adding a few of these positionally flexible pieces to your roster proves extremely helpful over the course of a fantasy season, as their presence should enable you to milk an extra 10-20 games out of your roster. Those counting stats add up quickly and could be the difference between a few rotisserie points. Chris Taylor may be the best of this types of player, as he fills both middle infield positions. Last season, he was a top 25 fantasy hitter, knocking 21 homers and stealing 17 bases with a .288 batting average. While he may not sustain that production in 2018, he’d still be a quality fantasy asset even with some regression.

Villar may have been the biggest non-injury bust in fantasy baseball last year. You may be sensing a trend here, as Villar is like many of the other names on this list having put up a terrible first-half. He still finished the season with double-digit homers and 20+ steals, which is a far cry from the 20/60 line he put together in 2016. With that said, it isn’t crazy to think he can cut the difference in half going 15/40 with the .280 batting average he put together after the all-star break and throughout both 2015 and 2016. That, folks, is a top 30 fantasy hitter, and worth far more than just a few bucks.

Marmol Pitching Staff

Lance McCullers (SP – HOU): $13
Rich Hill (SP – LAD): $9
David Price (SP – BOS): $9
Mike Clevinger (SP – CLE): $2

Andrew Miller (RP – CLE): $3
Brad Peacock (SP/RP – HOU): $2
Brandon Morrow (RP – CHC): $4
Archie Bradley (RP – ARI): $3
Greg Holland (RP – FA): $2
Blake Parker (RP – LAA): $2
Keone Kela (RP – TEX): $1

There is a lot going on here, and it may seem as though I am punting every pitching category. That couldn’t be farther from the truth, however. Rather, this is the execution of The Marmol Strategy, which I laid out last week. With five cheap closers, it is not only possible, but entirely probable that this staff will finish 1st or 2nd in ERA, WHIP and saves. The Wins and K’s should end up middle of the pack as well, all at the bargain price of $50 or just 19% of our overall available budget. For more about the Marmol Strategy and why this will actually work, check out everything I have to say about it.

Final Roster

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