First base is loaded again this year with big-time sluggers. Any of the top-11 at the position could conceivably end up as top-20 hitters overall, and there’s no shortage of options available later in drafts to fill your corner infield or utility spot.
Before we get to the tiered rankings, a couple quick notes. First, I’ve ordered players within the tiers based on how I rank them, but if two players are in the same tier, I think they are close enough in value that the difference largely comes down to personal preference. Second, these rankings will only include players that you’re likely to regularly start at first base, so players who are typically eligible at any other position besides outfield are excluded. For instance, it’s fairly clear that you’ll want to use Buster Posey at C, not 1B.
With that fine print out of the way, let’s get to the 2018 first baseman tiers.
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Tier One
One of the biggest fantasy-related stories of the offseason is the new humidor coming to Chase Field, which at least one respected expert believes will reduce home runs hit in the ballpark by 25-50 percent. The humidor has almost universally convinced fantasy writers (myself included) to lower their projections for Goldschmidt, but I still believe he belongs in a tier of his own until we see just how much the humidor affects him.
Goldschmidt has finished as the number one first baseman in 5×5 roto leagues for three straight seasons, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Even in 2016, when he hit just 24 home runs, he made up for it with 32 stolen bases — and still finished as the top first baseman and a top-10 player overall. In each of those three seasons, Goldschmidt hit at least .297, scored at least 103 runs, produced at least 95 RBIs, and stole at least 18 bases. The stolen bases, in particular, distinguish him from the other top first basemen, and it’s possible he runs more in 2018 if he hits fewer home runs, just as he did in 2016. He belongs in a tier of his own until proven otherwise.
Tier Two
If the humidor does take a heavy toll on Goldschmidt’s fantasy production, Votto and Freeman are the most likely first basemen to surpass him.
Votto may not be the most exciting player selected in the early rounds of fantasy drafts, but he is highly unlikely to disappoint those who take him. He has finished as the runner-up to Goldschmidt in 5×5 roto leagues in each of the last two seasons, and his fantastic walk rate pushed him ahead of Goldy in CBS points leagues last year (he deserves to join Goldschmidt in the top tier in those formats). Votto has been a model of consistency and he’s one of the safest picks in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts.
Freeman has yet to deliver a top-three finish at the position in 5×5 roto leagues, but this could finally be the year. He hit .348 with 16 home runs over the first 43 games of the 2017 season before fracturing his wrist in May. He wasn’t quite as good when he returned in July, hitting .283 with 12 HRs over his final 74 games, but the fast start hinted at the elite production he could achieve over a full season. It remains to be seen just how good he can be, but his combination of a safe floor and untapped ceiling make him a clear top-three option at first base.
Tier Three
There are still plenty of excellent sluggers available in this tier of first basemen — you won’t be able to find hitters of this caliber in the third tier at most other positions.
Bellinger smacked 39 home runs in his first 132 games as a Major Leaguer, and chipped in 10 stolen bases too, so it wouldn’t exactly be shocking if he finished as the top first baseman in 2018. He is probably the best pure power option at the position. That said, his high strikeout rate makes it quite unlikely that he will come close to the elite batting averages of Goldschmidt, Votto, and Freeman, and there is some risk that he could have an adjustment period in his second season as pitchers figure out how to pitch to him.
Rizzo and Abreu don’t have the same amount of upside as the names above them in the rankings, but they are both safe choices with very nice floors. Abreu has finished as a top-six first baseman in 5×5 roto leagues in three of the last four seasons, and Rizzo has done so in four straight seasons. They should both produce around 30 HRs and 100 RBIs, with Abreu providing more batting average and Rizzo providing some stolen bases. Rizzo is typically a little overrated in roto leagues, but he deserves a bit of a bump in points leagues and leagues where he has second base eligibility.
Hoskins looked a lot like Bellinger in his Big League debut, albeit in less than half as many games. Like Bellinger, Hoskins is projected to hit around .260-.270 with 35-40 home runs and 100+ RBIs. Bellinger should have a slight edge in stolen bases, but otherwise it is difficult to differentiate between the two. The potential for a sophomore slump exists for both players, but Hoskins had a better walk and strikeout rate than Bellinger in both the Majors and minors, so Hoskins may actually be the slightly safer option even though he’s a little less experienced.
Encarnacion is entering his age-35 season, but he can still rake. He got off to an awful start last April, and had another swoon in July, but he produced 17 home runs and 47 RBIs over the final two months to finish as a top-30 hitter in 5×5 roto leagues for the sixth straight season. Encarnacion rarely runs and he won’t be an asset in batting average, but he remains one of the most reliable sources of power in the game.
Tier Four
This is the last tier of first basemen that I’d want as my starter in a 12-team mixed league.
I touched on Hosmer a bit in my recent piece on underrated “off brand” options who can give you similar production to more highly sought-after players. The move to pitcher-friendly Petco Park will do him no favors, but his prior home park was no hitter paradise either, and we’re talking about a guy who has finished as a top-25 hitter in 5×5 roto leagues in two of the last three seasons. Last year, he was equal in value to Rizzo in those formats (but not in points leagues). Hosmer doesn’t stand out in any individual category, which may explain why he is underappreciated in fantasy drafts. But he has demonstrated 25-HR power the last couple seasons to go along with a solid batting average and a handful of steals at a position where that is fairly uncommon.
Cabrera had the worst season of his career in 2017, but a lot of that was due to a career-low .292 BABIP that should rebound substantially. He has failed to top 20 home runs in two of the last three seasons, but both of those seasons were injury-shortened, and he smacked 38 homers in the season in between. Cabrera finished as the third-best first baseman in 5×5 leagues in 2016, and outside the top-30 at the position in 2017, so there is a wide range of possible outcomes here for 2018. He’s riskier that the names above him, but still has the upside to rejoin the upper echelon at the position.
Myers would have ranked fifth in 5×5 value at first base in 2016, had he been 1B-eligible — trailing only Goldschmidt, Votto, Cabrera, and Freeman. Last year, he would have been the 11th-best first baseman, despite producing a 30-20 season, mostly because of his paltry run and RBI totals. There is some risk of that happening again, but the Padres’ lineup should be better this year and his run production numbers probably would have gone up a bit anyway. Myers will still likely be well below the higher-ranked first basemen in batting average, runs, and RBIs, but only Goldschmidt can approach his combination of power and speed.
Tier Five
Now we get to the players with some legit upside — but also some obvious warts.
Desmond had a lost year in his first season in Colorado, missing almost half the season with hand and calf injuries and hitting the ball on the ground far too often when he was playing. But like Myers, Desmond is just one year removed from a season that would have ranked in the top-five among first baseman in 5×5 roto leagues, had he been 1B-eligible at the time. Desmond has put up four 20 HR-20 SB seasons in the last six years, and will now get another chance to produce in the best offensive ballpark in baseball, which means he has the potential for a .280-20-20 season with good counting stats.
Bruce is coming off back-to-back seasons where he’s hit at least .250 with 33+ home runs and 99+ RBIs. He no longer contributes much in terms of stolen bases, but another .250-30-100 season is certainly plausible, which would likely make him a top-12 first baseman in standard roto leagues.
Olson and Gallo both have massive power potential, but they won’t do you any favors in batting average. Gallo has legitimate 50-HR potential and the advantage of chipping in a handful of steals, but his strikeout rate is so high that he is unlikely to hit above .230 and could be closer to the Mendoza line. Olson may not quite match Gallo’s combined homers and steals, but his strikeout rate is more manageable than Gallo’s, so his batting average should be easier to withstand. The usefulness of both players partially comes down to roster construction, but in terms of 5×5 value, Gallo finished 11th at first base in 2017, which gives you some sense of where both he and Olson could end up in 2018.
Smoak and Zimmerman are both coming off fantastic seasons where they finished in the top-eight first basemen in 5×5 roto leagues, but a bit of caution is advised with each. Smoak exploded for 38 home runs in 2017, joining the long line of sluggers (Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson) who have experienced a power breakthrough while playing in Toronto. He also managed to cut down his strikeout rate considerably, which allowed him to post a solid .270 batting average. He’s probably due for a bit of regression in both home runs and batting average, but a .260-30 season in entirely within reach.
Zimmerman has had a long, productive career, and will hit in the middle of an excellent lineup. But some skepticism is required when a 32-year-old player establishes a new career-high in home runs, hits above .300 for just the second time in 12 seasons, and plays in 144 games after averaging just 90 over the previous three seasons. He also slowed down considerably in the second half of the season, particularly in the batting average department.
Tier Six
- Jose Martinez
- Hanley Ramirez
- Josh Bell
- Carlos Santana
- Greg Bird
- Ryan McMahon
- Logan Morrison
- Justin Bour
There’s a decent mix of upside plays and solid veterans available in this tier to fill a corner infield of utility slot — or just stash on your bench.
Jose Martinez will have to fight for at-bats on a crowded Cardinals roster, but he proved last year that he can be very productive in fantasy leagues if given regular playing time. Martinez is a late-bloomer who changed his approach last season to hit the ball in the air more frequently, and the result was a half season of at-bats that would translate to a .309-94-28-92-8 line over 614 plate appearances. He may not be quite that good, but the upside is plain to see and he’s well worth stashing to find out.
Ramirez is never a great bet to stay healthy, but he can still be quite productive when active, particularly while hitting in the middle of a loaded Red Sox lineup. His numbers have been all over the map the last few years, but the upside is his 2016 season, when he hit .286 with 30 homers, 111 RBIs, and nine steals, and ended up being a top-30 hitter in 5×5 leagues. The downside is that he’s hurt and you drop him by May 1, but at least the draft day cost is minimal.
Bell is coming off a 26-HR season that left him just outside the top-12 first baseman in 5×5 leagues. He doesn’t run much, and doesn’t profile as a 30+ HR hitter (at least yet), so his upside for 2018 may be somewhat limited. Still, he could easily show some more modest growth in his age-25 season, particularly in batting average, where is .278 BABIP from 2017 should rise significantly.
Santana is a player who is much more valuable in points and OBP leagues than he is in standard 5×5 roto leagues. For instance, last year he ranked seventh in CBS points leagues but just 12th in standard roto leagues. He’ll be worth starting in any format if he can match the 34 home runs he put up in 2016, but 25-30 HRs is a more reasonable expectation, which doesn’t make him a must-start option in roto when it comes alongside a mediocre batting average and a handful of steals. Perhaps he should be ranked a few spots higher if you want to emphasize floor, but I prefer to target players with more upside at this point of drafts in 10- and 12-team leagues.
Bird and McMahon are exciting upside picks who make sense to stash in leagues with a reasonable number of bench spots. It’s easy to forget that Bird was a more-heralded Yankees prospect than Aaron Judge at this time last year, and many of the projection systems expect his numbers to look a lot like Santana’s if given everyday at-bats in 2018. McMahon is a better bet for across-the-board production than Bird, since he could hit for a solid average and add some steals to the mix. But he may have a tougher time seeing the field everyday, since Desmond should get some starts at first as well.
Morrison is largely a forgotten man in fantasy drafts despite hitting 38 home runs last year, which says a lot about how many power hitters there are in the game today. The problem with Morrison is that he won’t help you in batting average or stolen bases, so he needs strong run and RBI totals to accompany his home runs in order to be a startable option in fantasy leagues (particularly roto leagues). That didn’t happen last year, but perhaps it will in 2018 with the support of a solid-and-improving Twins lineup.
Bour put up 25 home runs and 83 RBIs with a .289 average in just 108 games last season, which hints at his potential. But neither his BABIP nor his HR/FB ratio appear to be sustainable, so some regression is likely to occur. Add in the fact that the Marlins gutted their roster this offseason, and further reductions to Bour’s counting stat pace are probably in store. A .270-25-80 season is conceivable, but that could be close to the ceiling for Bour.
Tier Seven
This is already a lengthy article, so I’ll keep it short and sweet for this tier. There are some names here I’ve liked a lot in the past, but these guys all fit more in the wait-and-see category unless you play in a deep (15+ teams) league.
Alonso and Thames both showed flashes last year, but they need to prove they can do it again — and perhaps even show some additional growth. They could make for smart waiver wire pickups if they start out hot.
Pujols, Morales, and Davis have all been elite performers in the past, but it remains to be seen whether any of them can regain their past form. Of the three, Davis seems like the best bet to at least do a decent impression of Gallo and Olson.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
