Tiered positional rankings have been around forever as a fantasy draft strategy, but it remains a simple and effective way to decide when you should pounce on a player at a given position, and when you might be able to hold off until later. Today, let’s check out this year’s crop of outfielders. Note that for the purpose of this exercise, we’ll be listing players who are only outfielder eligible, as players with multi-positional eligibility tend to get drafted for other positions.
Top Shelf
Okay, technically Mike Trout probably deserves a tier of his own, but for simplicity’s sake, we’ll group him with the rest of this year’s first-rounders. He’s a consensus top-two pick alongside second baseman Jose Altuve, and will go first overall in most drafts.
However, after Trout you can argue for any of these other guys as the second outfielder off the board. Despite having a “down” year in 2017, Mookie Betts was pretty darn good anyway, and if he returns closer to his career batting average (.292), his floor is about as safe as they come as a five-category star. Meanwhile, Charlie Blackmon is coming off a career year, and while he may not match 37 dingers again, and the stolen bases aren’t what they used to be, you have to feel pretty safe grabbing a hitter of his caliber with the Coors Field bump.
On the other hand, if pure upside is your thing, then Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper might be more your style. Stanton’s power ceiling is obvious, and the move to Yankee Stadium can only help, but it’s worth remembering that 2017 marked just the third time in eight major league seasons that he’s exceeded 123 games. Still, with a second straight healthy season, we could be in store for another ridiculous final stat line. Similarly, we keep waiting for Harper to mimic his monster 2015 campaign, and he very well may have gotten there last year if not for a fluke knee injury. Inconsistency and injuries have prevented Harper from living up to the absurd expectations put upon him, but he’s still just 25, and we’ve seen what he can do when everything goes right.
The Next Best Thing
If he can stay on the field as well, J.D. Martinez is capable of hanging with our friends from the first tier, but at a second-round price. Not only did Martinez hit 45 home runs last year, but he’s a career .285 hitter. He could end up being a big-time value when it’s all said and done.
We know the power is going to be there for Aaron Judge, but what about the batting average? With a 30.7% strikeout rate, don’t expect another season hitting .284. That said, just because everyone is hitting home runs these days doesn’t mean you don’t need to pay attention to power — it means you need more of it. Judge has you covered.
George Springer doesn’t have the home run ceiling of Martinez or Judge, but he seems to get a little better every year, chopping down the strikeout rate last season (17.6%), while improving his hard-hit rate (36.7%). Given his poor success rate stealing bases, he’ll probably fall short of double-digits in that department, but overall Springer is a rock solid investment, and still has potential for his best season yet at age 28.
All That Upside
- Christian Yelich
- Andrew Benintendi
- Marcell Ozuna
- Justin Upton
- Starling Marte
- Byron Buxton
- Tommy Pham
- A.J. Pollock
- Khris Davis
- Billy Hamilton
- Lorenzo Cain
This group presents a hodge-podge of dual threats, sluggers, and speed demons, and your personal favorites may vary, but what they all have in common is the potential to post big numbers in 2018.
Christian Yelich arguably deserves a seat at the table with the previous trio, but his 50 overall ADP lags so far behind them that you can probably afford to wait until they’re off the board before targeting him. That said, don’t be afraid to jump in a little early for Yelich. The move to Miller Park could do wonders for his power, particularly if he can nudge that 55.4% ground-ball rate down, and he joins a ballclub that’s not afraid to run on the base paths. There’s real 25/25 potential here, but even with more modest improvements over last season, you’re still getting at worst a Mookie Betts-lite.
Following Yelich, Andrew Benintendi fits a similar mold as another safe five-category contributor. The funny thing is despite getting all sorts of hype last year, he’s almost turned into a “boring” pick in 2018. He may not excel at any one category, but don’t lose sight of the fact he’s just 23, and is coming off a 20/20 campaign.
Khris Davis and Billy Hamilton are unique specialists of sorts, and whether or not you consider them is more contingent on your early draft picks. You know you’re getting the power from Davis, but at the cost of a low batting average. The polarizing Hamilton is mostly a one-trick pony, except he can nearly single-handedly win you a category that’s getting harder to fill every year. Did you pick Giancarlo Stanton and J.D. Martinez in the first two rounds? Maybe that’s a good team to snag Hamilton. Rankings and tiers are a great guideline, but they don’t have to be carved in stone. Roster construction is just as important to consider.
This tier is littered with speedsters with varying levels of risk, but Yelich’s teammate Lorenzo Cain is shaping up as a nice value at an ADP of 87, despite coming off an excellent all-around 2017 season. He’ll reap the same benefits as Yelich in his new environs, and while he doesn’t have the same home run ceiling, he can get you double-digits. In three of the past four seasons, he’s hit .300 and stolen 26 or more bases.
Choose Your Own Adventure
- Ronald Acuna
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Andrew McCutchen
- Yasiel Puig
- Domingo Santana
- Ryan Braun
- Eddie Rosario
- Ender Inciarte
- Manny Margot
- Gregory Polanco
- Adam Eaton
- Kevin Kiermaier
- Adam Jones
- Nomar Mazara
- Jay Bruce
- Kyle Schwarber
- Adam Duvall
- Brett Gardner
- Steven Souza Jr.
- Delino DeShields
- Bradley Zimmer
There’s plenty of intrigue to be found in this grouping, but here’s where we start to encounter more question marks, whether they’re players coming off injury-shortened seasons, young up-and-comers with short track records, or veterans on the decline with capped ceilings. Much like what we said regarding Khris Davis and Billy Hamilton, this tier begins to be less about straight rankings, and more about your own team’s categorical needs and how much risk you’re willing to take on. Do you need power or speed? Can you afford to take on another low batting average? Do you make the safe play, or take a chance on the bounce-back candidate or next big breakout?
Of course, Ronald Acuna, who is generally considered the top overall prospect in baseball, is the shiny new toy here, and even though he’s not expected to start the season in the big leagues, chances are you’ll need to pay a hefty draft day price to acquire him. Between the pedigree, hype, and a strong Spring Training, he will crack the top 100 picks in many a draft. It’s a sizable leap of faith over someone with nary a single major league at-bat to his name yet, but the truth is this tier is littered with risks, and the potential reward could be a tantalizing 20/30 combo. Even so, that’s a best-case scenario, and you’re probably better off waiting until some of these other names are crossed off the list before committing.
If you’re hurting on steals at this juncture, don’t sleep on Delino DeShields and Bradley Zimmer for a jolt. According to Statcast, they were both top-six in sprint speed last season. Giddy up.
Searching for Diamonds in the Rough
- Michael Conforto
- Avisail Garcia
- Odubel Herrera
- Mitch Haniger
- Aaron Hicks
- Michael Taylor
- Michael Brantley
- Dexter Fowler
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Randal Grichuk
- Mark Trumbo
- Lewis Brinson
This bunch consists of players who very well could find themselves hanging with the previous group when it’s all said and done, but the downside is much more severe due to concerns about age, recent injuries, or inconsistent performance.
Michael Conforto is of particular interest, who is coming off a breakout 2017 in which he slashed .279/.384/.555 over 440 plate appearances with 27 home runs. But the bad news is he’s expected to miss the first month of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September. While the recovery from surgery and missed time is no small matter, taking a chance on Conforto after pick 200 or so could prove a bargain if he regains his 2017 form. The news out of Spring Training has also been quite positive.
Along the same lines, Michael Brantley was a five-category player as recently as 2015. Injuries have sucked the life out of his draft stock, and at this point, it’s possible the old Brantley is never coming back. But he turns just 31 in May, and it won’t cost you much to see if he’s still got it in 2018. It’s worth noting that finding a batting average boost gets more difficult in the latter stages, and that’s one place Brantley excels.
Top prospect Lewis Brinson cracks this tier under the assumption that he opens the season as the Miami Marlins starting center fielder, which is looking promising based on his strong spring, but isn’t official yet. Strikeouts could hold down the batting average, and as we saw with Willie Calhoun on Tuesday, you never know if Brinson could begin 2018 with a stint in the minors. But the chance to scoop up a 15/15 dual-threat doesn’t come often this deep in the draft.
Best of the Rest
- Corey Dickerson
- David Peralta
- Kole Calhoun
- Josh Reddick
- Stephen Piscotty
- Jackie Bradley Jr.
- Aaron Altherr
- Max Kepler
- Scott Schebler
- Mallex Smith
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Carlos Gomez
- Cameron Maybin
- Matt Kemp
- Nick Williams
- Hunter Renfroe
- Jesse Winker
- Kevin Pillar
- Mikie Mahtook
- Dustin Fowler
- Jorge Soler
- Gerardo Parra
- Derek Fisher
- Albert Almora
- Lonnie Chisenhall
- Jose Pirela
- Leonys Martin
- Joc Pederson
At this point, we’re mostly left with low upside veterans, guys with part-time roles, or those with uncertain paths to playing time. These aren’t the most exciting names, but in deeper formats where you’re still looking to fill out your active roster, sometimes you just need to snag at-bats where you can find them. But even this late in the game, there are pockets of potential here if the stars align. Some of these guys are in the midst of Spring Training battles, which could have a huge effect on their early-season value, so be sure to keep an eye on who emerges as we get closer to Opening Day.
If you’re picking your reserves, or scouring for more upside, you can always elect to stash enticing prospects and skilled bench players who could excel if given bigger roles later in the season. Willie Calhoun, David Dahl, Victor Robles, Austin Hays, Keon Broxton, Raimel Tapia, Jarrod Dyson, Eloy Jimenez, Teoscar Hernandez, and Yasmany Tomas are among those who fit the bill.
2018 Draft Kit: View printable cheat sheets, sleepers & mistakes to avoid 
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
