It’s another strong year for the third base position in fantasy baseball. While first base stands out for its elite, high-end options and second base stands out for its sheer depth, third base has it all. This is a position where you should come out of the draft feeling good about your starter, and you may want to double dip here for a corner infield or utility spot as well.
Per usual, the players are ordered within the tiers as I rank them, but if two guys are in the same tier, it’s close enough that I wouldn’t bat an eye if you went with the one I have listed lower. We’ll roll with the 20-game minimum for eligibility employed by CBS and ESPN, so you won’t find Yahoo-eligible 3B Freddie Freeman (among others) in these rankings.
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Tier One
Arenado checks in at third-overall in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he belongs there. He’s been a model of consistent excellence, finishing as a top-10 overall player in standard 5×5 roto leagues in each of the last three seasons. Sure, he doesn’t really steal bases, but Arenado has regularly been good for at least 37 home runs and 130 RBIs, and he’s no slouch in runs and batting average, either. While all of the other contenders to go third overall have at least one major question mark, there just isn’t one with Arenado. He provides a very safe floor, and it’s an incredibly high one at that.
Bryant has been the 15th player off the board in drafts this spring, which strikes me as too low for a player with a very high floor who could reasonably finish as the top player in fantasy baseball. Yes, Bryant was just the 36th-most valuable player in standard 5×5 leagues last season, but he was the seventh-best in 2016. So what changed? Well, he hit 10 fewer home runs for one thing, and while his lower hard contact rate and inflated ground ball rate support that drop off, I wouldn’t bet on it happening again. Bryant has proven he has 40-HR power and he’s just entering his prime. He also was hurt in 2017 by a weak RBI total (73), which can be chalked up as a fluke given the potent lineup he plays in, even if he continues to hit second. Meanwhile, Bryant improved both his strikeout and walk rates, so we probably haven’t seen his best season yet.
Machado will probably be utilized at shortstop in most leagues once he earns eligibility there, but he’s a more-than-adequate option at third base as well. Like Bryant, Machado’s 2017 season was disappointing by his standards, but there is nothing to suggest it was a sign of things to come. Machado’s power numbers remained elite, but he was done in by a .259 batting average that was dragged down by an unusually low .265 BABIP. Expect him to return to a .285-95-35-95 type of profile in 2018, with 5-10 stolen bases also likely now that he’s seemingly decided to start running again.
Tier Two
It’s no insult to fall into the second tier at third base. Both Ramirez and Donaldson have the potential to finish as top-10 overall players in standard 5×5 leagues if they perform at their best.
Ramirez will typically be employed at second base in fantasy leagues, but he is an elite difference-maker no matter where you use him. As I explained in the second base tiers, he vaulted into the top-10 overall hitters last season by dramatically boosting his home run total while maintaining an elite batting average and healthy stolen base total. And while his home runs and batting average will likely regress a tad, it’s also quite possible that we’ve not yet seen his best season.
Donaldson was a top-10 hitter in standard roto leagues in both 2015 and 2016 before injuries struck last year. Still, he managed to hit 33 home runs in just 113 games, so the power is obviously still there. His batting average dropped to .270 thanks largely to a five percent increase in his strikeout rate, so it will be interesting to see if he experiences a permanent decline in his contact skills at age 32. But whether he hits .270 or .290, Donaldson is a strong bet for 35 home runs, 100 RBIs, and a handful of steals.
Tier Three
This is a tier that I will typically pass over in drafts. It’s not that I dislike Bregman and Rendon. It’s just that more elite players tend to be available at other positions, and there are good values to be found later at third base (as we’ll see in the next tier).
After breaking onto the scene with a huge year in 2014, Rendon was rather disappointing in 2015 and 2016. But he returned to form last year, producing a nice .301-81-25-100-7 line that was good for top-five roto value at third base. Rendon showed improved power due to an increase in his flyball rate and produced his first .300 batting average thanks to greatly improved walk and strikeout rates. His BABIP was in line with his career average, so it’s reasonable to expect that he can largely replicate his 2017 season in 2018. The question is whether he can improve upon those numbers, which is necessary for him to become a true fantasy difference-maker.
Bregman, who is also eligible at shortstop, flashed enticing five-category potential in 2017, compiling a .284-88-19-71-17 line. Encouragingly, he cut his strikeout rate to just 15.5 percent, after striking out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances during his first cup of coffee in 2016. He also displayed an aggressiveness on the basepaths that we didn’t see during his minor league career. It remains to be seen if he’ll run that frequently again in 2018, but there isn’t any reason to expect much regression elsewhere. The question is whether he can become elite in any category, rather than merely solid in all of them.
Tier Four
I’ve already shared my love for Beltre in my pieces on injury-prone players and off-brand value picks, so I won’t belabor the point here. He’s 38 years old and isn’t likely to play 150+ games, but he could easily outproduce Rendon in both batting average and home runs when he’s on the field. If you pair him with a serviceable backup, you should get very nice end-of-season numbers.
I’ve also repeatedly discussed Nunez as a massively-underrated player, but I’ll repeat it again: Over the last two seasons, he has averaged a .299 batting average, 14 home runs, and 32 stolen bases in 510 at-bats. The only conceivable reason he is falling so far in drafts is concerns about playing time, but I believe those concerns are overblown. Nunez will begin the year with the starting second base job, and then when Dustin Pedroia returns, his positional versatility should ensure that he still regularly find his way into the Red Sox lineup.
Upon being called up last July, Devers showed why he was considered such an elite prospect, hitting .284 and launching 10 home runs in just 222 at-bats. Devers should eventually be a 30+ HR hitter, but 20-25 is a more realistic expectation for 2018. He’ll also likely need to cut down on his 23.8 percent strikeout rate if he hopes to hit above .280 again. Still, most of the projection systems expect Devers’ numbers to look an awful lot like Rendon’s, and he’s going 52 picks later.
Shaw was the fourth-best third baseman in standard roto leagues last year, and could certainly do it again as the likely cleanup hitter in a loaded Brewers lineup. His HR/FB rate was quite high last season, but he could offset a decline there with a rise in his flyball rate, which was actually down significantly. He also hits in an above-average park for left-handed power hitters, so 25-30 home runs is a reasonable expectation. His BABIP was a tad high, but his .273 batting average from 2017 shouldn’t completely crater in 2018.
Tier Five
Seager was the sixth-best third baseman in standard 5×5 leagues in 2016, but he was 16th at the position last year. The main culprit was a 51.6 percent flyball rate that was second to Joey Gallo in all of baseball, taking a major toll on Seager’s BABIP — and hence his batting average — without producing a corresponding spike in home runs. Seager should be able to get his batting average back up into the .265-270 range and again hit 25-30 home runs, as he’s done for four straight seasons. He could be a bit underrated as a low-end starting option.
Lamb put up almost identical numbers in 2016 and 2017 and would be a great bet to again hit around .250 with 30 home runs and 90-100 RBIs if it weren’t for the humidor coming to Chase Field. Nobody knows for certain how much the humidor will affect offense in Phoenix, or whether it will affect certain players disproportionately, but it certainly adds a bit more risk to Lamb’s profile. I’d conservatively expect it to cost him 3-5 home runs. He’s also been completely awful against left-handed pitching, but that actually gives him a slight boost in shallow leagues with daily lineups, where you can sit him against southpaws.
As I explained in my first basemen tiers, Gallo has legitimate 50-HR potential and can also chip in a handful of steals, but his strikeout rate is so high that he is unlikely to hit above .230 and could be closer to the Mendoza line. He was a top-10 option at third base in standard roto leagues last year, and his statistical profile makes him a lot more valuable in that format than in points leagues.
Tier Six
I initially had Turner in the third tier with Rendon and Bregman, before he suffered a broken wrist that will likely sideline him into May. Turner was never likely to make it through a full 162-game schedule unscathed, but he can be just as good as Rendon and Bregman when he’s healthy. For example, last season, Turner played 17 fewer games than Rendon, but bested him by 21 points in batting average, matched him in stolen bases, and hit just four fewer home runs. Turner reportedly won’t need surgery, which qualifies as good news, but there is some risk that he hits for less power upon his return. Still, he is in a tier of his own as the type of injured player who makes a lot of sense to stash in a 10- or 12-team mixed league with DL spots, where you’ll be able to find a solid option to cover the 1-2 months he’ll miss at the beginning of the year.
Tier Seven
Castellanos hit .272 with 26 home runs and 101 RBIs in 2017, which was good enough to make him a low-end starting option in standard roto leagues. His peripherals suggest he should be able to put up similar numbers again in 2018, although he might find RBI opportunities lacking on a rebuilding Detroit team.
There was some hope in the fantasy community that Moustakas would sign with a team that could provide a strong offensive lineup and/or ballpark to boost his stats, but instead, he re-signed with the rebuilding Royals. Stil, Moustakas was a starting-caliber 3B last year and is coming off a breakthrough 38-HR campaign, so he shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s likely more of a 30 HR guy than a 40 HR guy, but his solid strikeout rate suggests he should be able to repeat his .272 batting average.
Sano is coming off of shin surgery but has answered concerns about the injury with a strong spring. He could still face a suspension for alleged sexual assault, however. On the field, Sano looks like he could produce 35 home runs in a full season, but he doesn’t contribute stolen bases and his huge strikeout rate makes him a significant batting average risk.
Lots of people have jumped off of the Maikel Franco bus by now, but I’m keeping the faith for one more season. As the 239th player off the board in drafts, it certainly doesn’t cost a lot to take one more chance on him. Franco has belted 49 home runs over the last two seasons but has been the victim of unusually low BABIPs, including a .234 mark last year that was the fourth-lowest in baseball. Franco doesn’t strike out much and has hit the ball on the ground a lot, so if that continues there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to approach the .280 average he posted in 2015. He’s reportedly going to make an effort to hit the ball in the air more, but even then his BABIP should rise some — and that would likely result in more home runs.
Suarez was as streaky as they come in 2017, posting excellent numbers in April and August and terrible numbers in June and September. The end result was a borderline starting third baseman in standard 5×5 leagues. Suarez is only 26 years old, so perhaps he’ll take another step forward, but as of now expect to see another .260-25 type of season. That makes him a solid-enough fill in for 12-team mixed leagues, but you’ll ideally aim higher on draft day.
Tier Eight
Chapman hit 30 home runs between Triple-A and the Majors last season and could approach that number in his first full season in Oakland. He strikes out a lot, so don’t expect him to improve upon last season’s .234 batting average, but perhaps he’ll chip in a handful of stolen bases to help offset the damage.
Healy hit .305 with 13 home runs in less than half a season in 2016 and followed it up with a .271-25 performance in his first full season in 2017. Healy was a .300 hitter in the minors, so perhaps he can improve last season’s batting average, but I wouldn’t bet on it unless he improves his contact rate. Most of the projection systems actually expect him to take a small step back from last year.
Senzel will begin the season in the minors, but the polished prospect should get a chance to shine at some point in 2018. Senzel’s power is still very much a work in progress, but he’s put up excellent batting averages at the minor league level, so he’ll be worth a stash once he’s called up to see what happens.
Frazier and Longoria used to be fantasy mainstays, but their best days are likely behind them. Frazier has become a major batting average liability in recent years, and last season he hit just 27 home runs and stole just four bases, making him basically unplayable. It’s possible we’ll see a rebound in power or speed, but until we do Frazier is not a player that needs to be drafted in 10- and 12-team leagues.
Even in his prime, I found Longoria to be a bit overrated, and he’s now failed to top 22 home runs in three of the last four seasons. He isn’t much of a contributor anywhere else, so he needs to approach 30 home runs to be worthy of consideration in 12-team leagues.
First Baseman Rankings Tiers
Second Baseman Rankings Tiers
Outfielder Rankings Tiers
Relief Pitcher Rankings Tiers
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
