Tiered positional rankings have been around forever as a fantasy draft strategy, but it remains a simple and effective way to decide when you should pounce on a player at a given position, and when you might be able to hold off until later. Today, let’s check out this year’s crop of relief pitchers.
Get award-winning advice with our fantasy baseball tools 
Paying Up
Grabbing one of these guys will certainly help you sleep at night, but you’ll have to ask yourself if you can afford that luxury. Nowadays, stocking up on power is paramount, stealing bases is becoming a lost art, and aces are dwindling in number. This trio’s ADP generally falls between the top 40-70 picks, meaning you’ll be passing up a stud hitter or starting pitcher who can help you acquire those limited commodities.
Don’t misunderstand, Kenley Jansen is amazing, but you could be missing out on someone like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Jose Abreu, or Alex Bregman, who are all around his ADP (38). Don’t be the guy who reaches for Jansen unless he drops to a more comfortable range.
Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman are typically the next two closers off the board at picks 48 and 64, respectively, and both have shown elite upside over the years. However, you’re paying a premium price for Kimbrel after a stellar 2017 season. Don’t forget he had a concerning 13.6% walk rate in an underwhelming 2016, so there’s some added risk going just 10 picks behind Jansen. For that reason, Chapman looks like the better buy, with his draft stock taking a hit following a disappointing season. He was a consensus top-two closer entering last year, so recency bias could scare some drafters away.
Playing it Safe
- Corey Knebel
- Roberto Osuna
- Ken Giles
- Edwin Diaz
- Cody Allen
- Felipe Rivero
- Brad Hand
- Raisel Iglesias
- Sean Doolittle
- Alex Colome
- Wade Davis
Following the elite trio, we have a stable of arms that span picks 75-130. Here’s where we find the rest of the “safe” closers — players we’re fairly confident have the skills and job security to hold the role for the entirety of the season. This is where most drafters will take their first closer, and these guys are bunched close enough together in value that the best strategy is to let others take their favorites first, and wait to see if values emerge. But if an untimely, dreaded closer run arises, or if you’re just a “don’t pay for saves” kind of guy, don’t feel like you need someone from this group.
It’s worth noting that Corey Knebel is listed within this tier even though he’s often getting picked close to Chapman, if not before him. If Knebel repeats last year’s numbers then he deserves to be with the top group, but given his sizable leap in performance and high walk rate (12.9%), it’s safer to project some regression. He should still be plenty good — he did strike out 126 batters after all — but don’t feel compelled to pay full price.
On the other hand, from a skills perspective, Brad Hand represents one of the better values in the tier, clocking in at an ADP around 120. Across two seasons as a full-time reliever, Hand has posted a 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with a 31.9% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. Sean Doolittle has an ADP in the same ballpark with similarly impressive numbers, although his injury history adds some risk to his profile.
Discount Closers
- Hector Neris
- Arodys Vizcaino
- Mark Melancon
- Jeurys Familia
- Brandon Morrow
- Blake Treinen
- Kelvin Herrera
- Archie Bradley
In this grouping we start to add more question marks, with guys holding shakier skill sets, less job security, or coming off down seasons. It starts to get real hairy after this, so if you haven’t grabbed your first closer by this point, this is probably the time to rectify it. These fellows tend to fall between picks 150-200.
Mark Melancon and Jeurys Familia represent potential buy-low opportunities as previously successful closers coming off injury-riddled seasons. There’s no guarantee they regain their past form, but it’s a good price to take a shot. Brandon Morrow has the ability, but struggles to stay healthy. Blake Treinen and Kelvin Herrera are probably the last two guys you’ll be able to grab with relative confidence in their job security.
Archie Bradley is coming off an amazing season, and checks in at the end here, but technically hasn’t been named Arizona’s closer. He could potentially fill a high-leverage setup role instead, which would still make him plenty useful, but obviously puts him at risk from a saves perspective.
Embrace the Middleman
Once the last group is off the board, this is around the time you can consider nabbing a middle reliever to boost your ERA and WHIP, while adding some extra strikeouts. This is becoming a more common and viable strategy as more and more starters throw fewer innings, closing the innings gap between mediocre starters and the elite relievers. Andrew Miller remains the cream of the crop, but you can also elect to wait and see which one drops down the draft board before pouncing. Yusmeiro Petit isn’t being drafted in most leagues, but he’s also worth a flyer in deep formats in case he’s able to repeat last year’s numbers as a multi-inning reliever.
Playing with Fire
- Brad Brach
- Shane Greene
- Fernando Rodney
- Greg Holland
- Cam Bedrosian
- Blake Parker
- Luke Gregerson
- Alex Claudio
- Brad Ziegler
- Joakim Soria
- Dominic Leone
- Addison Reed
- Brad Boxberger
- Nate Jones
This is where we enter into the unknown, and while some great bargains will emerge from this list, there’s also a good chance you come up empty.
You might lose some sleep at night, but guys like Fernando Rodney are still useful at this stage, even if we fear that this is the year things fall apart. Maybe he doesn’t last the full season, but saves are saves no matter where you get them. Similarly, Brad Ziegler is going outside the top 300, which is practically free for someone who has already been named the closer.
Fluid situations for the Cardinals and Angels make it difficult to know who you should be targeting. Blake Parker and Luke Gregerson were the presumptive favorites entering spring training, but we could just as well see Cam Bedrosian and Dominic Leone filling those roles on Opening Day. Whenever your draft arrives, be sure to keep an eye on the latest chatter.
Also, don’t sleep on Greg Holland who remains unsigned, but could wind up getting picked up as a closer in one of the many unsettled situations before it’s all said and done.
So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance
- Zach Britton
- Kyle Barraclough
- Carl Edwards Jr.
- Keone Kela
- A.J. Ramos
- Drew Steckenrider
- Yoshihisa Hirano
- A.J. Minter
- Mychal Givens
- Ryan Madson
In deep leagues, it doesn’t hurt to take a flyer on closers-in-waiting and dark horse candidates to stash on your bench. As an added bonus, they can still serve as ratio boosters if you miss out on the previously mentioned middle relievers. Depending on the number of DL spots in your format, you can take a shot at the injured Zach Britton for a possible closing stint in the second half of the year.
Prepare for your fantasy baseball draft with our Mock Draft Simulator
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | Google Play
Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
