In May we are all excited about the NFL Draft so it made sense to gather some of the best fantasy football minds in the business together and conduct an expert rookie draft. Now that the calendar has switched to June and OTAs and minicamp practices have begun, it’s time to look ahead towards redraft season.
So this time, I gathered another group of some of the industry’s best and conducted an expert’s 16-round, PPR mock draft, hosted by my friends at Myfantasyleague.com. While the majority of analysts are busy with 2018 projections or contributing tremendous content, it was nice to be able to simplify things by building a redraft roster using very standard settings, including a starting lineup of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, and one flex spot.
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With those guidelines set, let’s take a look at the field and the results of the draft.
- Pat Fitzmaurice (@Fitz_FF) – TheFootballGirl.com
- Jeff Haseley (@JeffHaseley) – FootballGuys
- Matt Schauf (@SchaufDS) – DraftSharks.com
- Anthony Amico (@amicsta) – RotoViz
- T.J. Hernandez (@TJHernandez) – 4for4
- Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) – FantasyPros
- Josh ADHD (@FantasyADHD) – RotoGrinders
- Scott Fish (@ScottFish24) – Fanball
- Matt Kelley (@Fantasy_Mansion) – PlayerProfiler.com
- Bob Harris (@footballdiehard) – FootballDieHards
- Jeff Ratcliffe (@JeffRatcliffe) – Pro Football Focus
- Eliot Crist (@EliotCrist) – PowerHourDFS
Mock Draft Results
General Draft Strategy
I drew the final pick in the rookie draft, so I was pleased to move up to sixth in this mock. I generally prefer to be in the middle of rounds to avoid those long waits without picking that goes with picking early or on the turn.
Often you can try to save sleepers or value plays that you know are under-the-radar for a round or two after their ADP but that strategy won’t work in a draft full of sharks. Instead, my objective was to take ‘my’ guys– ahead of where I might normally target them if needed– and to simply let the draft come to me.
With the sixth pick, I’m assured of missing out on the premium running backs, so I’m likely to take an elite wideout, which might open the door to start WR/WR, a strategy that I’ve happily employed early and often so far in 2018. After that, I will take only one quarterback since it’s a 16-round draft and, as per usual, likely stream tight ends.
Rounds 1-5
1.06 DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU)
Just as I figured, the top four running backs went off the board and I feudally hoped that Antonio Brown would fall to me, which didn’t happen. I considered taking Alvin Kamara here but decided that I’d stick to my plan of hopefully attacking WR early and nabbing pass-catching backs in Rounds 5-7.
2.07 Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)
Mike Evans was tempting here and I likely would’ve taken A.J. Green but Josh ADHD scooped him up right in front of me. McCaffrey is a guy I have far too little exposure too because I tend to have a later pick and end up missing out on his range. I actually like him and think he’s a good bet to catch 75-plus passes, so I’m happy to take him as the RB11.
3.06 Jordan Howard (RB – CHI)
For me, this draft fell apart quickly, as I’ve successfully scooped up Doug Baldwin in the third round quite often but T.J. Hernandez took care of that already, leaving me to adapt my WR/WR approach to the exact opposite. I think Jordan Howard is being overlooked by many and think he’s an ideal RB2, even if he doesn’t catch a lot of passes.
4.07 Sony Michel (RB – NE)
Josh got me again, as I had Larry Fitzgerald queued up and probably should have taken Demaryius Thomas, who ended up going one spot after me. Michel might be a bit of a reach, especially when I already have two starting running backs, but I think he’s going to be heavily involved as a passer, especially now that we know Julian Edelman will miss New England’s first four games. In a draft filled with experts, it’s important to take some calculated risks and Michel offers RB1 upside.
5.06 Brandin Cooks (WR – LAR)
This is my favorite pick of the draft. Despite the fact that he’s been a top-15 wide receiver in each of the last three seasons, I got Cooks as the 27th WR of this draft. Sean McVay will return as play-caller, so I’m expecting the Rams offense, which led the league in scoring, to be just fine and for Cooks to quietly approach WR1 numbers once again.
Rounds 6-10
6.07 Devin Funchess (WR – CAR)
Because I started with three running backs in my first four picks, I’m forced to abandon tight end and attack the wide receiver position here in the middle rounds. Funchess is one of the last remaining team WR1 left and I’m certainly ok with having last year’s WR21 as my third wideout. My hope is to target Randall Cobb, one of my favorite WR values, in the next two rounds.
7.06 Nelson Agholor (WR – PHI)
Like I said, in an experts draft, you might have to target your guys a round or two early, which Anthony did by grabbing Cobb, my preferred target, at the end of Round 6. I don’t think that Agholor is going to put up the same numbers that he achieved in 2017 but I’m sticking to my draft board and attacking depth at wideout to make up for my ground-heavy opening.
8.07 Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG)
Shepard is another wideout that I like to target in this area. I think he’s going to surpass 110 targets in a Giants offense that has some very interesting weapons. With four consecutive wide receivers, I will now look to address tight end, as there are two that I’m hoping will slide just one more round.
9.06 Delanie Walker (TE – TEN)
The plan worked, as I have Walker as a top-5 PPR tight end this season and got him as the ninth tight end of the draft. According to the FantasyPros draft analysis tool, which is available immediately at the conclusion of all drafts using Myfantasyleague.com, Walker was my best value pick of the entire draft. I’ll take that.
10.07 Drew Brees (QB – NO)
Taking Brees in the tenth round looks like a tremendous bargain, but this is an experts draft where it’s almost like we have a contest to see who can go the longest without taking a signal-caller but still come out looking good. Jeff Ratcliffe also took advantage of this strategy by taking a pair of top-3 signal-callers in consecutive picks in the previous two rounds. Brees as the QB7 is right about where I have his 2018 value, so I’m certainly ok with nabbing him as my only quarterback in a shallow draft.
Rounds 11-16
11.06 D’Onta Foreman (RB – HOU)
Running back has pretty much dried up at this point, so I decided to target a player that offers up significant upside. Foreman, of course, is recovering from a serious Achilles injury, so he doesn’t come without significant risk.
12.07 Kenneth Dixon (RB – BAL)
As a rookie, Dixon caught 30 passes in 12 games before missing the entire 2017 campaign. I fully believe that Alex Collins is going to take the vast majority of carries for the Ravens, but Collins isn’t a proven commodity as a receiver, which opens the door for Dixon to have a solid change-of-pace role. My target heading into this round was Ty Montgomery, but Bob Harris wisely took him at the end of Round 11.
13.06 Cameron Brate (TE – TB)
I don’t always take two tight ends in a small draft, preferring instead to stream the position but I think Brate, who was a top-10 tight end last season, is an excellent value here.
14.07 James Washington (WR – PIT)
I haven’t taken a wideout since Round 8 and like the upside that Washington offers, as I think he starts immediately in three-wide sets for the Steelers. Again, at this point in a draft, it’s all about potential upside.
15.06 Corey Coleman (WR – CLE)
Coleman is slated to be Cleveland’s starting wideout opposite of Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry. He’s going to see plenty of lesser coverage and has an outside chance of breaking out in Year Three.
16.07 Tavon Austin (RB – DAL)
The Cowboys are talking up Austin like he’s going to receive a ton of weekly touches in Dallas but that’s not going to happen. Instead, he’s got an outside shot at catching 40-50 balls out of the backfield or slot and has should have a handful of solid games as a gadget player.
Overall Draft Thoughts
The FantasyPros projected standings draft tool ranked Pat Fitzmaurice as the draft’s overall best team thanks in large part to his starters. Obviously, Pat will have to overcome the loss of Julian Edelman, who he selected a day before the suspension news broke.
Jeff Ratcliffe of Pro Football Focus had the second-best overall score, which included the fourth-best starting lineup and ranking second with a solid bench.
While I like many of the teams, excluding my own, 4for4’s T.J. Hernandez assembled an impressive squad and hit so many key picks in the middle rounds, giving him a stacked team. Read T.J.’s excellent write-up of his team and his overall thoughts on the draft here.
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Jody Smith is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jody, check out his archive and follow him @JodySmithNFL.
