MLB DraftKings Lineup Advice: Saturday (7/21)

Welcome to MLB DraftKings Saturday! If you’ve played MLB DFS before, you probably already know the strategy to take down a tourney – select the top two pitching plays and stack two teams in hopes that they score a whole bunch of runs. Much easier said than done. We have a monster 11-game main slate to work with coming out of the All-Star Break and plenty of top pitching options to choose from with Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Madison Bumgarner making starts tonight.

As for the hitting, the Rangers-Indians game seems like a great target with a 10.5 over/under. The bats were alive last night at Arlington with the Indians topping the Rangers 9-8 so expect another night of heavy run totals there. The Royals and Twins may be an interesting game to look at as well with the second-highest over/under on the board at nine runs and two vulnerable pitchers in Lance Lynn and Jakob Junis squaring off.

Let’s first take a look at the pitching plays:

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Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (LAD): $11,900 @ MIL

Kershaw is an easy selection on my end with the Brewers striking out in bunches and the other top-priced pitchers undesirable. Verlander will likely perform well, but will unlikely be good value at his highest price point of the season of $13,500. Carlos Carrasco is projected to let up over 4.5 runs in Texas as the fourth highest priced pitcher at $10,200 which potentially makes him a stack against rather than a play. That leaves Kershaw and Bumgarner as the remaining top four pitching options. With the Brewers striking out nearly 10.5 times per game over their last ten, this decision is easy for me.

Felix Hernandez (SEA): $7,000 v. CWS

The White Sox are the type of team that lets Wade Leblanc strike them out ten times. Don’t expect much to change tonight with King Felix on the mound for Seattle.

Now let’s take a look at the stacks:

Four-Player Stack

Indians stack @ TEX (Colon)

Francisco Lindor (SS): $5,500
Jason Kipnis (2B): $4,100
Edwin Encarnacion (1B): $4,400
Tyler Naquin (OF): $3,400

It will be a popular stack with a 5.93 run projection, but I have a hard time not getting behind it. I will be looking to vary it up a bit by avoiding top-priced player Jose Ramirez, which could end up being a mistake, but it’s unrealistic to have both him at $5,900 and Francisco Lindor at $5,500 tonight. Edwin Encarnacion is underpriced at $4,400 with exceptional ISO power against righties while Jason Kipnis got his second half off on the right foot with a two-run homer last night. Look for a resurgent second half from Kipnis who should be in line for some better luck on balls in play. Finally, Tyler Naquin rounds out the stack in the outfield. He should get the start against the right-handed Colon and has some correlation value at the bottom of the order with Lindor at the top.

Four-Player Stack

Rangers stack v. CLE (Carrasco)

Joey Gallo (1B/OF): $4,000
Robinson Chirinos (C): $3,400
Willie Calhoun (2B/OF): $2,900
Adrian Beltre (3B): $2,900

We aren’t getting two creative here with two full stacks of the game with the highest over/under, but the Rangers stack shouldn’t be too popular with Carrasco on the hill for Indians. I always like to target high-priced pitchers with high projected run totals and this one fits, especially when you also consider that the Indians bullpen continues to struggle. Top prospect Willie Calhoun was just called up and makes for a nice play at $2,900 with outfield eligibility on DraftKings. Robinson Chirinos hit a mammoth home run off of Cody Allen last night and makes for one of the better catcher plays on the slate.

We all know that Joey Gallo is one of the streakier hitters in baseball and that his home runs come in bunches. He hit two of them last night and may enjoy a productive start to his second half. Finally, it’s pretty strange to see Adrian Beltre as the lowest priced Ranger, but that’s the case tonight. Beltre’s season has been a struggle and the end may be near for the future Hall of Famer, but he did enjoy his first productive game in quite a while with ten points so maybe it’s time for him to string together some productive games.

That’s it for Saturday. Best of luck!

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