As a proud Washingtonian, the All-Star Game is in my hometown this year. I’m far too cheap to splurge for tickets to the actual game — or the home run derby for that matter — but that doesn’t mean I don’t get to take part in the All-Star festivities.
I spent my Sunday afternoon watching some of the game’s best and brightest in the Futures Game, which is quite a treat for us baseball junkies. Someday I’ll look back fondly on the fact that I got to see prospects like Brendan Rodgers, Bo Bichette, Fernando Tatis Jr., Mitch Keller, Hunter Greene, and Jesus Luzardo play before they were MLB (and fantasy) stars. Oh yeah, and that Taylor Trammell guy looked pretty good, too.
Speaking of All-Star festivities, with a brief break in the fantasy baseball season upon us, it’s the perfect time to take a look at the players who have carried our fantasy teams in the first half. Many of them will be taking the field at Nats Park on Tuesday night, but not all of them. So let’s take a position by position look at how the real-life All Stars compare to the fantasy All-Stars, factoring in players’ value in standard 5×5 roto/categories leagues and their draft day cost. I’ll cover the American League here and then name the National League’s fantasy All-Stars shortly.
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Catcher
Real Life All-Stars: Salvador Perez (starter), Wilson Ramos (injured), Yan Gomes
Fantasy All-Stars: Ramos (starter), Gomes
Analysis: The fans, players, and MLB got this one just about right. Ramos, who was voted in by fans as the starter but will miss the game due to injury, also deserves to be the starter for the fantasy All-Star team. The ninth catcher off the board in fantasy drafts this spring (ADP 196), Ramos has accrued the second-most fantasy value among catchers in standard 5×5 leagues — and the most in the AL.
Ramos’s absence has allowed Perez to start the Mid-Summer Classic and Gomes to make the team. But Gomes gets the edge over Perez from a fantasy perspective, slightly outperforming Kansas City’s backstop in 5×5 value while coming at a much, much lower draft price (ADP 471 vs. ADP 109).
Of course, the most surprising name missing from both of these lists is Gary Sanchez, who suffered through some awful batted ball luck (.194 BABIP) before landing on the DL with a groin strain. Sanchez should return to action shortly after the break and he’s the most likely catcher to be a fantasy savior in the second half.
First Base
Real Life All-Stars: Jose Abreu (starter), Mitch Moreland
Fantasy All-Stars: Yuli Gurriel (starter), C.J. Cron
Analysis: The collection of AL First basemen is shockingly weak this year. Incredibly, not a single one of them has performed above the league average fantasy player, according to Baseball Monster. The position is down as a whole, and the top eight first basemen in 5×5 leagues all play in the Senior Circuit.
With a .308 batting average, Gurriel is the best of the AL bunch, even though he missed some time and has managed just six home runs and three stolen bases. Cron is the only other AL first baseman in the top-10 in 5×5 value, thanks to his 19 first half home runs.
Edwin Encarnacion is primarily a designated hitter, but he has started 15 games at first base. If you include him, Encarnacion’s 22 HRs and 65 RBIs make him the best fantasy 1B in the AL, even though he’s only batting .225.
Second Base
Real Life All-Stars: Jose Altuve (starter), Gleyber Torres (injured), Jed Lowrie
Fantasy All-Stars: Altuve (starter), Torres
Analysis: This is another position where the real life and fantasy All-Stars align.
Altuve has been a little underwhelming from a power/speed perspective, but his owners can’t complain too much as long as he’s hitting .332. Torres and Lowrie were both dirt cheap on draft day, and they have both provided a strong batting average and home run total. The difference is that Torres has done it in 30 fewer games, so he gets the nod for the second spot.
While Lowrie has given a nice boost to fantasy owners who grabbed him off the waiver wire, I would expect Torres, Brian Dozier, and Whit Merrifield to all outperform him in 5×5 leagues during the second half.
Third Base
Real Life All-Stars: Jose Ramirez (starter), Alex Bregman
Fantasy All-Stars: Ramirez (starter), Bregman
Analysis: This is another easy call for the fans and MLB. There are no other AL 3B in the same stratosphere as Ramirez and Bregman.
Ramirez hasn’t just been the best fantasy third baseman in the American League — he’s been the best fantasy player at any position in either league. The guy almost went 30-20 before the All-Star break and he’s got a .302 average, too. That is the kind of production that wins leagues, folks.
Bregman is no Ramirez, but he is having a big-time breakout of his own. He flashed exciting five-category production last season, but he’s taken it to another level this year by already topping last season’s 19 HRs while maintaining his strong batting average and stole base numbers. His Run and RBI totals are also among the best in baseball this year and should continue to be.
Shortstop
Real Life All-Stars: Manny Machado (starter), Francisco Lindor, Jean Segura
Fantasy All-Stars: Lindor (starter), Segura, Machado
Analysis: Ok, here’s where we’ll get a little controversial. MLB ended up getting the right three AL shortstops — thanks to Segura being the “final vote winner” — but selected them in the wrong order.
I don’t expect too many people will object to ranking Lindor ahead of Machado from a fantasy perspective, even though it is largely a function of Lindor hitting in a much better lineup (the two are relatively equal until you see that Lindor has 85 Runs and Machado has 48). But Segura over Machado? Hear me out.
Machado has been more valuable than Segura in 5×5 leagues, and I expect Machado to be a lot better than Segura in the second half. But in the first half, the difference in fantasy value wasn’t massive, and Segura came at a far lower draft cost (ADP 75 vs. ADP 17). Anyone who drafted Machado should be perfectly happy with their selection, but the fantasy owner who passed on Machado for a different player in the second round and then nabbed Segura in the sixth or seventh round has come out ahead up to this point.
Of course, that advantage could dry up in the second half as Segura comes back down to earth and Machado perhaps receives a boost in run production by being dealt to a contender. Which is why I’d look to solidify my gains by selling high if I owned Segura — and perhaps buying low on Trea Turner or Carlos Correa, disappointing shortstops who are capable of huge second halves.
Outfield
Real Life All-Stars: Mookie Betts (starter), Mike Trout (starter), Aaron Judge (starter), Michael Brantley, Shin-Soo Choo, Mitch Haniger, George Springer, Nelson Cruz
Fantasy All-Stars: Betts (starter), Trout (starter), Eddie Rosario, (starter), Andrew Benintendi, Judge, Haniger, Brantley, Nick Castellanos
Analysis: It’s hard to fathom how Rosario and Benintendi were left off of the All-Star team after the terrific first half each of them has produced. Either one would merit a start in the fantasy All-Star game over Judge, but we’ll give the nod to Rosario because his ADP was so much lower than Benintendi’s (127 vs. 42). That’s not to say that Judge is undeserving — he’s been the fifth-best AL outfielder in standard 5×5 leagues, but he came at a fairly high draft cost (ADP 18) and both Benintendi and Rosario have slightly outperformed him.
The first two starters for the AL are obvious — Betts and Trout have both been top-five overall fantasy assets this season, and they have each been the number one overall fantasy player in the past. It’d hardly be surprising if they were the two best players in fantasy the rest of the way.
Springer and Cruz have each delivered the kind of strong fantasy production we’ve come to expect from them, but they have been outperformed in standard 5×5 leagues by Brantley, Haniger, Choo, and Castellanos, who all came much cheaper in fantasy drafts. It’s hard to kick any of that quartet of inexpensive surprises off the team, but there’s only room for three of them. Choo hasn’t been quite as good as the others, so he gets the short stick.
Designated Hitter
Real Life All-Star: J.D. Martinez (starter)
Fantasy All-Star: Martinez (starter)
Analysis: This is another easy choice. Only Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez have been more valuable than Martinez in standard 5×5 leagues. Martinez wasn’t particularly cheap in drafts (ADP 22), but he was still a bargain.
Pitchers
Real Life All-Stars: Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Luis Severino, Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Blake Treinen, Blake Snell, Edwin Diaz, Trevor Bauer, Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, Charlie Morton, Jose Berrios, J.A. Happ, Joe Jimenez
Fantasy All-Stars: Verlander, Sale, Severino, Cole, Kluber, Treinan, Snell, Diaz, Bauer, Chapman, Kimbrel, Morton, Collin McHugh, Lou Trivino, Keone Kela
Analysis: The top 11 pitchers in the AL are pretty clear-cut. They include four proven aces (Verlander, Sale, Severino, and Kluber), three breakout stars (Cole, Snell, and Bauer), and four shut-down closers (Chapman, Kimbrel, Diaz, and Treinan). But after that, things get dicey in a hurry.
Morton, Berrios, and Happ all made it onto the All-Star team because they started the season in dominating fashion, but all three have faded of late. Of the three, only Morton still ranks among the top-30 pitchers in standard 5×5 leagues, so he makes the cut for the fantasy All-Stars. I still have very high hopes for Berrios in the second half, but his current numbers aren’t quite fantasy All-Star caliber. Happ, meanwhile, has completely fallen apart to the extent he is no longer usable in most fantasy leagues.
Jimenez has pitched pretty well and could be a fantasy factor if/when the Tigers deal Shane Greene, but he was a curious choice for the All-Star team — Castellanos should have been Detroit’s representative. For the fantasy All-Stars, we’ll give some love to a couple other middle relievers, McHugh and Trivino, who have rewarded their small cadre of fantasy owners with excellent ratios and a healthy number of vulture wins. Kela also squeezes into the team as a surprisingly valuable fantasy closer on a bad team who could take another step forward in the season’s second half.
So that’s that. Agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments. Next up, the National League, so stay tuned!
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.