Hype comes from all different directions. Coaches tend to talk up their players, frequently to hyperbolic levels. Beat reporters follow suit by ascribing attention to training camp’s standout performers. When enough fantasy writers like what they see, groupthink can lead others to get in line. Raise your hand if you have been personally victimized by John Brown buzz. (*Raises hand, realizing he’s about to fall into the trap again.*)

This isn’t all bad. Sometimes those coaches are revealing their true intentions. Reporters and analysts often like a summer standout for good reason. Carson Wentz, Kareem Hunt, Adam Thielen, and Hunter Henry were trendy choices who still thoroughly outperformed their 2017 draft slots. There lies the challenge for drafters: Who is rising because of empty preseason helium, and who is moving up draft boards because they’re going way too late?

Staying informed while maintaining realistic expectations is a tough tightrope to walk during draft season. Perhaps writing more words on these popular players will only confound the problem, but let’s take a levelheaded look at heavily hyped players to decide if the fuss is warranted.

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Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): QB15, 112.7 Overall ADP
Last year’s QB4, Alex Smith is getting drafted after his Kansas City replacement. Philip Rivers, who has averaged 4,491 passing yards and 30.6 passing touchdowns over the last five seasons, has started every game for the Chargers since Patrick Mahomes turned 11. Guess who has a higher consensus ADP? The guy who looked pretty good in one start last year.

Shielded from a starting job from the stellar Smith, Mahomes went 22-of-35 with 284 yards, no touchdowns and a pick in Week 17’s win over a Broncos defense playing their starters. He previously piqued everyone’s interest by flaunting a rocket arm last preseason, so the anticipation for his inaugural starting campaign is off the charts. In May, a member of Kansas City’s coaching staff told Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller to believe the hype.

“Oh, it’s real,” the coach said. And it’s spectac “We’ve been watching him for a year and he just keeps getting better and better. Sure, there are mistakes, but there are also plays I’ve never seen a quarterback make before.”

As philosopher Michael Jordan once said, the “ceiling is the roof” for the 22-year-old quarterback. He’s positioned for instant success with Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins by his side. Apparently, he also makes no-look throws for fun. He very well could be this year’s Wentz, but it’s not exactly an urgent risk when Smith, Rivers, and Marcus Mariota are cheaper. Those in multiple leagues will probably want at least one share but don’t reach or go all-in on a pricey, unknown commodity. Also, consider pairing him with a safer alternative such as his former teammate.

Chris Carson (RB – SEA): RB46, 142.3 Overall ADP
Pete Carroll keeps saying Chris Carson is his guy. Eventually, we have to listen.

The 2017 seventh-round pick, returning from a leg injury that ended his rookie season in early October, continues to work as Seattle’s primary running back in training camp over 2018 first-round selection Rashaad Penny. Per The News Tribune’s Gregg Bell, Carroll praised the “beautiful looking athlete” as “remarkably fit.”

“He’s just worked so hard and so well conditioned and so strong that he really, he’s tearing it up,” Carroll said. “And so we’re real excited about it. Where we left off, he was just getting going last year and I think he would’ve been a very impacting football player on our team and we missed him, terribly.”

According to Bell, Carson is “clearly ahead of Penny.” Skeptics will point out the irrationality of reaching for a second-string running back in the first round. The most sensible move, however, is not necessarily the one that will happen if the guy making the decision continues to claim otherwise. The counter to that counterpoint: Carroll could change his mind by Week 1 if preseason results point him in the other direction. Yet Carson’s ADP will continue to climb once everyone begins to process this unexpected development, so he’s definitely worth grabbing at his current price. By now drafters might need to pounce a couple of rounds sooner.

Jordy Nelson (OAK – WR): WR38, 96 Overall ADP
Hyped players are typically young and not coming off a wildly disappointing season. A first-round pick in some circles last year, Jordy Nelson compiled his fewest receiving yards (482) and touchdowns (six) since 2009. He totaled 164 yards and no scores in eight games without Aaron Rodgers.

He must be available for nothing, right? Not quite. His consensus ADP still resides in the top 100, and that’s even lower than his recent No. 80 ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator. With the Raiders fueling the buzz, people are beginning to buy a bounce-back.

In what initially seems like a backhanded compliment, Michael Gehlken of the Las Vegas Review-Journal said the 33-year-old wideout is moving “like he’s 28.” To be fair, Nelson notched 1,314 yards and eight touchdowns in his age-28 campaign. Derek Carr also gushed over his new teammate to NBC Sports’s Scott Bair.

“The thing that you hear about that he can’t run anymore, that’s false,” Carr said. “I can tell you, he’s one of the fastest skill guys that we have still. He can run. You see that by his route running. If he can win on underneath routes, which means DB’s are scared about what he can do over the top. He’s still Jordy Nelson, that’s for sure.”

While Nelson draws platitudes, Jon Gruden criticized Martavis Bryant for inconsistent camp performance. Michael Crabtree received 14 red-zone targets last year, so there’s an opportunity for Nelson to resurface as an end-zone monster. I was way out on the former Packer entering life without Rodgers, but I’m beginning to believe the hype enough to reconsider my unflattering WR48 rank.

George Kittle (SF – TE): TE11, 127.8 Overall ADP
Perhaps it says more about the position’s futility that George Kittle is already getting drafted as a starting tight end. Despite seeing fewer snaps, he ended his rookie campaign with 11 catches for 194 yards and a touchdown over San Francisco’s last three games. Now he gets a full season to work with Jimmy Garoppolo.

Although Evan Engram challenged the age-old axiom, Kittle still had a solid debut for a first-year tight end. When asked about growing accustomed to San Francisco’s playbook, he told The Athletic’s David Kombardi: “Well, my head doesn’t feel like it’s going to explode every play now.” He’s also poised to see more opportunities. According to Niners Wire’s Rob Lowder, the 24-year-old is “now clearly the team’s No. 1 tight end.” A 57-percent snap rate should rise.

He’s an ideal target for those waiting out the position, but most drafters won’t have the luxury of holding out too long. Anyone with a hint of upside is going to get considerable fanfare, so he has joined Trey Burton as this year’s wide-awake sleeper. Beware the overall ADP rising in leagues where desperate managers reach for the next tight end after Burton and Jordan Reed go.

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