Last week we looked at wide receivers that our writers considered to be overvalued based on their current rankings. Next up, we’ll examine the running back position. We’re not saying these running backs will bust. That’s too strong. They could be successful in 2019. However, the writers just don’t feel they are worth their current draft capital reflected by the expert consensus rankings and early ADP.
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Which running back are you least likely to draft at their current expert consensus rank?
Le’Veon Bell (NYJ)
“When drafting a running back in the first round, you want to know that there’s room for a top-three finish, and I just don’t believe that to be the case with Bell. He’s on a Jets’ offense that is now under Adam Gase, and no matter what anyone used to think about him as a play-caller, it hasn’t shown up as a head coach. On top of that, the Jets offensive line is nowhere near as talented as the Steelers line was, which won’t allow Bell’s patient running style to flourish. You also won’t see Sam Darnold drop back to pass nearly as much as Ben Roethlisberger did, which ultimately means no more 100-plus target season for Bell. He’s a fine running back to select in the middle of the second-round as a decent floor option, but he doesn’t present the ceiling you want out of a first-round pick.”
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)
“Bell is a great talent and one of the most versatile running backs in the NFL, but he turned 27 years old this off-season and he has been out of football for a year. His weight reportedly ballooned in the off-season to 260 pounds and there is no telling what that will do to his explosiveness, even if he loses the weight this off-season. There is also the decline in supporting cast, particularly on the offensive line, which was ranked 25th in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. As a late second or early third round pick, he is worth the risk given his past production, but with an ECR of eight, it is very unlikely that I select him that high in fantasy drafts this year.”
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Aaron Jones (GB)
“I’m doubling down on what I said in our February 28 “7 Overvalued Players” article. According the current ECR, Aaron Jones is the RB13. I had to refresh the page to make sure it wasn’t broken. We’re taking this guy late second round? Aaron Jones is clearly the most talented RB on the Packers, but what has he done to warrant being worth a second-round pick? Jones has now been in the league for two seasons, and he has played a full season in neither (22/32 games played). Even if we start in Week 8, where Jones took over as the Packers’ lead back, out of his final eight games, Jones never touched the ball more than 20 times and reached that number just twice. He had a total of three top-six finishes but was an RB2 or worse in every other game (including all games prior to taking over as a starter). After he was injured (again) in Week 15, Jamaal Williams posted consecutive RB1 finishes. It doesn’t matter who plays RB for the Packers because RBs don’t matter. That scares me in fantasy, especially in the early rounds. If I am spending one of my top three picks on a running back, it needs to be someone I know has job security. He is a clear step below every back that goes before him. If David Johnson, Dalvin Cook, or Joe Mixon go down, we know, with absolute certainty, their jobs are waiting for them when they return. We can’t say that about Aaron Jones. I like Jones as a player, but low-end RB1 is his absolute ceiling and we are currently drafting him very, very close to that. I don’t like to make definitive claims in April just as much as I don’t like making then in February, but there is no scenario where Jones is even a remote consideration for me anywhere in the first three rounds. I’ll just take a wide receiver.”
– Jason Katz (@jasonkatz13)
Kerryon Johnson (DET)
“Shockingly, my rankings are extremely close to the expert consensus top 20 right now. Among them, however, I will likely have the fewest shares of Kerryon Johnson. There is some upside, of course, but the Lions added C.J. Anderson and may make a move in the draft. For those assuming Kerryon is going to be a three-down back this year, consider that he said himself that he isn’t a three-down back. Perhaps most importantly, if Kerryon is on the board, my favorite mid-round target, Chris Carson, almost assuredly is as well so I’m definitely going to pass up Kerryon for Carson.”
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)
Sony Michel (NE)
“This one isn’t about talent as much as it is about team and opportunity. Over the last 10 seasons, New England has had seven different leading rushers and no consecutive seasons with 1,000-yard rushers. The nature of the New England offensive scheme usually allows for several backs to make an impact, including the occasional deployment of a receiver (Cordarrelle Patterson, anyone?). Rex Burkhead has surged for the Pats when healthy and should be good to go for the season opener. James White emerged as an excellent receiving weapon out of the backfield, and New England’s receiving corps is as barren as ever, meaning White should stay involved in the passing game. The presence of both of those players mixed with the uncertainty of a Bill Belichick backfield gives me cause to pause when selecting Michel this season, especially at his current price of RB15.”
– Zak Hanshew (@ZaktheMonster)
James Conner (PIT)
“Conner is one running back who will not be on any of my redraft teams. Even if the Steelers do not add a running back via the draft, I will still be staying away from him based on his current ranking. The Steelers are not expected to be as good on the ground without future Hall of Famer Antonio Brown to draw defensive attention. While he was still impressive against heavier fronts, he was at his best vs. light fronts as he averaged 5.1 yards per carry and saw them on over a third of his carries. Conner is being drafted at about where his fantasy ceiling lies, which indicates he is not a value in any way, shape, or form. Adding to that, there are a minimum of four running backs I would draft before him who are currently ranked lower. James Conner had an incredible stretch last season behind a motivated Steelers offensive line. However, his 1.12 yards created per carry (38th in league) suggests that he may be a volume- and touchdown-dependent back who had the benefit of playing behind one of the best run-blocking lines in the league.”
– Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext)
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