7 Overvalued Players (2019 Fantasy Football)

Feb 28, 2019

While we’re still only in the midst of the NFL Combine, it’s never too early to evaluate fantasy football players. It’s good to start thinking about those that will return value in 2019 fantasy football drafts, but it’s also useful to consider others that will be overrated entering the new season. Along those lines, we’ve asked our writers for their most overrated players based on current Expert Consensus Rankings.

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Which player do you think is most overvalued by the Expert Consensus Rankings?

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – PIT)
“Don’t get me wrong, I love me some JuJu, but WR8? It seems all but certain that Antonio Brown is gone in 2019, which means Smith-Schuster will start seeing top-tier cornerbacks on a regular basis. On top of that, it means his slot usage will decrease, which will negatively impact his efficiency on targets as well. A lot of times, the cornerback who covers the slot only comes into the game when an offense goes three-wide, which means he’s not even worthy of starting on the perimeter. And before you think the departure of Brown means more targets, I’d caution you to jump on that train of thought, as Smith-Schuster already had 166 targets in 2018.”
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

Jameis Winston (QB – TB)
“I am a Buccaneers fan. I have been a patient supporter of Winston since the very beginning. I do think Winston has what it takes to be a QB1. The problem is he has never been one. His best finish was in his rookie year when he finished just outside the top 12. Right now he is QB9 on the ECR, in the same tier as Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton. All of these quarterbacks have led the league in fantasy points at least once in their careers, all have played in the Super Bowl, and all are currently on teams better than Tampa Bay. Winston is also ahead of Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and Philip Rivers, all of which were QB1s last year on playoff teams. Rising stars like Mitch Trubisky and Baker Mayfield are ranked below him but fared much better than Winston last year. He’s ahead of Tom Brady and it isn’t even close. I understand the Bruce Arians fascination. I am well aware that Winston has earned the reputation as a reckless gunslinger which gets people excited. I also agree that he has a great arsenal to throw to in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard. Winston is supposed to be the dark horse of 2019 and surprise everyone with finally meeting his potential that got him drafted first-overall in 2015. It amazes me that he has gone from being outplayed by an NFL journeyman in 2018 along with having a questionable future to now all of a sudden being überhyped in 2019.”
Marc Mathyk (@masterjune70)

Kerryon Johnson (RB – DET)
“This is the classic case of loving the player but hating the situation. It isn’t as though I think this is Michael Turner waiting to break out or anything like that, but if Detroit used Kerryon as a three-down back, he’d be a quality investment for sure. I’m not expecting that, however. He saw 20 touches just twice before his season ended with a knee injury in Week 11. That mark is tied for 25th in football with players like Josh Adams, C.J. Anderson Mike Davis and Jeff Wilson. It is behind the likes of Dion Lewis, Elijah McGuire and half of what Peyton Barber was given. There are plenty of running backs going behind him with larger expected roles so I’d much rather wait on a Derrius Guice, Jerick McKinnon or James White.”
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)

Chris Carson (RB – SEA)
“Carson as the RB17 stands out as the most overvalued player based on ECR. Marlon Mack is another player who was considered here, but he does not have a more talented player already in the backfield like Carson does. Carson was great in 2018. He ran for 1,151 yards which placed him fifth in the NFL, and he was one of only nine running backs to cross the 1,000-rushing yard threshold. Carson has the talent to be an effective NFL running back for the next few years, but the talent gap between him and Rashaad Penny may be too much to overcome. Especially when one considers the draft capital spent selecting Penny 27th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. There was always expected to be an adjustment period for Penny due to coming from a non-power five school in San Diego State, but once that adjustment was complete it became clear to anyone who watched the Seahawks that Penny was the more explosive and complete back, even as a rookie.”
– Raju Byfield (@FantasyContext)

Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE)
“Landry at the WR24 spot seems a bit too high for my taste heading into 2019. Although he finished as the WR23 last season, his production will surely dip in the future. The Browns have acquired talented pass-catching back Kareem Hunt, and David Njoku will be back to full health. Landry didn’t have any competition for targets in 2018, with the Browns employing Antonio Callaway and later Breshad Perriman in the receiving corps. Landry was extremely inefficient in 2018, catching only 81 of his 149 targets and averaging a pathetic 6.55 yards per target. Of 34 WRs and TEs with at least 100 targets last season, Landry finished ahead of only Zay Jones and Michael Crabtree in yards per target and ahead of only Crabtree in catch percentage. He doesn’t have a propensity for finding the end zone either, scoring only four times in 2018 and 26 times in his five-year career. Landry has made a living on receptions (100 per season from 2014 – 2017), but it’s clear that he isn’t going to be force-fed the ball in Cleveland as he was in Miami. The Browns will certainly get a top-tier receiver in the offseason, whether through the draft, free agency, or trade, further diminishing Landry’s value.”
– Zak Hanshew (@ZaktheMonster)

Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
“Seriously? We’re taking this guy late second round? Aaron Jones is clearly the most talented RB on the Packers, but what has he done to warrant being worth a second-round pick? Jones has now been in the league for two seasons, and he has played a full season in neither (22/32 games played). Even if we start in Week 8, where Jones took over as the Packers’ lead back, out of his final eight games, Jones never touched the ball more than 20 times and reached that number just twice. He had a total of three top-six finishes but was an RB2 or worse in every other game (including all games prior to taking over as a starter). After he was injured (again) in Week 15, Jamaal Williams posted consecutive RB1 finishes. It doesn’t matter who plays RB for the Packers because RBs don’t matter. That scares me in fantasy, especially in the early rounds. If I am spending one of my top three picks on a running back, it needs to be someone I know has job security. He is a clear step below every back that goes before him. If David Johnson, Dalvin Cook, or Joe Mixon go down, we know, with absolute certainty, their jobs are waiting for them when they return. We can’t say that about Aaron Jones. I like Jones as a player, but he is seriously overvalued in the second round, even the late second round. I don’t like to make definitive claims, particularly in March, but there is no scenario where Jones is even a remote consideration for me anywhere in the first three rounds. I’ll just take a wide receiver.”
– Jason Katz (@jasonkatz13)

Marlon Mack (RB – IND)
“While I think Mack is a quality running back, I’m just not sure that he’s the 35th best player on the board. Currently ranked as the RB16, I believe that there is greater value out there to be had as opposed to Mack, who not only ceded touches to Nyheim Hines in passing situations, but Jordan Wilkins was in the mix as well. And although Wilkins’ opportunities began to fade toward the latter stages of 2018 once Mack got healthy and going, Hines’ opportunity share remained fairly consistent for the duration of the year. Hines totaled 148 touches is his rookie campaign and averaged 9.3 touches per game, a number that I believe is on the rise entering his second year. What’s more, the Colts have a ton of cap space and could be in the market to make a splash addition at running back. If they brought in a three-down back like Le’Veon Bell, you can stick a fork in Mack’s fantasy value for 2019. With players that include Derrius Guice (RB23) and Jerick McKinnon (RB25) slated behind Mack in the ECR, I’d be more inclined to address another need and target one of those backs in the next round. Entering 2018, both Guice and McKinnon had ADPs nearly a round or two higher than where they are now but saw their seasons derailed due to preseason injuries. And since not much has changed in their scenarios, the upside should be there for 2019.”
– Anthony Cervino (@therealnflguru)

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