Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 9 (2019)

It’s a rough day at the office for DFS players. Week 9 has New Orleans, Los Angeles, and Atlanta all on bye weeks. Making matters worse, Kansas City is off the board total wise as Vegas waits for confirmation regarding whether or not Patrick Mahomes will indeed return to start under center. If that was not enough to sour the week, New England and Baltimore play Sunday night taking them off the main slate at both DraftKings and FanDuel.

San Francisco plays Thursday night against Arizona, and Dallas plays the New York Giants on Monday. Finally, we have another Wembley Stadium 9:30 AM EST game between Houston and Jacksonville further draining the talent in the player pool. With so many of the top teams to target in DFS off of the main slate, chasing the contests with high totals becomes our focus for Week 9.

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Russell Wilson against Tampa Bay is the most appealing quarterback play of the week. Unfortunately, the DFS sites are fully aware of this and have priced Wilson accordingly across the board. The Buccaneers have been better against the run than one might expect and this should lead to a higher number of pass attempts than we may otherwise see against a team that Seattle is clearly superior to. Jameis Winston is always an appealing play but comes with an alarming warning label. Although he is seventh in the league with 14 passing touchdowns, he is tied with Baker Mayfield for first with 12 interceptions. The high over/under total increases Winston’s upside in this matchup.

At running back only Chris Carson is worth single entry looks. Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber have been splitting touches pretty evenly this season, and have been in effect canceling each other out from a fantasy perspective due to playing with consistent negative game scripts. Chris Carson is seventh in the league with 659 rushing yards but leads the NFL with 544 yards after contact. His ability to force missed tackles will be a key ingredient to having success against an impressive Buccaneers front limiting opponents to 2.95 yards per carry. That number jumps to 4.28 yards per carry against starting running backs with a broken tackle percentage above 22.5.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are getting the stud treatment pricing wise. Two of the elite options on the main slate, Evans and Godwin are third and first in fantasy points per game respectively. Both are great options against a Seahawks team that has struggled against the WR1 types they have faced this season. Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf both deserve long hard looks this weekend as well. Metcalf leads the league in end zone targets and is coming off a Week 8 that saw him record the first multi-touchdown game of his career. Lockett, the WR11 in fantasy points is shaping up to be a great option against a forgiving Buccaneers pass defense in a contest with the highest posted total on the slate. 

The tight end position is a risky proposition for both teams involved in this contest. Luke Willson thoroughly out-snapped Jacob Hollister in Week 8 but ended up with a lighter workload. Cameron Brate has some appeal if O.J. Howard sits out again, but both tight ends become extremely low floor plays if the other is active.

Detroit versus Oakland is the contest with the second-highest total of the week. The Raiders defense is one to target in fantasy, and in Week 9 they are attached to an over/under total that makes the skill players from both teams in this contest very appealing. The Raiders are currently the betting favorites. This suggests that the Lions will be throwing the ball enough for their wideouts to have strong outings. It also suggests that Josh Jacobs will not find his carry opportunities limited by game flow.

With Oakland on tap for Week 9, Matthew Stafford looks like one of the most attractive main slate options. The Raiders have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed 298.3 passing yards per game (third-most) and 2.71 touchdowns (most in the league). Stafford is priced fourth in salary rank across the board. Derek Carr appears to have some upside in a contest with a total of over 50 points. He has been inconsistent this season and has just 11 touchdowns in seven contests. Carr is a high-risk play who could pay off due to his salary rank based value across the board. 

Detroit’s backfield is currently a mess. The Lions deployed a four-man committee at running back in the wake of Kerryon Johnson being placed on injured reserve. Tra Carson, Ty Johnson, J.D. McKissic, and Paul Perkins all received touches as the Lions attempt to find a new lead back. Until this situation sorts itself out, this is a backfield to avoid. Josh Jacobs has been a revelation this season. He is fifth in the league with 88.6 rushing yards per game and is on pace for a 1,417 rushing yard season. To put his extrapolated pace in context, Saquon Barkley rushed for 1,307 yards in his rookie season. Jacobs is able to maximize his opportunities thanks to elite contact balance and tackle-breaking ability. According to Sports Info Solutions, he is fifth in the league with 412 yards after contact (3.3 per attempt) and is fifth with 29 broken tackles. Carson is a value at Yahoo. 

Oakland only boasts one fantasy-relevant receiver in Tyrell Williams. Williams looked solid in his return to the field in Week 8. He hauled in three of his six targets for 91 receiving yards and has now scored a touchdown in five straight contests. Tyrell appears to be a value at Yahoo when potential game script based volume is taken into account. Danny Amendola has joined Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones in the realm of fantasy relevance. He has averaged eight receptions and 100 receiving yards per game over his last two contests. Marvin Jones has had just three games over 56 yards receiving this season, but as we all know by now, one of them was a monster four-touchdown afternoon. Outside of his exciting Week 7, Jones has found the end zone in just one other contest. Kenny Golladay has averaged 72.6 receiving yards per game on the season and has 100 yards or a touchdown in five of his seven contests this season. Golladay is one of the costliest options of the week but is teaming with upside in a matchup with the Lions pegged as underdogs in a high scoring contest. Danny Amendola is priced as a potential value across the board. 

T.J. Hockenson maintains the upside he flashed in Week 1 but is not being utilized enough to consider outside of a multiple lineup dart play. Hockenson has failed to record more than 32 yards receiving since his six reception, 131 yard and one touchdown performance against the Arizona Cardinals. Darren Waller was a massive disappointment in Week 8, partially thanks to ex-teammate Gareon Conley’s coverage. Waller is averaging 70.9 receiving yards per game and is sporting a massive 26 percent target share that ties him for sixth in the entire league. The converted wide receiver has six receptions or a touchdown in six of his seven contests this season. Waller is now being treated as an elite tight end across the board. 

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.