The NBA season is one week old and with every passing day we get more data to learn from. With every team playing four games or less, the data sample is pretty small, so we need to be cautious about the assumptions we are making. A lot of the league’s teams look much different than a year ago so it is hard to rely on that data as well. Of course, there is still an edge in DFS who understand these truths and have a good amount of experience. Let’s dig into this beautiful Tuesday eleven-game slate and give you some picks we feel good about!
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel 
Stacks
One thing I find useful in NBA DFS is exploring player correlations. It’s hard to predict with great accuracy what an individual player is going to do in an individual game. It is easier to predict what a pairing or grouping of players will do in that game. When you’re building a lineup for cash games, you want to have a high floor of points in your lineup. One way to get a higher floor is to play guys on the same team together. Every team has to play all 48 minutes of the game, so there is a definite share of shots that they are going to take. If a team’s main player takes a smaller percentage of those shots than normal, that means someone else took a higher percentage. If we can pinpoint teams that have a tight distribution of fantasy points scored, we can play the top contributors from those teams and give ourselves a higher probability of getting a good return on the money we spend. Let’s explore a few that have drawn my interest tonight.
The NBA season is one week old and with every passing day we get more data to learn from. With every team playing four games or less, the data sample is pretty small, so we need to be cautious about the assumptions we are making. A lot of the league’s teams look much different than a year ago so it is hard to rely on that data as well. Of course, there is still an edge in DFS who understand these truths and have a good amount of experience. Let’s dig into this beautiful Tuesday eleven-game slate and give you some picks we feel good about!
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Stacks
One thing I find useful in NBA DFS is exploring player correlations. It’s hard to predict with great accuracy what an individual player is going to do in an individual game. It is easier to predict what a pairing or grouping of players will do in that game. When you’re building a lineup for cash games, you want to have a high floor of points in your lineup. One way to get a higher floor is to play guys on the same team together. Every team has to play all 48 minutes of the game, so there is a definite share of shots that they are going to take. If a team’s main player takes a smaller percentage of those shots than normal, that means someone else took a higher percentage. If we can pinpoint teams that have a tight distribution of fantasy points scored, we can play the top contributors from those teams and give ourselves a higher probability of getting a good return on the money we spend. Let’s explore a few that have drawn my interest tonight.
Jayson Tatum (PF – BOS): $7,700 + Kemba Walker (PG – BOS): $8,400 vs. Bucks
This game has a solid total at 222.5, and it is expected to be a tight game with the Bucks favored by three. The Celtics have been without Enes Kanter the last two games, which has really driven the usage to Tatum and Walker. In those two games these two have combined for 39% of the team’s field goal attempts, 43% of their points scored, and 35% of their Fanduel points. Tonight these two cost $16,100 together. If you had paid that price for these two in those two previous games, you would have seen a very, very strong 5.8x and 5.6x return on the salary spent. That is not guaranteed to happen again, but with how much of the team’s offensive output these two are commanding, they are likely to return a very nice score for what they cost.
Russell Westbrook (PG – HOU): $10,600 + James Harden (SG – HOU): $11,000 @ Wizards
Houston is the top projected scoring team tonight with a Vegas implied total of 119. Collectively these two have scored 49% of the Rockets’ fantasy points this year. They have 41% of the field goal attempts, 75% of the team’s assists, 38% of the rebounds, and 53% of the team’s points. The Rockets are the best bet to lead this slate in fantasy points scored, and you can get half of those points by playing these two together. It should be noted that through three games, these guys have not put up a strong price-considered fantasy score collectively, but they have not been a huge disappointment either. If you’re picking just one (you should not play them both in a tournament), Westbrook has been the safer option. Harden has seen a decline in rebounds and assists with Westbrook on the team, but he’s still putting up an insane amount of shots (he’s attempted 32 three-pointers in the last two games). I believe the upside is higher with Harden given the massive volume of shots he takes, but Westbrook seems a bit less likely to dud given the amount of rebounds and assists he’s still piling up (he has averaged 13 rebounds and 10 assists in these three games).
Stephen Curry (PG – GSW): $9,600 + D’Angelo Russell (SG – GSW): $8,400 + Draymond Green (PF – GSW): $8,000 vs. Suns
The Warriors have the second-highest team implied total on the board and are coming off a game on Monday when they really seemed to piece it together. These three combined for 149 Fanduel points in that game, which was an amazing return at their salaries. On the year, these three are scoring 45% of the team’s fantasy points, while contributing 67% of the assists and 46% of the points scored. That is even with Russell being ejected in the team’s second game and playing just 22 minutes. The Suns have been one of the league’s best fantasy matchups for the last several years, and the Vegas total for the Warriors suggests that they are not any better in 2019. Another bonus is that the Warriors have played awful defense this year and do not look like a team that will blow many teams out. They are just a five-point favorite in this one at home, so this is a great environment for a shootout.
Guards
Devin Booker (SG – PHO): $8,5000 @ Warriors
As we mentioned above, the Warriors have been the worst defensive team in terms of giving up fantasy points so far this year. That is only a three-game sample, so we don’t want to rely on it, but it is worth noting. Here are the Warriors points and fantasy points (using Draftkings scoring) allowed through three games this year:
Clippers – 141 points allowed, 264 fantasy points allowed
Thunder – 120 points allowed, 241 fantasy points allowed
Pelicans – 123 points allowed, 268 fantasy points allowed
The league averages thus far are 110 points and 227 fantasy points. Those three games could turn out to not be predictive of the future, but they certainly stand out right now.
Booker has not played very well this year, but he is the Suns #1 option on offense by far. He is coming off of a game against the Jazz where he did not register a single assist. That disappointing game led to a $600 price decrease on Fanduel, which is something we can take advantage of. Booker should shoot the ball 20+ times in this one and has averaged more than six assists per game even with the outlier zero on Monday. He has also found himself in foul trouble in all four games this year, which has taken away minutes in a few games. If his shot falls and he stays out of foul trouble, Booker is in for a huge game at this price.
Malcolm Brogdon (PG – IND): $8,200 @ Nets
One thing we have seen with the Pacers over the last few years is them taking very ordinary fantasy players from other teams and turning them into studs. Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis are good examples of this. Neither of those guy were interesting at all for fantasy with the Thunder, but they became high fantasy-point-per-minute (FPPM) players after joining the Pacers. We have seen this happen with Brogdon as well. In three games he has scored 1.34 FPPM. He has a 25% usage rate on the year while taking 16 shots and dishing out 11 assists per game. He scored 45 Fanduel points while shooting just 29% from the floor on Monday, you will not see that very often. The schedule has also been rough for the Pacers as they have played the Pistons twice already, this matchup with the Nets is more conducive to fantasy points, and Brogdon’s price has not quite caught up with his production and role in the offense yet.
Derrick Rose (SG – DET): $6,200 @ Raptors
It was a disappointing game for Rose on Monday when he was very popular in DFS. He shot just 25% (on 16 attempts) from the field in that game, scoring just 16 Fanduel points in 26 minutes. Reggie Jackson and Blake Griffin remain out, which makes Rose a top option in this Pistons offense. His usage rate has been through the roof and figures to stay that way tonight. The matchup is tough, and the Pistons implied total is low, but there is major value in this $6,200 price for Rose coming off of a game where he burned a lot of people.
Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF – MIL): $11,600 @ Celtics
The Greek Freak continues to do astounding things with the Bucks. This year, he leads the Bucks in points, shot attempts, rebounds, assists, usage, and fantasy points. He has only played a full amount of minutes once in three games due to some foul trouble and a blowout against the Cavaliers. The spread on this game is just two points, so there is a great opportunity for Giannis to push his minutes into the high thirties. He is a top-three guy in FPPM and his numbers against the tough Celtics defense were right alongside his averages for the year last year, so the matchup should not scare you so long as you think this game will be close. One big key of NBA DFS is hitting on your studs. The goal of NBA DFS is to get a great points per dollar return on the ~$60,000 you spend. Giannis costs 19.3% of the salary cap tonight, so if you get a 6x return on the money you spend on Giannis, that is a massive advantage.
Kelly Oubre (SF – PHO): $6,900 @ Warriors
We showed you the data on the Warriors defensive struggles in the Devin Booker write-up, so if you have not seen that go check it out. Without Ayton in the lineup, Oubre has averaged 14 shot attempts, five three-point attempts, 20 points, five rebounds, and three steals per game. If this game goes the way Vegas is suggesting, Oubre should give you an awesome return at $6,900.
Nerlens Noel (PF – OKC): $3,800 vs. Trail Blazers
This one hinges on the availability of Steven Adams, who is listed currently as a game-time decision. Noel played all of the backup center minutes in the Thunder’s game on Monday, and Mike Muscala‘s minutes have trended down all year and hit zero in that Monday contest. If Adams misses, Noel should be locked into 20+ minutes with upside into the thirties. Last year when he played more than 20 minutes with the Thunder, he scored 1.35 FPPM, and he has scored 1.23 FPPM this year. He projects easily for 27+ fantasy points if given 20+ minutes here, with huge upside at that price tag.
Centers
Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $11,200 vs. Timberwolves
The matchup of the night is this Embiid vs. Towns showdown. While Towns is always one of the highest floor/ceiling combo players in the game, he is a little pricey for my liking, so I am going to favor Embiid in this spot. The ex-volleyball player from Cameroon has played just two games this year as he missed the 76ers’ second game of the year due to injury. He was a game-time decision on Monday, but then he played and scored 64 Fanduel points in 32 minutes. In 56 minutes this year, he has 33 shot attempts, 10 three-point attempts, eight assists, 26 rebounds, three steals, four blocks, and a 1.97 FPPM rate. There is the risk that his rebounds tick down a bit if he follows Towns outside the three-point line, but Embiid has a huge ceiling and a legitimate floor, even at the exorbitant price tag.
Nikola Vucevic (C – ORL): $8,500 vs. Knicks
It has been a slow start to the year for Vucevic, but his price has fallen $600 since his first game of the year because of it. There are not any real signs of Vucevic being a different player this year than in prior years, as he is still averaging 16 shot attempts and 10 rebounds per game. The three-pointers have not been falling for him as he is just two-for-twelve from deep this year. Last year he shot 36% from three, so there is some positive regression coming for that aspect of his game. The matchup is good and the price is exploitable.
Hassan Whiteside (C – POR): $7,500 @ Thunder
This is only a play I want to make if Steven Adams misses. Fanduel seems to have adjusted Whiteside’s price for this matchup as he dropped from an $8,300 player on Monday to a $7,500 player tonight. The Thunder are usually very tough on centers, but if Adams misses, that is out of the window and this price becomes a big value. Whiteside leads the league in rebounds per minute for players that have played more than 20 minutes (0.48). While he is unlikely to play 30 minutes (he has topped out in the mid-twenties this year), he is one of the most productive centers in the league while on the floor. Whiteside is a great tourney play and a cash consideration as well.
Myles Turner (C – IND): $7,400 @ Nets
Two of Turner’s three games have come against Andre Drummond, which is never a good formula for fantasy production. He is averaging 38 minutes per game this year, which is four more minutes than last year. On the season he has a low 0.75 FPPM rate. Last year, he came in with a 0.75 or lower FPPM rate in just 13% of his games. There is a high probability that his FPPM will not stay this low for long, and I think tonight is the start of it. The matchup with the Nets is great, as they added 10% to centers’ fantasy point totals last year and are off to a bad defensive start against big men again this year. Turner may be more of a tournament play given his career inconsistencies, but I like him everywhere tonight at such a low price tag.
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him@JonPgh.
