Week 4 of the 2019 NFL season proved to be a slate full of monster kicking performances, as eight kickers posted at least ten fantasy points, including three 15-point performances by Matt Prater, Matt Gay, and Josh Lambo.
The one heavily-owned kicker who managed to join in the double-digit fun was Greg Zuerlein of the Rams. Greg the Leg kicked four extra points and two long field goals to finish with 13 fantasy points.
Rookie Joey Slye continues to impress with 13 points for the Panthers. The undrafted former Virginia Tech Hokie has at least 12 fantasy points in three of his four career NFL games and continues to be one of the best fantasy kickers despite an ownership mark of just 65% on Yahoo.
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Here are a few Week 4 strong performances from widely-available kickers
Matt Gay (TB) @ Los Angeles Rams: 6% ownership on Yahoo
Gay shook off any adverse effects of his shank at the end of the Bucs Week 3 loss to the Giants. The Bucs shocked the world by soaring 55 points on the road against the Rams on Sunday, with Gay posting two made field goals and seven extra points. Obviously, you cannot count on a floor of seven extra points, but there is a lot to like about this young kicker, and he should be a great option this week indoors against a Saints defense that held the Cowboys to 10 points on Sunday Night.
Austin Seibert (CLE) @ Baltimore: 5% ownership on Yahoo
Seibert has quietly been a valuable fantasy asset over the past three weeks, with 31 fantasy points dating back to Week 2. The Browns offense appears to be coming to life, Baker Mayfield is spreading the ball around more, and the run game with Nick Chubb blew up against the Ravens. With matchups ahead against a surprisingly stout 49ers defense and the Seahawks, Siebert could once again finish as a K1 in each of the next few weeks.
Josh Lambo (JAC) @ Denver: 9% ownership on Yahoo
Through four weeks of the season, Josh Lambo is tied with Matt Gay for the fourth-most fantasy points among kickers with 40. The veteran kicker for Jacksonville has yet to score fewer than seven fantasy points, including last week’s breakout 15-point performance against the Broncos. Fantasy owners need to take the Jags and Lambo seriously, as it appears Gardner Minshew and the offense is going to be decent for fantasy purposes the whole season.
Week 4 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers
Justin Tucker (BAL) vs. Cleveland: 100% ownership on Yahoo
Tucker is still the best kicker in the league and should be 100% owned in fantasy leagues. Unfortunately, even great kickers on good teams can face negative game scripts that negate opportunities for field goal attempts. That was the case for Tucker and the Ravens this week with the Browns punching them in the face and jumping out to a big lead.
Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) vs. Carolina: 85% ownership on Yahoo
The fall of last year’s No. 1 fantasy kicker continued this week with Fairbairn posting four measly points against the Panthers. Fairbairn has scored four or fewer points in three of his four games, as the Texans offense that was a top 10 offense last season currently ranks 23rd in yards per game. As long as Deshaun Watson and the offense struggles to move the ball, Fairbairn will continue to let down fantasy owners.
Kicker Rankings
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 4 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at PIT | -3 | 43 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 28 | 68F, Overcast, 6 mph Wind |
| 2 | 1 | Harrison Butker | KC | vs. IND | -8.5 | 54 | 31 | 12 | 2 | 45 | 59 Mostly Cloudy, 5 mph Wind |
| 3 | 2 | Greg Zuerlein | LAR | at SEA | -1.2 | 48 | 11 | 22 | 7 | 40 | 58F Overcast, 10 mph Wind |
| 4 | 3 | Stephen Gostkowski | NE | at WAS | -13 | 48 | 22 | 11 | 15 | 48 | 70F Overcast, 8 mph Wind |
| 5 | 7 | Robbie Gould | SF | vs. CLE | -4 | 47 | 26 | 5 | 4 | 35 | TBD |
| 6 | 5 | Wil Lutz | NO | vs. TB | -6.5 | 47 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 34 | Dome |
| 7 | 11 | Joey Slye | CAR | vs. JAC | -3 | 42 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 38 | 73F Overcast, Light Wind |
| 8 | 15 | Aldrick Rosas | NYG | vs. MIN | 5.5 | 46 | 15 | 18 | 6 | 39 | 68F, Overcast, 10 mph Wind |
| 9 | 8 | Brett Maher | DAL | vs. GB | -4 | 48 | 19 | 31 | 3 | 53 | Dome |
| 10 | 19 | Josh Lambo | JAC | at CAR | 3 | 42 | 17 | 4 | 14 | 35 | 73F Overcast, Light Wind |
| 11 | 9 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. LAR | 1.2 | 48 | 24 | 30 | 13 | 67 | 58F Overcast, 10 mph Wind |
| 12 | 10 | Mason Crosby | GB | at DAL | 4 | 47 | 3 | 21 | 20 | 44 | Dome |
| 13 | 6 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. ATL | -4.5 | 49 | 18 | 27 | 22 | 67 | Dome |
| 14 | 13 | Matt Bryant | ATL | at HOU | 4.5 | 49 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 40 | Dome |
| 15 | 14 | Matt Gay | TB | at NO | 6.5 | 47 | 25 | 8 | 10 | 43 | Dome |
| 16 | 12 | Adam Vinatieri | IND | at KC | 8.5 | 54 | 12 | 28 | 19 | 59 | 59 Mostly Cloudy, 5 mph Wind |
| 17 | 18 | Austin Seibert | CLE | at SF | 4 | 47 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 33 | TBD |
| 18 | 16 | Jake Elliott | PHI | vs. NYJ | -13 | 45 | 30 | 24 | 16 | 70 | 67 Overcast 9 mph Wind |
| 19 | 17 | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs. BAL | 3 | 43 | 23 | 9 | 29 | 61 | 68F, Overcast, 6 mph Wind |
| 20 | 29 | Daniel Carlson | OAK | vs. CHI | 6 | 41 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 44 | 56 Overcast 8 mph Wind |
| 21 | 26 | Randy Bullock | CIN | vs. ARI | -4 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 27 | 37 | 67 Overcast 5 mph Wind |
| 22 | 20 | Zane Gonzalez | ARI | at CIN | 4 | 49 | 20 | 2 | 23 | 45 | 67 Overcast 5 mph Wind |
| 23 | 21 | Ty Long | LAC | vs. DEN | -6.5 | 44 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 46 | 81F 7 mph Wind |
| 24 | 22 | Eddy Pineiro | CHI | at OAK | -6 | 41 | 13 | 6 | 30 | 49 | 56 Overcast 8 mph Wind |
| 25 | 23 | Brandon McManus | DEN | at LAC | 6.5 | 44 | 29 | 7 | 18 | 54 | 81F 7 mph Wind |
| 26 | 24 | Dustin Hopkins | WAS | vs. NE | 13 | 48 | 1 | 16 | 28 | 45 | 70F Overcast, 10 mph Wind |
| 27 | 25 | Dan Bailey | MIN | at NYG | -5.5 | 46 | 16 | 25 | 24 | 65 | 68F, Overcast, 10 mph Wind |
| 28 | 27 | Steven Hauschka | BUF | at TEN | 1 | 38 | 27 | 29 | 9 | 65 | 77 Overcast 7 mph Wind |
| 29 | 28 | Cairo Santos | TEN | vs. BUF | -1 | 38 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 79 | 77 Overcast 7 mph Wind |
| 30 | 31 | Sam Ficken | NYJ | at PHI | 13 | 45 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 50 | 67 Overcast 9 mph Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank second in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 5:
Aldrick Rosas (NYG) vs. Minnesota: 13% Ownership on Yahoo
Rosas has always been a favorite kicker of mine based on the fact that he is accurate and plays on a team that has ranked in the bottom half in red zone efficiency dating back to Week 1 of last season. It may surprise some people to know that the Giants rank 9th in the league in yards per game.
Josh Lambo (JAC) @ Carolina: 9% ownership on Yahoo
Lambo has the 5th most fantasy points this season but continues to be overlooked by the fantasy community. His K Score of 35 suggests a substantial opportunity to put up at least seven fantasy points this week against a Carolina defense that just shut down the Houston Texans in Week 4. Lambo presents one of the best floors at the position and has proved with back to back double-digit performances he has the ability to give owners a big ceiling as well.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Joey Slye @ Houston: 55% Ownership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 15
My Rank: 6
Week 4 Finish: Tied #4
Slye entered the week with an excellent K Score of 39, the same as Greg Zuerlein and Justin Tucker. Kyle Allen has been great filling in for an injured Cam Newton, but the Panthers still rank in the bottom half in red-zone efficiency despite ranking in the top 12 in total yards per game. Slye has the makings of a breakout fantasy kicker and should be owned in all league sizes.
Randy Bullock @ Pittsburgh: 0% ownership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 18
My Rank: 12
Week 4 Finish: Tied for #25
Bullock’s K Score metrics indicated that he would have an above-average chance to finish as a top 12 kicker this week, assuming that Andy Dalton would not be terrible again in primetime. Bullock did make a field goal and would have had two more opportunities without a fumble by Dalton when the team was in field goal range. From now on I will avoid making recommendations on Bengals players playing in primetime, as Andy Dalton is too unpredictable and the Cincinnati offensive line is terrible.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Josh Lambo (JAC) vs. Carolina: 9% ownership on Yahoo
The Gardner Minshew hype is real, and Lambo is once again a viable fantasy option. Bye week owners of Matt Prater should give Lambo strong consideration this week. Another player to look at is Robbie Gould of the 49ers who is coming off of a bye.
Other players to consider:
Matt Gay (TB) @ New Orleans: 5% ownership on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.
