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DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 15 (2019)

by Nate Snodgrass
Dec 12, 2019

Welcome to Week 15! I can’t believe we are already nearing the end of another NFL regular season. It seems like just yesterday we were going through mock drafts and trying to figure out this year’s sleeper.

Each week, I will provide a recap of the prior week’s picks. The cheaper the player, the higher the value you are hoping to get. The ultimate goal is to get three-to-four times the price of each player. The higher the value, the better the play.

Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill — 31.5 points (5.43x)

Running Back: Devonta Freeman — 19.4 points (3.59x), LeSean McCoy — 5.3 points (1.2x)

Wide Receiver: Kelvin Harmon — 4 points (1.08x), Marcus Johnson — 22.5 points (6.25x)

Tight End: Mike Gesicki — 1.6 points (0.4x)

The goal of this article is to provide daily fantasy football advice for DraftKings value plays. Implementing a few value plays in your lineups allows for the opportunity to play the top-tier studs. The key with a value play is to find a player with a high floor that also has the opportunity for a breakout game. Non-tight ends under $6K and tight ends under $4.5K will be considered value plays.

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Kyler Murray (ARI): $5,600 vs. CLE
After being held under 200 yards in each of the past three weeks, Murray’s rate of passing yards per game has declined. However, those were against three tough defenses, and this week he likely gets his best matchup since Week 10. The Cleveland Browns’ defense shouldn’t scare teams, especially with their lead pass rusher, Myles Garrett, being suspended. The Browns have allowed multiple passing touchdowns eight times this season. Outside of last week, Murray has had at least 28 rushing yards each game since week 8. Playing at home, Murray should get back on track.

Running Back

Raheem Mostert (SF): $5,200 vs. ATL
Mostert is finally starting to break away as the lead running back for the San Francisco 49ers. He has clearly been the best running back recently, as he’s rushed for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the past two weeks. Typically, it is tough to trust an RBBC like the one that the 49ers have, but even head coach Kyle Shanahan has said the 49ers have no choice but to use Mostert as the lead back. He is slightly involved in the passing game as well.

Patrick Laird (MIA): $4,500 at NYG
Prior to a few weeks ago, most people had never heard of Patrick Laird. Due to injuries and trades, the Miami Dolphins have been forced to make Laird their lead running back. He has 33 touches in the past two weeks combined. Even though this game is a battle of two bad teams, there is some fantasy production to be had. Laird had four receptions in each of the last two games, adding to his floor at only $4,500. 

Note: If Josh Jacobs misses this week, DeAndre Washington becomes a must-play at this price and would be recommended over Patrick Laird.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown (TEN): $6,000 vs. HOU
Coming off a 36.6 DK point performance, I usually don’t like to recommend chasing points, but Brown’s matchup is just as good this week. He has been a boom or bust player all year. He has four games over 15 DK points but also four games under 5 DK points. Now that his price is $6,000, you really need another explosion week. The Houston Texans’ secondary has been struggling most of the season, and the Tennessee Titans’ offense has been firing on all cylinders recently.

Danny Amendola (DET): $4,100 vs. TB
Marvin Jones was placed on injured reserve this week, making Amendola the number two wide receiver on the Detroit Lions roster. Even with David Blough as his quarterback, Amendola should see plenty of opportunity against the biggest pass-funnel defense I have seen in a long time. Jameis Winston will likely turn the ball over a few times, allowing the Lions to keep this game close.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee (LAR): $3,900 at DAL
Assuming Gerald Everett is out again, this is another great spot for Higbee against the Dallas Cowboys. They are 27th in DVOA against tight ends, and Higbee’s usage has been incredible over the last two weeks. He had seven catches and crossed the century mark both weeks that Everett has been out. As long as the Los Angeles Rams can give Jared Goff time in the pocket, Higbee is set up for another great week. 

Ian Thomas (CAR): $3,100 vs. SEA
DraftKings did not adjust Thomas’ price enough based on last week’s production. He finished with 10 targets and 16.7 DK points last week at minimum price. Seattle also struggles against tight ends. The Carolina Panthers continue to fall behind, resulting in more opportunities for their opponent’s passing game. If Greg Olsen is active this week, I would not recommend playing Ian Thomas.

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Nate Snodgrass is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, follow him @NSnods.

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