Injury chaos struck the fantasy football world in Week 14, and it struck in a big way. Let it serve as a reminder that even the best-laid plans — and best-made teams — can go south in a hurry in this crazy little game of ours.
It also speaks to the immense value of earning a first-round bye in the fantasy playoffs. There’s been plenty of chatter in the Twitterverse lately about ways to further benefit the best regular-season teams, such as allowing them to apply the higher of their Week 14 and Week 15 point totals to their semifinal matchup. I understand the thinking, but that is too massive an edge for my taste. Simply dodging the bullet of a potential first-round exit by getting a bye — and maybe getting a payout for having the most regular-season points — is a big enough reward for regular-season accomplishments.
I say this as someone who had the best regular-season record and earned a bye in my oldest league. And as someone who currently faces an uphill battle in the semifinal against a loaded team that sports Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry, not to mention two elite QBs that he can start against me (Drew Brees and Dak Prescott), plus Stefon Diggs, Marlon Mack, etc, etc. I’m a big underdog.
I’ll probably lose, but you never know! Because in the end, there is always going to be a healthy dose of luck/weekly variance at play in fantasy football. Just look at last week. It’s easy to get upset about it, but I’ve learned that the best strategy is to just come to terms with it. Not every year is going to be your year, but if you know your stuff, you’ll win more than your competitors in the long run.
Speaking of winning, last week was another pretty good one for my over- and undervalued picks. Pegging Austin Ekeler and Ryan Tannehill as undervalued were two of my best calls of the year, while I also presciently faded Tom Brady, Odell Beckham Jr., and Vance McDonald. James Washington and Jacob Hollister (both listed as undervalued) were my main misses, while Ronald Jones slightly exceeded my low expectations for him, but not by much.
As always, this week’s over- and undervalued picks are based on FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings for 0.5 PPR formats. If you need lineup advice not found here, hit me up on Twitter @andrew_seifter. I try to answer every question I get.
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Quarterback
Overvalued: Carson Wentz (PHI)
ECR: QB13
My Rank: QB20
Wentz is coming off two straight solid fantasy performances and gets another seemingly exploitable matchup this week with a Washington defense that has given up the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. But that is where the good news ends. Even with his recent run of good play, Wentz is just the QB15 in points per game this year (min. 8 games played) and went over a month-and-a-half without a multi-TD game in October and November. He is also completely devoid of reliable wide receivers. Alshon Jeffrey and DeSean Jackson (remember him?) are on IR, while Nelson Agholor (knee) is looking doubtful and isn’t really reliable even when he is healthy. Peppering Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert with targets will only get you so far. Oh, and about that supposedly juicy matchup? Washington is actually a top-11 defense in terms of passing yards allowed, and 13 of the 23 passing TDs they’ve allowed occurred over the first five games of the season, so they’re trending up.
Undervalued: Josh Allen (BUF)
ECR: QB19
My Rank: QB14
I won’t lie, I don’t feel all that great about recommending Allen in one-QB formats for the fantasy semifinals. If you have been riding Tannehill or Jameis Winston, or have the option of streaming Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield, you should probably go with them instead. But if you’re short on alternatives, Allen has shown enough this season to consider sticking with him even for a very tough road date with a Steelers defense that has held eight of its last 10 opponents below 200 passing yards. Allen currently ranks fifth among all QBs in fantasy points in 2019, and his ability to produce yards and touchdowns with his legs makes him slightly less matchup-dependent than other QBs. Yes, he struggled in a similarly daunting matchup with Baltimore last week, but you have to believe his season-low two rushes for nine yards against the Ravens was an anomaly.
Running Back
Overvalued: David Montgomery (CHI)
ECR: RB20
My Rank: RB26
Montgomery may be a good running back in time, but his rookie season is likely to go down as a disappointment, at least in fantasy terms. Despite all the hype surrounding Montgomery’s potential fit in Matt Nagy’s offense (some generated by Nagy himself), the rookie tailback is averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per carry and has eclipsed 90 scrimmage yards just once (in Week 8). He’s just the RB28 in points per game (min. 8 games played), and the RB44 over his last five games. He has performed better over the last two weeks — along with the rest of the Bears’ offense — and does get a favorable draw with a Packers D that has had all kinds of problems defending the run. But as 4.5 point underdogs in a game with an over/under of just 40.5, the Bears are unlikely to have another big offensive week at Lambeau Field. I’m not ready to move Montgomery into RB2 territory just based on the matchup and his last couple of games.
Undervalued: Joe Mixon (CIN)
ECR: RB17
My Rank: RB14
There’s no point in sugar-coating it, the Patriots are not a good matchup for Mixon. But are they really a must-avoid matchup? I’m not so sure. New England rarely gives up rushing touchdowns, but they have allowed an opposing running back to reach 90+ yards from scrimmage in four of their last six games. Meanwhile, Mixon enters this game playing easily his best football of the year. He’s been a top-5 running back over his last six games, and Andy Dalton’s return to the field has undoubtedly improved his weekly upside. Importantly, Mixon has been heavily utilized as both a rusher and receiver out of the backfield, so he should have a relatively high floor this week regardless of game script.
Wide Receiver
Overvalued: Emmanuel Sanders (SF)
ECR: WR19
My Rank: WR27
Sanders completely lit up the Saints secondary in Week 14, hauling in seven catches for 157 yards and a touchdown. He even threw a TD pass against them. But are we just going to totally forget about the previous four games, when he averaged 2.5 catches for 28 yards? The 49ers are generally not a high-volume passing attack, and even when they have been, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel have proven to be more consistent contributors than Sanders. The Falcons certainly seem like an appealing matchup, but 10 of the 14 touchdowns they’ve allowed to wide receivers came in the first five games — they’ve been less bad since. As double-digit favorites, there’s also the possibility San Francisco jumps out to a big lead and takes the air out of the ball. Sanders proved how high his ceiling is last week, but we can’t completely discount his floor.
Undervalued: Dede Westbrook (JAX)
ECR: WR28
My Rank: WR19
Westbrook missed the better part of two games with neck and shoulder injuries, but he’s quietly averaged five catches for 52 yards in the Jaguars’ other 11 contests. Hardly earth-shattering stuff, but it was enough to establish a fairly decent floor, and now he is looking at a sizable uptick in targets with D.J. Chark (foot) likely to sit out in Week 15. Chark has been one of the bigger breakouts of the 2019 season, and Westbrook should be the primary beneficiary of his absence against a bottom-five Raiders pass defense that was torched by A.J. Brown for 153 yards and two touchdowns last week. Gardner Minshew has had an up-and-down rookie season, but there’s no question that the Jaguars’ offense has looked more dangerous with him under center than Nick Foles, and it’s a good week to invest in his number one target.
Tight End
Overvalued: Jack Doyle (IND)
ECR: TE6
My Rank: TE11
If you’re just looking for a tight end who will get some targets, I guess I can see using Doyle. But even with Eric Ebron lost for the season, Doyle’s upside is minimal as a possession receiver in the Colts’ low-volume passing attack. This is a catch-and-fall-down player who has produced fewer than 30 yards in eight of his 12 games this season, so you’re really just hoping for a touchdown if you start him. I’d rather take a shot on Tyler Higbee or Jacob Hollister, who have at least shown the ability to make plays down the field.
Undervalued: David Njoku (CLE)
ECR: TE18
My Rank: TE14
Hopefully, you have a set-it-and-forget-it player at fantasy’s weakest position, but if you don’t, Njoku could be worth considering. He currently has 41 receiving yards on the season, so it’s obviously a risk to rely on him in the fantasy semifinals. But he was expected to be a significant part of Cleveland’s offense coming into the year and looks to finally be healthy after missing three months with a broken wrist. This week he gets the Arizona Cardinals, who by this point are widely known as far and away the worst team in the league at covering tight ends. I’m sort of looking at Njoku the way I would in Week 1 — it’s hard to know exactly what to expect from him, but the upside is clearly there.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
