Skip to main content

DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Monday (8/24)

Aug 24, 2020

This is where things get good. Sunday’s slate was arguably the best day of basketball that I’ve seen all year, and the games are only going to get better from here with elimination games finally in play. That means all hands are on deck, and that’s exciting for us DFS players!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Chris Paul (OKC) vs. HOU $8,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. IND $6,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Eric Bledsoe (MIL) vs. ORL $5,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Paul has scored at least 45 DK points in two of three of the games in this series, and he should continue to thrive against the fastest-paced team in the NBA.
  • Dragic has been starting for Miami recently, and he’s scored at least 32 DK points in all three games of this series. He’s also averaging 39 fantasy points per game in that span.
  • Bledsoe is too talented of a player to be below $6,000. That was evident by his 37 DK points in Game 3 and his 28-point floor in this series.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James Harden (HOU) vs. OKC $11,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jimmy Butler (MIA) vs. IND $8,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Victor Oladipo (IND) vs. MIA $6,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Harden is a near guarantee for 60 DK points with Russell Westbrook out of the lineup.
  • Jimmy Butler could play 45 minutes in this close-out game, which makes him hard to fade.
  • Oladipo could also play huge minutes, and that’s big, as he’s posted a 30-percent usage rate in these playoffs.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
LeBron James (LAL) vs. POR $10,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Danuel House Jr. (HOU) vs. OKC $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Luguentz Dort (OKC) vs. HOU $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

  • James looks hungry right now. He’s scored over 68 DK points in two of three games in this series.
  • House just played 42 minutes in Game 3 and has scored at least 30 fantasy points in back-to-back fixtures.
  • Dort is being asked to play big minutes to guard Harden, and it’s hard to overlook a guy at $4K who could play 40 minutes.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Anthony Davis (LAL) vs. POR $10,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Robert Covington (HOU) vs. OKC $6,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Carmelo Anthony (POR) vs. LAL $5,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Davis has at least 51 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he faces a Portland defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing PFs.
  • Covington saw limited minutes because of foul trouble in Game 3, but he should be back to his usual 35-40 minutes here.
  • Melo has been great recently — he’s scored at least 36 DK points in four of his last seven games.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bam Adebayo (MIA) vs. IND $7,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Brook Lopez (MIL) vs. ORL $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
P.J. Tucker (HOU) vs. OKC $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • With Indiana allowing opposing centers to kill them all year, Bam is averaging 39 DK points per game in six fixtures against them.
  • Lopez has too much potential to be at $5,200. He’s averaging 26 DraftKings points per game for the season, and he has surpassed that average in four of his last five games.
  • Tucker regularly plays 40 minutes for the Rockets and should stumble into 5X value with rebounds and hustle statistics. He’s actually provided 6X value in two of the three games in this series.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • James Harden (HOU) $11,700: It’s hard to fade Harden whenever Westbrook is out. He’s averaging about 40 minutes, 25 shots, and a 40 percent usage rate in these circumstances. That’s enough for 60-plus DK points per outing.
  • LeBron James (LAL) $10,800: LeBron has been amazing in two of three games in this series and should continue that ridiculous form in such an important game.
  • Anthony Davis (LAL) $10,500: Davis’ 51-point floor is hard to overlook at $10,500, and he has 80-point potential against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $8,100: In a close-out game here, Butler could be looking at a season-high in minutes. He’s played at least 37 minutes in every game of this series, and that alone makes him a great option at $8,100.
  • Chris Paul (OKC) $8,000: A loss here would put OKC in a 3-1 hole, and CP3 will do everything possible to avoid that. We love that with him scoring at least 45 DK points in two of three games in this series while averaging 41 fantasy points per game in six outings against Houston for the season.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,100: Giannis is obviously one of the best players out there, but something tells me that we’re looking at a blowout here. If he sees only 30 minutes, it’ll be hard for him to reach the 60 DK points we need from him north of $11,000.
  • Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $9,100: If we’re projecting a blowout here, Vooch is obviously a tough pick too. He had just 33 DK points in the last blowout, and it’d be hard to imagine him reaching 50 with the spread sitting at 13.5 points.
  • Khris Middleton (MIL) $7,900: Middleton just hasn’t looked right in this series. He actually hasn’t surpassed 38 DK points in five straight games, and he’s averaging just 27 DK points per game in that span. That’s terrible from a $7,900 player.
  • T.J. Warren (IND) $7,800: Warren was the best player in the regular-season bubble, but his 23 percent usage rate in these playoffs is a bad sign. He’s still seeing a crazy price tag because of that regular-season form, and it worries me that he’ll be dealing with a hungry Jimmy Butler here.
  • C.J. McCollum (POR) $7,700: McCollum scored 51 DK points in Game 3, and it’s earned him this crazy price tag. He didn’t reach 30 fantasy points in Game 1 or 2, and it’s going to be tough for him to reach value against the best defense in the Western Conference.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

What's your take? Leave a comment

Build winning DFS lineups

Use the FantasyPros Lineup Optimizer to build winning lineups based on expert projections.