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FanDuel DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Monday (8/17)

FanDuel DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Monday (8/17)

A pair of value pitching options headline my favorite hurlers tonight. Despite my preference to roster value pitchers tonight, the hitting value plays feature a variety of salaries and some extremely cheap options to accommodate rostering any of the highest-priced pitchers on this slate. There are also a few stud hitters who are worth their salary as well, but they aren’t the studs from the Rockies, they can be found in a different section of this space.

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Alex Cobb (BAL) vs. TOR $6,500 ⭐⭐ Medium
Brandon Bielak (HOU) vs. COL $6,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
Remember when Cobb was an excellent starter for the Rays in back-to-back seasons in 2013 and 2014? It’s been more downs than ups since then, but he’s spun a 2.75 ERA (4.10 SIERA) with a gaudy groundball percentage (64.9 GB%) and solid if unspectacular 20.2 K% through four starts spanning 19.2 innings, per FanGraphs, that harkens memories of his two-year run of strong pitching. It’s probably not a coincidence that his bounce-back year coincides with his splitter performing at a dynamite level. The veteran righty has held hitters to a negative-30 wRC+ and generated a bananas 27.3 SwStr% on the splitter this year. He’s still priced like the scrub we’ve seen in recent years, but this doesn’t look like that version of Cobb, making him a steal who offers massive upside that belies his salary.

Bielak has been decent as a starter, but it’s a matchup with the road-bound Rockies that fuels his inclusion in the table. The Rockies spent all of last week hitting in the thin air and dreamy hitting conditions of their home ballpark, and they’ll now have to adjust to a road series with Houston. The conditions are right for Bielak pitching well, and after getting stretched out to 84 pitches in his last start, a quality start could be in the offing, too.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Max Muncy (LAD) vs. SEA $3,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Miguel Sano (MIN) vs. KC $3,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Mitch Garver (MIN) vs. KC $2,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Royals starter Kris Bubic has made the leap from High-A to the Majors, and he hasn’t embarrassed himself in his three turns. Although, the lefty’s coming off of his worst start in which he coughed up seven hits, two homers, one walk, and five earned runs in five innings. Sano and Garver mash against lefties, and with a larger book for big-league hitters to study on the young Bubic, more struggles could be on the way.

Muncy’s one of the game’s best hitters against right-handed pitchers with a .378 OBP, .284 ISO, and 143 wRC+ against righties since 2017. Opposing starter Justin Dunn’s 4.85 ERA through three starts spanning 13.0 innings has actually been quite lucky compared to his peripherals, so he’s ill-equipped to tame Muncy’s thunderous bat.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jonathan Schoop (DET) @ CHW $2,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Robinson Cano (NYM) @ MIA $2,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Danny Mendick (CHW) vs. DET $2,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High

 
The keystone position is once again one of my favorites to punt at. Schoop offers plus power with a .230 ISO against lefties since 2017, and he has a matchup to tap into that against Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has yielded a .461 SLG to righties since last year, and he’s struck out a modest 20% of them.

Cano’s swinging a hot stick and playing like his peak years self. Through his first 52 plate appearances in 2020, he has ripped two homers with a .191 ISO, .423 OBP, and 175 wRC+. He has a favorable matchup with Jordan Yamamoto tonight, and he won’t be the only Met included in this piece.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Gio Urshela (NYY) vs. BOS $3,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Justin Turner (LAD) vs. SEA $3,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Travis Shaw (TOR) @ BAL $2,500 ⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Turner doesn’t hold the platoon advantage teammate Muncy does against Dunn, but the right-handed hitting third baseman has been excellent in righty-righty matchups since 2017 with a .381 OBP, .176 ISO, and 131 wRC+. He’s also nestled in the heart of an order that should knock Dunn around tonight.

Speaking of hitting in the heart of an order that should rake, the injury bug has bitten many of the regulars and paved the way for Urshela to climb the batting order. He’s a decent bet to hit cleanup against Martin Perez tonight. The Yankees retooled Urshela’s swing last year and the results have been great. In matchups specifically with lefties using his revamped swing, Urshela’s tallied a .342 OBP, .230 ISO, and 129 wRC+.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Tim Anderson (CHW) vs. DET $3,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Carlos Correa (HOU) vs. COL $3,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Gleyber Torres (NYY) vs. BOS $2,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

 
Shortstop is busting at the seams with great options in plus matchups tonight, and another will make an appearance in the studs worth their salary section below. The trio of value options all face a lefty tonight, and each has impressive bona fides against southpaws since 2017 (or 2018 in the case of Torres since that’s when he reached The Show) with Anderson notching a 126 wRC+, Torres ripping off a 137 wRC+, and Correa leading the way with a 156 wRC+.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Eloy Jimenez (CHW) vs. DET $3,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Dominic Smith (NYM) @ MIA $3,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Michael Conforto (NYM) @ MIA $3,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Aaron Hicks (NYY) vs. BOS $2,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Joc Pederson (LAD) vs. SEA $2,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
It might feel like deja vu for readers of yesterday’s piece, as Smith and Conforto are carryovers. Smith hit cleanup and Conforto hit second yesterday against righty Zack Wheeler, and the duo called the same two fantasy-friendly lineup spots home in the Mets’ two prior games against right-handed starters as well. They’re facing a below-average starter and both have been above-average hitters against righties. Smith is more of a power-chasing play with a .251 ISO yet poor .302 OBP against righties since 2017. Conforto’s a legit stud against righties who is underpriced. He’s tattooed them for a .386 OBP, .243 ISO, and 140 wRC+ since 2017.

Hicks is one of my favorite bargains on the slate. The switch-hitting outfielder has a .343 OBP, .202 ISO, and 117 wRC+ against lefties since 2017. Even before injuries befell other starters for the Yankees, Hicks called favorable lineup spots home frequently hitting third. Yesterday, he hit leadoff against a righty. Either lineup spot would be great for his fantasy outlook tonight.

4 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Juan Soto, WAS ($4,600): Soto’s a precocious talent who’s already one of the game’s best hitters, and he’s one who’s totally locked in with a .500 OBP, .525 ISO, 276 wRC+, and six homers in 46 plate appearances this year.
  • Nelson Cruz, MIN ($4,100): Cruz is defying the odds in his grey-beard years, and he’s a thorn in the side of lefties with a .405 OBP, .323 ISO, and 161 wRC+ against them since 2017.
  • J.D. Martinez, BOS ($3,700): Like Cruz, Martinez is a lefty-killer. In fact, Martinez is the premier lefty-killer with a 204 wRC+ against them since 2017 that’s a whopping 22 points higher than the next-highest mark among qualified hitters during that time frame.
  • Corey Seager, LAD ($3,500): Seager’s returned from injury with aplomb, and he has the highest barrels per plate appearance percentage among qualified hitters this year, per Baseball Savant.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Zac Gallen, ARI ($9.700): My favorite roster builds tonight feature some expensive stacks, and, with that in mind, I’ll be fading Gallen.
  • Trevor Story, COL ($4,000):
  • Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4,000):
  • Nolan Arenado, COL ($3,800): This trio of Rockies are all much better at home than on the road, yet they’re priced like they’re in their hitter-friendly confines instead of on the road as they are tonight. Pass on all three.
  • Jose Altuve, HOU ($3,500): Altuve’s new lineup spot in the bottom of the order remained yesterday, and he’s not worth a top second baseman salary while he’s hitting down there.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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