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Round 3 Value Picks and Busts (2020 Fantasy Football)

Aug 10, 2020

Every round of a fantasy football draft brings with it decisions to be made, pitfalls to avoid and potential league-winning upside if you make the right picks. And our analysts are here to make sure you’re well prepared for every round of your draft; here are their thoughts on what to do – and what not to do – with your third-round pick (rounds based on consensus ADP in 1/2 PPR scoring formats as of Aug. 3):

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Q1. Who has the greatest value potential in Round 3?

It’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire, though you may not be able to get him in the third or even second round by the time you draft. The exit of Damien Williams (opt-out) has cleared a path to 250-plus touches for the rookie running back in what is the league’s best offense. Edwards-Helaire is a true three-down back who’ll be featured in the passing game, too. He was my No. 1 running back as a prospect in this year’s draft, so it’s not just the fact that he’s a workhorse running back for the Chiefs. If you wanted to take him at No. 7 overall, I wouldn’t blame you.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

This is kind of a cheat answer, but at the time of writing, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still RB14 in ADP Consensus. With the news that Damien Williams has opted out of the 2020 NFL season, CEH’s the clear-cut starting RB in arguably the best offense in the entire league. He’s a talented pass-catcher out of the backfield and will be heavily utilized in this fashion. The sky’s the limit for CEH in year one and he’s an absolute steal at his current ADP.
– Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

It’s obviously Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but that’s cheating because his ADP hasn’t caught up to the Damien Williams news, so I’ll go with Leonard Fournette. Yes, the Jaguars looked to be trying everything under the sun to move Fournette, but they didn’t, and they didn’t bring in competition for carries. Chris Thompson will siphon off some of the receiving work, but Fournette should offset that loss with some positive touchdown regression. Fournette was the ninth-ranked running back in half-PPR formats last year, but he’s now going as RB14. He can easily outperform that draft price.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

Q2. Who has the greatest bust potential in Round 3?

As much as I hate to say it, A.J. Brown comes with the most bust potential in this round. His upside is certainly worth a selection in the fourth/fifth round, but at this price, you’re just asking for problems. He plays for a team that under Mike Vrabel, has thrown the ball just 448 and 432 times over the last two seasons. Even with a massive 25 percent target share, he’d be sitting at just 110-115 targets. There are safer players in this range.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

Amari Cooper‘s draft price at WR9 is shocking to me. While there are a lot of vacated targets from last season, the Cowboys replaced Randall Cobb with CeeDee Lamb, which is a dramatic upgrade. Lamb could easily soak up 100 targets in this offense, while Michael Gallup figures to still be heavily involved. Cooper’s volatility, plus the presence of other talented receiving options in this offense, causes me to pass on drafting Cooper early on in the third round every single time.
– Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

I don’t expect Cooper Kupp to be a bust but given what the Rams’ offense looked like in the second half of last year, there is certainly potential. Tyler Higbee‘s emergence kept Kupp off the field far more often than in the first half, and his targets and production went down accordingly. With Brandin Cooks gone, you can assume that the Rams will figure out a way to get Kupp involved more, but with the uncertainty, there’s obviously bust potential.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

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