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Round 10 Sleepers and Busts (2020 Fantasy Football)

Aug 14, 2020

Every round of a fantasy football draft brings with it decisions to be made, pitfalls to avoid and potential league-winning upside if you make the right picks. And our analysts are here to make sure you’re well prepared for every round of your draft; here are their thoughts on what to do – and what not to do – with your 10th-round pick (rounds based on consensus ADP in 1/2 PPR scoring formats as of Aug. 3):

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Q1. Who has the greatest sleeper potential in Round 10?

You want to follow the targets at tight end, and Hayden Hurst is going to get plenty of them in the Falcons offense. They never replaced Mohamed Sanu in the offense and felt the position was of enough importance to trade a second-round pick for Hurst after allowing Austin Hooper to walk in free agency. Hurst has legitimate top-five tight end upside this year. It was tempting to say Diontae Johnson, as he’s another favorite sleepers of mine in this range.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

There are a couple of players that I like in this range, but Hayden Hurst has to be my answer here. Hurst is walking into an incredible opportunity in Atlanta’s high-powered passing attack that turned Austin Hooper into the TE1 for a significant portion of the season last year. Hurst is unlikely to turn in that type of performance, but he’s a fantastic selection in the 10th round. Hurst should drastically outperform his ADP this season.
– Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

There is no better evidence for why you should wait to draft your tight end than the fact that you can snag Hayden Hurst in the 10th round. Hurst was sixth in yards per target last year and was​PFF’s eighth-highest graded tight end. Dirk Koetter’s offense likes to target the tight end, as Austin Hooper saw 60 targets through eight games last year and Tony Gonzalez saw 118 targets per season under Koetter. Add in that Hurst is likely to run routes out of the slot this year and you have all the makings of a super-sleeper who is in for a big year.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

Q2. Who has the greatest bust potential in Round 10?

I’m going with Noah Fant here. He saw 66 targets his rookie year and ranked 15th in expected fantasy points among tight ends. The discerning part is that he didn’t tally more than four targets in any game with Drew Lock. In fact, he averaged just 2.8 targets per game with him, while averaging 4.7 targets per game with the other quarterbacks. We’ve now watched the Broncos add three talented pass-catching options in Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon this offseason, which won’t help his target share go up.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

It’s hard to definitively say that any player in this range will be a bust, but Mike Williams has a very difficult path ahead of him to return even WR42 value. This passing attack is going to take a major step backwards from previous seasons and Williams is going to lose Philip Rivers just chucking the ball up to him deep downfield. Tyrod Taylor takes care of the football and he’ll be less inclined to take advantage of Williams’ skill set. While Justin Herbert is more of a fit for what Williams brings to the table, it’s unlikely that we see Herbert behind center any time soon. Even at his lower price tag, Williams is unlikely to ever be rolled into your starting lineup with confidence.
– Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

One of the reasons Johnson has such high bust potential in my opinion is because he’s one of the trendiest breakout picks this season after finding success last year despite sub-par quarterback play. Johnson could have a huge season, but he has to share targets with JuJu Smith-Schuster, James White, Eric Ebron, and James Conner. We have no idea what Ben Roethlisberger‘s arm is going to be like after missing last year, or whether he’ll push the ball downfield as much as he used to after his elbow injury. In other words, there are plenty of things working against Johnson, so much so that he could easily disappoint expectations even with his draft price.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

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