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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (9/25)

Sep 25, 2020

It’s always fun to cover elimination games, and that’s just what we have here. After a victory for Miami in Game 4, they now lead this series 3-1. That means all hands will be on deck for Boston, and you have to expect that they’ll come out with some fury. That is why Vegas has them as a 2.5-point favorite in this game, and it should make for a fun slate. With that in mind, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings >>

Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Kemba Walker (BOS) vs. MIA $8,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. BOS $8,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Marcus Smart (BOS) vs. MIA $7,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Walker has been struggling a bit in these playoffs, but he’s still scored at least 32 DK points in five-straight games.
  • Dragic has been amazing since his reinsertion into the starting lineup, and he’s averaging nearly 40 DraftKings points per game since taking over.
  • Smart has at least 28 fantasy points in eight-straight games and hasn’t been affected by the return of Gordon Hayward.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jaylen Brown (BOS) vs. MIA $9,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Tyler Herro (MIA) vs. BOS $7,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Duncan Robinson (MIA) vs. BOS $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

  • Brown has been a revalation in the bubble, averaging 37.1 DK points per game in the postseason.
  • Herro had the best game of his career on Wednesday, dropping 37 points. That has raised his price to the highest it’s ever been.
  • Robinson is a sharpshooter who’s dependent on whether his shot is falling. That’s clear when you see that he had just 11 fantasy points in Game 3 but dropped 31 in Game 2. Use him at your own risk.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jimmy Butler (MIA) vs. BOS $9,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Gordon Hayward (BOS) vs. MIA $6,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Andre Iguodala (MIA) vs. BOS $3,200 ⭐⭐⭐ High

  • Butler has established a 35-point floor in this series, but he hasn’t had many monster games.
  • Hayward has scored between 25-30 fantasy points in each of his first two games since returning from injury.
  • Iguodala played 27 minutes in Game 4, and that alone makes him a solid option here at just $3,200.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jayson Tatum (BOS) vs. MIA $10,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jae Crowder (MIA) vs. BOS $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Derrick Jones Jr. (MIA) vs. BOS $1,800 ⭐⭐ High

  • Tatum has been amazing, and we’ll discuss that more later.
  • Crowder is one of my favorite values out there, and we’ll talk about that later, too.
  • Jones could see 15 minutes, and if he scores a fantasy point-per minute, he’d be a solid value below $2K.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bam Adebayo (MIA) vs. BOS $9,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Daniel Theis (BOS) vs. MIA $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Robert Williams (BOS) vs. MIA $2,600 ⭐⭐ High

  • Adebayo has been amazing in this series, and we’ll talk about that in the next section.
  • Theis is a fantastic value, and he’s scored at least 17 DK points in 13-straight games while averaging 24 fantasy points per game in that span.
  • Williams can be a monster in limited minutes, and that could make him a viable punt play.

3 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Jayson Tatum (BOS) $10,600: Tatum has been the best player in this series and one of the best players in the bubble. In fact, he’s averaging 48.2 DK points per game in the playoffs and 50.7 fantasy points per game in this series.
  • Bam Adebayo (MIA) $9,800: Adebayo has been special throughout his breakout season and has been especially good against this weak Boston frontcourt. That’s evident when you see that he has at least 44 DK points in all four games of this series, averaging 49 fantasy points per game.
  • Jae Crowder (MIA) $5,600: Crowder is far from a stud, but he’s my best salary-saver option of the day. Before struggling in Game 4, Crowder had at least 27 DraftKings points in seven-straight games, averaging 31 fantasy points per game in that span.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $9,400: Butler is obviously an All-Star player, but he’s taken a back seat to the rest of his teammates in this series. You can see that by the fact that he hasn’t scored over 43 DK points in seven-straight games, averaging 36 fantasy points per game. That might sound fine but it’s not enough for a guy priced this high.
  • Tyler Herro (MIA) $7,800: Everyone saw Herro provide that gem in Game 4, and that’s going to put him in everyone’s lineup. That makes me want to stay away, and the stark price increase makes me want to fade him altogether.
  • Gordon Hayward (BOS) $6,400: Hayward has been coming off the Celtics bench in his return to action, and he’s scored fewer than 28 DK points in both outings since coming back from injury. That makes him a tough sell.

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings >>

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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