FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Celtics at Heat (9/19)
It’s do-or-die time for the Celtics now, as they risk falling into an 0-3 hole with a loss to Miami tonight. The well-rounded team effort of both squads means there’s some volatility among the most expensive plays, some great mid-tier options, and some high-risk tournament plays. We’ll break down all three today.
This is the only matchup on Saturday’s slate, and FanDuel is offering a single-game contest to keep the DFS fun going tonight. For single-game contests, you’ll get $60,000 to spend on five players: MVP (2x value), STAR (1.5x value), PRO (1.2x value), and two utility (UTIL) players without multiplier bonuses. Today, I’ll be offering my favorite picks for the multiplier positions, money-saving options, and general strategy for this contest.
MVP, STAR, PRO
Jayson Tatum (PF – BOS): $16,000
The Celtics are down 0-2 to Miami, but it’s through no fault of Tatum. The young forward has been huge, averaging 25.5 points, 9.5 boards, 4.5 dimes, and 3.5 combined blocks/steals through the first two games of the series. A majority of that came in Game 1, however and after three games in which he averaged better than 60 FD points, Tatum came back to earth in Game 2. He’ll likely need a Herculean effort in Game 3 to keep his team afloat, and a big game is certainly in the cards. He and Bam Adebayo should rightfully be the most popular MVP plays.
Bam Adebayo (PF – MIA): $15,000
With his thunderous block on Jayson Tatum in the Heat’s Game 1 OT victory, Adebayo likely cemented himself in Heat lore and Celtic fan nightmares forever.
Game 2: Thurs. – 7pm/et, ESPN pic.twitter.com/Z3K6xhvKFb
— NBA (@NBA) September 16, 2020
That highlight aside, the big man has been uber consistent in the playoffs, scoring at least 44 FD points in six of his last eight games, including both of his contests against Boston. Adebayo has averaged 40.7 FD points overall in this year’s postseason, and he should be locked into lineups tonight.
Jimmy Butler (SG – MIA): $14,000
Butler has averaged 35.9 FD points through the first two games of this series, and he’s only gone for more than 40 FD points once over his last six games. The 50-point ceiling is enticing, but there are cheaper plays who could return similar value. Butler’s upside makes him worthy of a premium roster spot, but understand that he’s not a must-play here.
Jaylen Brown (SF – BOS): $13,000
Brown finished out the series against Toronto with three huge games and averaged 47.3 FD points in that span. He’s been largely neutralized against Miami, however, and he’s averaged just 29.1 FD points through two games against the Heat. His $13K price tag makes him a tough sell here.
Kemba Walker (PG – BOS): $12,000
Over his last nine playoff games, Walker has topped 40 FD points just once, though he’s consistently scored in the 30’s. Considering guys like Jae Crowder and Tyler Herro have consistently scored in the 30s at a lower cost, a bad performance here could be disastrous for lineups, but his upside and cost don’t reflect his big-time upside. Walker seemed to be cooking in Game 2, so there’s a chance he builds on that momentum in a must-win Game 3. Just like Jimmy Butler, there is some risk in rostering Kemba, but his salary is bit more friendly.
Goran Dragic (PG – MIA): $11,000
Dragic has averaged 36.0 FD points in the playoffs, including 39.8 in two games against Boston. His ability to contribute quality numbers across multiple categories makes him a high-floor, high-upside play, especially at his salary. Given the volatility of some of the more expensive options tonight, Dragic makes a nice addition to one of your premium lineup spots that gives you more money to spend on some of the cheaper plays listed below without having to dive deep for salary-saving dart throws.
Tyler Herro (SG – MIA): $10,000
Over his last three games, Herro has averaged 12.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 6.7 assists, while posting 33.9 FD points in the process. The rookie has been cooking, and his ability to deliver in the clutch has kept him on the floor at the end of games. The price is friendly for that kind of production.
Jae Crowder (SF – MIA): $9,500
Over his last six games, Crowder has averaged 16.5 points and 4.5 triples per contest, providing a healthy 31 FD points in that span. He’s been integral to Miami’s playoff success with his 3-and-D skills, so he should continue to see big minutes moving forward. At just $9.5K, he’s an excellent value for this contest.
Marcus Smart (SG – BOS) : $9,500
Aside from a blowup in Game 6 against Toronto, Smart’s fantasy value has been reliant on his scoring. He’s hit at least 25 FD points in nine straight, though, providing him a rock-solid floor, despite a limited ceiling. If you need a safe play at an affordable price, Smart makes a smart play.
Brad Wanamaker (PG – BOS) : $8,500
The sophomore has seen his role expand this season, and he’s continued to play solid minutes off the bench into the playoffs. He’s averaged 14.0 FD points in 18.2 minutes throughout the playoffs, though he’s seen at least 24 minutes in both of the Celtics’ games against Miami. He unexpectedly went off for 38.6 points in Game 1, and while that’s not likely to be replicated, it’s an encouraging ceiling for a guy in this price range.
Duncan Robinson (SG – MIA): $8,000
Robinson’s outcomes have ranged from 2.2 FD points to 32.5 FD points, and his production is tied to his three-point scoring. When he’s hot (he’s hit at least six triples in three games this postseason), he can return plenty of value, but if he’s not scoring, he could tank your lineup. If you’re looking for a stable floor in cash games, Robinson’s not for you. He’s purely a tournament play, even fresh off a 29.4-point performance.
Daniel Theis (PF – BOS): $8,000
Theis has had a tough time contending with Bam Adebayo and Miami’s defense, averaging just 5.0 points, 6.0 boards, 3.0 assists and just 17.7 FD points through two games. That’s a stark contrast to the 10.1 points, 8.3 boards, and 27.9 FD points he averaged in seven games against Toronto. He showed off his upside in that series, but he’s a boom-or-bust option against the Heat.
Kelly Olynyk (C – MIA) : 6,500
Olynyk got off to a good start in the playoffs, scoring 16.3 FD points in just 14.1 minutes per contest over his first nine games. Those numbers have come down to just 7.7 FD points in 11.5 minutes per game against Boston as lineups tighten up. He’s a high-risk option, but if you want to cram in an extra stud, Olynyk’s bottom-dollar salary can help you do that.
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