When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.
Games/Teams to Target
- Atlanta at New Orleans (Over/Under 51.0)
- New Orleans Team Total: 28.0
- Buffalo Team Total: 23.0
- Green Bay at Indianapolis (Over/Under 51.0)
- Indianapolis Team Total: 26.75
- Green Bay Team Total: 24.25
- Tennessee at Baltimore (Over/Under 49.0)
- Baltimore Team Total: 27.75
- Tennessee Team Total: 21.25
- Dallas at Minnesota (Over/Under 48.0)
- Minnesota Team Total: 27.5
- Dallas Team Total: 20.5
DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
Matt Ryan (QB – ATL):$7,800 / Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL): $7,800
Fresh off a bye, the Atlanta Falcons are set to take on a Saints team that has looked dominant over the last four months. Though it is unclear whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill will get the start under center, the game currently carries an over/under of 51 points, which is the highest on the main slate.
Ryan has been steady for most of 2020, and we have seen him post big fantasy outings in shootouts, which Atlanta encounters often. Todd Gurley has taken away many scoring opportunities for the Atlanta passing game, as he has tallied nine rushing touchdowns through ten weeks of the season. However, the New Orleans Saints are the toughest matchup for fantasy running backs, which means that most of Atlanta’s scoring will likely come through the air.
The Falcons will be happy to welcome back third-year receiver Calvin Ridley, who was off to a hot start to his 2020 campaign before leaving Week Eight’s game early with a foot injury. You should monitor his health throughout the week, but he is a terrific stacking option with Matt Ryan since teammate WR Julio Jones ($8,100) figures to see the most coverage from standout corner Marshon Lattimore. The shutdown corner is currently dealing with an oblique injury, so we will want to monitor his injury status throughout the week as well.
Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Saints, I have faith that this New Orleans offense will put up points against a porous Atlanta defense. If Jameis Winston gets the nod, I think Michael Thomas ($8,200) is a great buy. His blowup game has to be on the horizon, and it would make sense to be against a division opponent that he has dominated in his young career. If Taysom Hill is the primary signal-caller, then go with Alvin Kamara ($9,700).
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC): $8,500 / Keenan Allen (WR – LAC): $8,000
Though this stack has finally become more expensive on FanDuel, it is tough to ignore the positive home matchup in Week 11. We typically like to attack games that allow bring-back options on the other side, but this slate doesn’t present many opportunities to do so. Therefore, I’m perfectly fine with playing this Chargers stack without any Jets in our DFS lineup.
We also love to find quarterbacks who have a narrow arrangement of targets. That is certainly the case with Justin Herbert. Though Herbert has shown the ability to spread the ball around, particularly on touchdowns, Allen has seen the vast majority of the targets ever since Herbert took over. Besides a game he left early with an injury, Allen’s lowest target total was seven, which came in Week 10 against a Dolphins defense that continues to prove itself as a top-three unit in the AFC.
Allen has ten receptions or a score in five-straight games, and he should see little resistance from a Jets defense that has allowed fantasy points to receivers all season long. While I won’t bet targeting any Jets players in particular for DFS lineups, I do think that Joe Flacco and the running game can score enough points to keep it interesting against a Chargers team that has been disappointing on defense.
Alex Smith (QB – WAS): $8,500 / Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS): $7,300
Has there been a better story in the NFL this year than seeing Alex Smith return to a football field? In my eyes, he should be a shoo-in for the Comeback Player of the Year after literally battling back from a life-threatening injury to return to the very field where he suffered it. Oh, and all at 36 years old.
Even more incredibly, Smith has thrown for more passing yards than any other quarterback over the last two weeks. He tossed for a career-high 390 yards on 38 completions in his first start in 728 days. On top of being a great comeback story, Smith gets set to face a Bengals defense that is a top-five matchup for fantasy quarterbacks.
Despite throwing for 390 passing yards in Week 11, all of Washington’s scores came on the ground. As a result, it’s reasonable to expect that the veteran quarterback is due for some touchdown regression. Terry McLaurin hasn’t been disrupted by the various changes under center, as he has seen at least seven targets in every single game this season. In the past two games with Smith as the primary signal-caller, McLaurin has hauled in 14 of 17 targets for 210 yards and a touchdown. He is currently ranked as the WR7 in our ECR for Week 11, and I think his quarterback is an excellent play, too. Smith won’t be a popular pick despite the feel-good story.
Washington’s defense has been tough against the pass, so I think that rostering the Bengals’ running game is in play as a bring-it-back option. If Joe Mixon ($7,500) misses another game, Giovani Bernard ($6,300) will provide great value for DFS players.
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