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Here we are in Week 15. Only a few weeks left until the end of the regular season. Hard to believe the season is almost done already, and equally hard to believe the NFL was able to pull it off with Covid-19. The games are still being affected by it, and we have a few more cases this week that will create some value, but let’s hope 2021 is the year we can get Covid List out of our vocabulary. Here are this week’s picks.
Chase Daniel (DET) $6,500 @ TEN
With Matthew Stafford’s status still in doubt, there is a good chance Daniels is the starting quarterback on Sunday. The Titans rank 28th in DVOA against the pass and only four teams give up more points to the quarterback. At $6,500, he would be one of the cheapest starting quarterbacks this week, making him a huge value if he does indeed draw the start.
Leonard Fournette (TB) $5,500 @ ATL
Ronald Jones was placed on the Covid-IR and is very unlikely to be cleared in time to play on Sunday, leaving Fournette as the lead back. The Falcons are surprisingly good against opposing running backs, ranking sixth in DVOA vs. the run. However, anytime you have featured back in a high-powered offense that only costs you $5,500, it is a no-brainer.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) $5,800 @ DAL
This pick will depend on the availability of Raheem Mostert who is dealing with an ankle injury. The Cowboys’ run defense is 27th in points allowed to running backs and rank 25th in DVOA versus the run. Wilson Jr. is also a better receiver than Mostert and could see some check-downs and screens.
Kendrick Bourne (SF) $4,800 @ DAL
Bourne is second on the team in targets this season, behind only Brandon Aiyuk, and, with Deebo Samuels done for the season, should see an uptick in targets and production. The Cowboys defense is ranked 23rd in DVOA versus the pass and give up the fifth-most points to wide receivers on the season.
Devin Duvernay (BAL) $5,100 vs. JAC
This pick is a product of ‘Last Man Standing.” With Marquise Brown, James Proche, and Miles Boykin all placed on Covid-IR, Duvernay and Willie Snead will be the two main wide receivers this week. With that said, the Ravens wide receivers haven’t exactly been DFS gold, heck, they aren’t even DFS Aluminium, but Dunvernay is a big play wide receiver that could pay off in one play. Only the Jets are ranked lower than the Jags in DVOA versus the pass, and they give up the eighth-most points to wide receivers.
Cole Kmet (CHI) $5,100 @ MIN
There are not a lot of cheap tight ends I like this week, but forced to choose one, I will go back to the same guy I had last week. He wasn’t great last week, but he was vultured a touchdown by Jimmy Graham. Graham has been limited in practice this week and may not be active on Sunday, giving Kmet the lion’s share of the snaps at tight end.
Dallas Cowboys $3,600 vs. SF
I picked on Dallas’s defense a couple of times in this article, and yes, they are bad, but so is 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens. He likes to throw the ball to the other team or take unnecessary sacks while holding on to the ball too long. At $3,600, the Cowboys may be a chalk defense this week.
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